Unraveling the Mystery: Insights into the Azerbaijan Airlines Tragedy

On 25 December, 38 individuals perished when an Azerbaijan Airlines aircraft, which was scheduled to land in Russia, crash-landed in Kazakhstan.

The details surrounding the accident are still hazy, but initial evidence indicates it may have sustained damage from missiles launched by a Russian air-defense system during its descent toward Chechnya.

Here is what is known about Flight J2-8243.

Early on Christmas Day, Flight J2-8243 departed from Baku Airport, the capital of Azerbaijan, destined for Grozny, the capital of the Russian region of Chechnya.

The flight had 67 passengers, the majority of whom were Azerbaijani citizens, along with some from Russia, Kazakhstan, and Kyrgyzstan.

The aircraft was an Embraer 190, operated by Azerbaijan Airlines.

When the flight neared Grozny, thick fog enveloped it, according to accounts from surviving passengers.

They recounted the pilot’s attempts to land the aircraft twice under these challenging conditions.

Survivors report that during the third attempt, a series of explosions were felt impacting the plane.

“On the third attempt, there was an explosion… part of the aircraft’s skin was torn off,” one passenger shared with Russian television.

A flight attendant, Zulfuqar Asadov, informed local media that the strike’s impact “triggered panic onboard.”

“We endeavored to soothe [the passengers], directing them to their seats. At that moment, another strike occurred, injuring my arm,” he mentioned.

A recording taken aboard the aircraft by a passenger displayed oxygen masks dangling from above.

Rashad Nabiyev, Azerbaijan’s transport minister, stated: “Every [survivor] unanimously reported hearing three explosive sounds while the plane was over Grozny.”

He added that the aircraft suffered from “external disturbances” and was damaged both externally and internally as it attempted to land.

In the preceding weeks, Ukraine targeted Chechnya and other regions within the Russian Caucasus using drone strikes.

Following the incident, Moscow officials declared that such assaults had initiated a protocol to close the airspace above Grozny.

Local authorities reported that a drone was shot down by air defense above a shopping center in Vladikavkaz, located in nearby North Ossetia, that morning.

It remains uncertain whether the closed-airspace protocol – referred to as a “carpet plan” – was activated prior to or during the time Flight J2-8243 was within Russian airspace.

Subsequent to the incident over Grozny, the plane diverted approximately 450km (280 miles) eastward to Aktau Airport in Kazakhstan.

Reasons for the diversion over the Caspian Sea remain unclear, considering it was a substantially longer journey compared to several alternatives.

Russian aviation authorities have asserted that the plane’s pilots were “provided with options for alternate airports,” but opted for Aktau.

Flight tracking data from the website Flight Radar indicates the aircraft flew in a zig-zag pattern as it neared Aktau, before ultimately crash-landing just kilometers from the airport.

Footage from near the site showcases the plane quickly descending through the atmosphere before colliding with the ground and skidding for several hundred meters in a burst of flames.

38 individuals lost their lives while 29 survived, with some sustaining significant injuries. Astonishingly, a number of survivors were observed walking and crawling away from the wreckage of the aircraft.

The pilots are credited with saving lives by managing to land part of the aircraft, despite their own fatalities in the accident.

It is thought that the majority of those who remained alive were positioned in the back.

Preliminary reports from Russian outlets indicated that the plane encountered a group of birds.

Nonetheless, aviation specialists and others in Azerbaijan suspect that the aircraft’s GPS systems were compromised by electronic interference and subsequently damaged by fragments from Russian air-defense missile explosions.

On Friday, John Kirby, the national security spokesperson for the White House, informed journalists that the US had “preliminary indications” pointing to Russia’s involvement, but he refrained from providing further details.

Up until now, the Azerbaijani government has steered clear of directly blaming Russia – however, sources within the Azerbaijani government disclosed to Reuters that the probe has already pinpointed the weapon responsible for targeting the flight as the Russian Pantsir-S anti-aircraft system.

Thus far, the Kremlin has declined to comment on claims that the aircraft was struck by Russian armaments.

“An inquiry… is currently in progress and until conclusions arise from the investigation, we do not feel entitled to make any evaluations,” stated spokesperson Dmitry Peskov.

The flight recorders from the plane, which document information to assist in determining the cause of the incident, have been recovered.

Reports from Baku indicate that both Russia and Kazakhstan have suggested establishing a committee from the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) – a regional alliance led by Russia – to investigate the incident, but Azerbaijan has instead insisted on an international investigation.

Azerbaijan Airlines along with several other carriers have halted flights to certain Russian cities in the wake of the incident.