“Global Drying: How Three-Quarters of Our Planet’s Land is Transforming Life as We Know It”

As the planet becomes hotter, its land is turning increasingly arid and saline, resulting in significant implications for the 8 billion people living on Earth — almost a third of whom already inhabit areas where water is becoming more difficult to access and where cultivating crops and raising livestock is increasingly challenging.

The phenomenon of climate change is expediting this trend. Recent studies indicate that global warming has rendered 77% of the Earth’s territory drier in the last thirty years, while simultaneously increasing the prevalence of overly saline soils.

Drylands, collectively, now encompass over 40% of the planet (excluding Antarctica), a likely persistent outcome of climate change, according to a pivotal report released by the United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification, also known as UNCCD. Another recent study from the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) indicates that nearly 10% of global soils are suffering from salt overabundance, with an additional 2.5 billion acres jeopardized.

These interconnected developments pose serious threats to agricultural yield, biodiversity, and the health of ecosystems, while also worsening food and water insecurity. Together, these two documents raise an urgent warning: If the global community does not take steps to reduce emissions, these changes will persist, creating dire consequences.

“Without coordinated efforts, billions are facing a future characterized by hunger, displacement, and economic downturn,” stated Nichole Barger, a specialist in arid lands ecology working close with UNCCD.

Effects of climate change

water.

The alterations are not confined to areas already deemed dry or slated for desertification. In modeling scenarios of high global emissions, researchers have determined that comparable changes may occur in the Midwest, central Mexico, and the Mediterranean region, among others. The researchers do not foresee a reversal of this trend.

What Hannah Waterhouse, a soil and water researcher at the University of California, Santa Cruz perceives as “critical, and disconcerting to stress” is that this expansion transpired under circumstances that are not nearly as warm as what is anticipated. This indicates that the dilemma will only intensify and, as food and water become increasingly scarce, could lead to widespread conflict, she asserts.

“We can observe the current geopolitical and ecological situations occurring globally to predict future outcomes,” Waterhouse commented. “Consider what is happening in Sudan presently, where climate change is worsening resource scarcity, intertwining with governance and geopolitics, resulting in violent repercussions for civilians.”

Understanding Aridity vs. Drought

It is important to differentiate aridity from drought. Drought is typically characterized as a sudden and alarming, albeit temporary, lack of water usually triggered by low rainfall, elevated temperatures, minimal humidity, and unusual wind patterns. Arid regions, however, endure enduring, long-lasting climatic situations in which evaporation exceeds precipitation, generating circumstances that hinder sustainability of life. This condition is far more nuanced than a drought, yet equally significant.

“Droughts eventually come to an end,” Ibrahim Thiaw, executive secretary of UNCCD, remarked in a statement. “When a region’s climate becomes drier, however, the capacity to revert to previous conditions diminishes. The arid climates presently affecting vast territories across the globe will not revert to their former state, and this transition redefines existence on Earth.”

The ongoing expansion of drylands is widely acknowledged as the primary contributor to the degradation of agricultural systems on Earth and poses challenges in producing sufficient food. Such circumstances have also been associated with declines in gross domestic product, extensive migration, health repercussions, and increasing mortality rates. They amplify wildfires, sandstorms, and dust storms while impairing ecosystems. Additionally, they foster erosion and the salinization of both water and soil.

Climate change is already impeding food production, resulting inone in 11 individuals globally faced hunger last year, and the findings indicate that this issue will worsen, especially in large parts of Africa, the Middle East, and South Asia. Following the business-as-usual emissions trajectory, sub-Saharan Africa might experience a reduction of up to 22% in its existing agricultural output capacity by 2050. The cultivation of essential food crops that flourish in regions highly vulnerable to dryness, such as soybeans, wheat, and rice, might also see a significant decline globally.

Saltier soils

The swift growth of the world’s drylands is “100% interconnected” with the concurrent increase in salinized soils, stated Maria Konyushkova, a soil scientist at the Food and Agriculture Organization and the principal author of the report released by the U.N. agency on Dec. 11. The more arid a region becomes, the lesser the availability of freshwater. This forces farmers to depend on brackish water, which raises soil salinity.

Although water-soluble salt is an element in all soils, an excess can hinder plants’ ability to absorb water, effectively robbing them of moisture and stunting their growth. High salinity also alters soil composition, making it more susceptible to erosion. All of these factors reduce soil fertility and could result in yield declines of up to 70% for crops such as rice and beans in the nations most affected, the researchers discovered. Approximately 10% of the world’s irrigated farmland and a similar percentage of its rain-fed farmland have already been affected by this alarming trend.

As it currently stands, 10 nations, including China, Russia, and the United States, constitute 70% of the world’s salt-impacted soils. This situation is costing the global agricultural sector at least $27 billion annually. If global temperatures continue rising at their present pace, earlier studies have projected that more than 50% of the world’s cropland could similarly be affected by 2050, worsening the diminishing yields that are already fueling escalating hunger challenges.

The future direction was the focal point of UNCCD COP16 earlier this month, as delegates from nearly 200 countries convened in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, to engage in discussions about land degradation, desertification, and drought. “We rely on land for our existence,” U.N. Secretary-General António Guterres stated at the conference. “Yet we treat it like dirt.”

Nature-oriented solutions such as agroecology are highlighted among the range of locally-implemented mitigation and adaptation strategies proposed by the two reports, in addition to improved agricultural and water management, technological advancements, and the creation of water-efficient and salt-tolerant crop varieties.

Restoration and resilience

Significant financial investments are also being promoted as solutions. Previous UNCCD reports have indicated that curbing the planet’s pace of land degradation, which is projected to cost the global economy $23 trillion by 2050, would require approximately $4.6 trillion. The organization informed negotiators at the summit that a minimum of $2.6 trillion is essential for restoration and resilience by 2030.

At the conclusion of the summit, just over $12 billion had been committed to address the issue across 80 vulnerable nations, while negotiators left without reaching a legally binding agreement for action.

Waterhouse expressed skepticism regarding some solutions emphasized in the research that she views as “top-down technocratic solutions.” The Great Green Wall, a multibillion-dollar endeavor to plant trees to mitigate desertification in the Sahel region of Africa, serves as one such example. The initiative, initiated in 2007, has faced criticism for contributing to water scarcity and loss of biodiversity.

Konyushkova perceives the two reports as a pressing appeal for governments across the globe to prioritize investments in resilience strategies to tackle what is evidently escalating into a crisis. “All the indicators show that freshwater resources will dwindle … but we have numerous strategies for adaptation,” she remarked. “We must commence these actions immediately because the situation is already upon us. Even if governments are not fully aware, it is already present and deteriorating.”