December Gaming Revenue Takes a Hit: High Single Digit Decline Unveiled by CDC Gaming

The Las Vegas Strip is set to conclude 2024 with six successive months of annual declines in gaming revenue when the figures for December are disclosed later this month. The last instance in which the Strip experienced five consecutive months of decline prior to the pandemic was from January to May 2019. Nevertheless, analysts are not expressing concern that this indicates a negative trend for 2025.

In November, the Strip produced $788.7 million in gaming revenue, marking a decrease of 3.9% compared to November 2023’s $820.8 million.

Throughout the year, the total win for the Strip has dropped by 0.8%.

The revised slot accounting calendar, featuring two fewer weekend days in 2024, a deviation from a normalized slot hold, and reduced baccarat wins contributed to the downturn that would have otherwise aligned closely with November 2023, which was the state’s third-highest month on record.

Carlo Santarelli, an analyst at Deutsche Bank, mentioned that the Strip is up against a challenging comparison in December, as the baccarat hold in 2023 was at 22%. Deutsche is projecting a year-over-year drop in December in the upper single digits.

Barry Jonas from Truist Securities indicated that the Strip’s gaming revenue declined in November, driven by an 18% drop in baccarat wins. While visitation rose by 1%, revenue per room on the Strip fell by 22%, likely indicating the well-documented softness during this year’s F1 event. Despite the overall downturn, improved normalized results were noted, and Strip operators remain optimistic about growth in 2025, looking beyond the challenging first-quarter comparisons from the Super Bowl.

Jonas noted that Las Vegas operators predict more stable trends moving forward as opposed to ongoing tough comparisons. “In general, management teams were optimistic about returning to growth in 2025, buoyed by a strong calendar for groups and events.”

Management at Caesars anticipates cash room revenue to increase year-over-year, largely driven by December, according to Jonas. He also expects fourth-quarter EBITDA in Las Vegas to finish at least on par or better than the previous year.

“January is expected to show year-over-year growth due to CES strength, followed by a decline in February due to Super Bowl comparisons,” Jonas stated. “Overall, management has a positive outlook for Vegas in 2025, supported by strong group pacing, with 2026 (ConAgg, State Farm) looking even more promising.”

Casino consultant Brendan Bussmann, managing partner at B Global, remarked that although the marketplace has faced its hurdles, it remains robust. The inaugural F1 event in 2023 and other happenings made it challenging for gaming revenue to exceed those numbers in 2024. However, 2024 also coincided with economic uncertainty, compounded by persistent inflationary pressures on consumers.

“I’m not worried about it, but we want to see revenue trends upwards,” Bussmann said. “This is a long-term game, not a short-term one.”

Las Vegas has seen an increase in visitation, with more foreign tourists arriving, while domestic visitation has decreased, Bussmann noted.

“I believe that 2025 will still be a strong and solid year,” Bussmann said. “We’ll observe how the economic situation evolves. Over the last four years, gaming floor numbers have continued to thrive, even amid two technical recessions.”