NASA has postponed its inaugural two crewed Artemis lunar missions to 2026 and 2027, respectively, and this alteration could significantly impact the agency’s Artemis initiative and its rivalry with China for dominance in space.
Artemis 2, intended to transport a crew of three Americans and one Canadian astronaut around the moon, was scheduled for launch in September 2025. The mission has now been rescheduled for April 2026, as declared by NASA on December 5. Artemis 3, which aims to place humans on the surface of our closest celestial companion for the first time in more than 50 years, has also been pushed back, from late 2026 to mid-2027.
The recent postponements are partly due to an issue with the Orion crew vessel and its thermal shield, which was identified following a “skip reentry” during the uncrewed Artemis 1 mission in late 2022.
“We have since concluded that while the capsule was oscillating through the atmosphere during that planned skip entry, heat accumulated within the outer layer of the heat shield, causing gases to develop and become trapped inside the heat shield,” stated NASA Deputy Administrator Pam Melroy during a December 5 press briefing. “This led to an internal increase in pressure and resulted in cracking and uneven shedding of that outer layer.”
Related: NASA delays Artemis 2 moon mission to 2026, Artemis 3 astronaut landing to mid-2027
Artemis 2 will still utilize Orion, but with a modified reentry path to better handle the resultant heat. “The safety of our astronauts remains our top priority in our decisions,” said NASA Administrator Bill Nelson.
The postponement grants NASA additional time to comprehend and resolve the Orion issue comprehensively, while also preparing the landing systems and other elements such as lunar extravehicular activity suits for the missions. This time will also facilitate enhancements and improved safety measures. However, it may disrupt the continuity for contractors and suppliers, which is significant; an irregular flight schedule can result in inefficiencies and a decline in expertise.
However, most significantly, the announcement regarding the delays in the Artemis missions arrives amidst a period of change for NASA. It introduces a degree of uncertainty regarding the missions themselves, their framework, and potentially the entire Artemis program.
Donald Trump won the presidential election in November and is expected to return to the White House in January. He campaigned on a promise of budget cuts and tax reductions. This could potentially threaten NASA programs viewed as expensive or inefficient.
One facet of Artemis rumored to be at immediate risk is the Space Launch System (SLS), the massive rocket designed to propel Orion to the moon. The launcher has faced substantial scrutiny for years due to excessive cost overruns and multiple developmental delays. A mobile launch tower for the SLS has similarly suffered from cost overruns and delays. The U.S. Government Accountability Office (GAO) indicated in September 2023 that the rocket is “unaffordable” for sustained space exploration.
Trump has publicly appointed Jared Isaacman, a billionaire with two private spaceflights using SpaceX equipment, to lead NASA. Elon Musk, Trump’s wealthiest supporter and actively engaged in the presidential campaign, maintains a close relationship with the president-elect and is believed to have the capacity to influence policies.
This has raised the possibility that a new Trump administration could substitute SLS with Starship from Musk’s SpaceX. Starship is already integrated into the framework for future Artemis missions, and if proven successful regarding reusability and cost-effectiveness, it would offer significant advantages over the pricey, expendable SLS. Such a transition would not be straightforward, but the recent postponements may facilitate this shift.
In terms of international rivalry, the delay of Artemis 3 to 2027 further tightens the gap between NASA’s return to the moon and China’s ambition to send its first astronauts to the lunar surface. Beijing has committed to a mission that aims to place two astronauts on the moon before 2030 and is actively developing all the necessary elements to accomplish this, including a new rocket, spacecraft, lander, and launch pad.
Achieving the first crewed lunar landing this century would be a symbolic triumph for either nation. It would also signify momentum and technological capability, potentially offering the perception of leadership in space.
One additional possibility, however, is that NASA abandons the moon as its primary target, seeking to explore further into space. While NASA regards the moon as a stepping stone to Mars, it might, conceivably, opt to skip this phase.
Musk has been very outspoken regarding his aspirations to send humans to Mars, with Starship being crucial to this objective. An administration aligned with Musk might also decide to support Starship and shift the focus from the moon to the Red Planet. Nevertheless, such decisions would likely involve a complex interplay of stakeholders and institutions such as Congress, making significant alterations challenging to implement.
However, significant changes could occur, with considerable geopolitical implications. Both the U.S. and China are vying to secure partners for their respective Artemis and International Lunar Research Station (ILRS) initiatives, and discontinuing Artemis could greatly enhance China’s efforts.
There would also be implications for NASA’s collaborations with the European Space Agency and its member nations, Japan, the United Arab Emirates, and others, who are engaged in Artemis and ventures like the lunar Gateway. It was also during the first Trump administration that Artemis was initiated, and the new president might seek to supervise a victorious return to the moon.
NASA officials emphasized on December 5 that the Artemis program is regarded as a foundational element for propelling human exploration and for the journey from the moon to Mars and beyond. The agency aims to ensure a consistent flight schedule, while minimizing gaps between missions and applying the insights gained. Nonetheless, changes may be forthcoming regarding the agency’s plans for Artemis and beyond.