The Ripple Effect: Exploring the Consequences of a TikTok Ban

TikTok may be prohibited in the US starting 19 January – unless the Supreme Court accepts a last-minute legal appeal from its Chinese owner, ByteDance, arguing that such action would be unconstitutional.

However, if the nation’s highest court concurs with lower courts – and Congress – deeming the platform a risk to national security, will this actually prevent Americans from utilizing it?

Might there be ways to circumvent the prohibition – or could president-elect Donald Trump devise a method to thwart a law that he claims to oppose, even if the judiciary sustains it?

TikTok’s CEO Shou Zi Chew will undoubtedly be hopeful – the BBC’s US affiliate CBS reports that he will be present at Trump’s inauguration along with former presidents and their families on 20 January.

Regardless of the fate of the social media application, who stands to gain from the uncertainty surrounding its future?

The most probable approach the US would take to ban TikTok is to instruct app stores, like the Google Play Store and Apple’s App Store, to render it unreachable for download in that area.

US legislators have already advised tech companies to prepare for the removal of the app from their listings if a prohibition is enacted.

This would imply that individuals could no longer utilize a lawful method to access TikTok – although it would also mean that those who already possess it would retain it on their devices.

Since the app would no longer be openly accessible, updates could no longer be provided to users in the US – which would lead to increased bugs and, ultimately, make the app unusable.

Additionally, numerous updates aim to address security vulnerabilities in apps, so a halt in TikTok’s updates could expose millions of devices to hackers.

Certainly, there are methods to circumvent such a ban.

Various videos are already circulating on TikTok advising users on how to utilize a VPN (virtual private network) – a method for making it appear as though you are located in another region.

The region of app stores can also be modified on most gadgets, allowing anyone to theoretically gain access to applications from other nations – although this might lead to additional issues, not to mention potentially violating terms of service agreements.

It is also feasible to install apps acquired from the web by altering a device – which may infringe on copyright laws – and carries its own risks. However, the government has foreseen this scenario and is also suggesting banning “internet hosting services” from granting individuals access to the app.

Thus, if the prohibition took this form, it appears likely that those persistent enough to use TikTok after it is implemented will find a way – though their experience may not be the same as they are accustomed to.

There are still several options available to the government in the future – for instance, after India banned TikTok in 2020, it mandated internet providers to completely block access to the application.

And even if individuals employed a VPN, there could still be methods for TikTok to determine whether a user is situated in the US – subsequently presenting a message indicating the app is not accessible in their region.

It remains uncertain if TikTok would choose to help the government in enforcing its ban – but reports from Reuters suggest that it intends to do so.

A lawyer representing TikTok informed the Supreme Court that he anticipates the app will “go dark” in the US unless it rules in its favor.

The intricacy of the matter means even experts are uncertain about the next steps.

Professor Milton L. Mueller from the Georgia Institute of Technology – who submitted a legal brief supporting TikTok – stated the ambiguity surrounding how far the US could extend its authority to enforce the law complicates understanding what might occur if a ban is implemented.

However, he noted that the consequences on users and the internet itself are evident.

“It would entirely validate the disintegration of the internet along national or jurisdictional lines,” he remarked.

Trump has expressed clear opposition to the legislation – which would be enacted the day prior to his reinstatement in office – urging the Supreme Court to postpone its enforcement as he seeks a “political resolution.”

His incoming national security adviser Mike Waltz informed Fox News that the president-elect was exploring methods to “protect” TikTok despite the court’s decision, assuring that Americans’ access to the app and their data would be safeguarded.

The specific process for achieving that remains uncertain, however – as noted by the Washington Post – one consideration is for Trump to issue an executive order that would halt the law’s enforcement.

“I don’t want to get ahead of our executive orders, but we’re going to establish the conditions to execute that agreement,” stated Mr. Waltz.

Another alternative could involve Trump allowing the law to be effective while instructing the Department of Justice not to implement it.

The administration would essentially inform Apple and Google that they would not face penalties for continuing to provide access to TikTok, meaning while the law would technically remain, it would largely be ineffective.

Naturally, the companies might feel uneasy about violating the law even if assured otherwise – it would effectively compel them to trust the president’s assurance that there would be no consequences.

Until now, ByteDance has firmly stated that no disposal of its key asset within the US is under discussion.

However, might that shift if a ban is indeed enforced – especially when a president known for “the art of the deal” regains the White House?

Prospective buyers are still lining up – with Bloomberg News reporting on Tuesday that the company was contemplating a sale to billionaire Elon Musk, although TikTok has subsequently branded this as “complete fiction.”

Trump’s former treasury secretary Steven Mnuchin and billionaire entrepreneur Frank McCourt are among those who have previously shown interest in acquiring it.

Mr. McCourt, a previous owner of the Los Angeles Dodgers baseball franchise, claimed to have obtained $20 billion in verbal commitments from a consortium of investors to bid for TikTok.

There is even a more unconventional – and significantly less serious – suggested owner.

The largest YouTuber globally, MrBeast is reportedly in consideration to strike a deal after he had billionaires contacting him about it.

While it may appear humorous, he possesses a significant financial motivation to attempt to sustain the app – MrBeast has amassed over 100m followers on TikTok.

TikTok claims it has 170 million users within the US who, on average, spend 51 minutes each day on the application in 2024.

If TikTok is banned or rendered less functional, it creates a significant opportunity for its major tech competitors states Jasmine Enberg, analyst at Insider Intelligence.

“Meta’s Instagram Reels and YouTube Shorts, owned by Google, are the most suitable options for displaced users, content creators, and advertisers,” she asserts.

Facebook could also gain, although Ms. Enberg notes that, consistent with all Meta platforms, the contentious policy changes introduced by CEO Mark Zuckerberg might reduce its attractiveness.

Users attract advertisers – thus a ban could represent a considerable financial advantage for those platforms.

“Chief Marketing Officers with whom we’ve spoken confirmed they will shift their media expenditures to Meta and Google if they can no longer promote on TikTok – this mirrors the behavior we observed in India when TikTok was banned in 2020,” stated Forrester principal analyst Kelsey Chickering.

Lemon8, also a property of ByteDance, would have been a logical alternative for individuals post-ban – but the legislation specifies it also pertains to other applications operated or owned by the company. This indicates that Lemon8 will probably also encounter restrictions in the US.

Other likely beneficiaries include Twitch, which gained popularity for hosting livestreams – a favored function on TikTok. Twitch is particularly recognized among gamers, although it continues to expand with diverse content.

Other platforms of Chinese origin, like Xiaohongshu – referred to as RedNote among its users in the US – have witnessed swift growth within the US and the UK.

Nevertheless, some argue that no current application can genuinely replicate TikTok, particularly its TikTok Shop feature, which enables users to buy products directly from videos, generating substantial income for creators in the US.

Craig Atkinson, CEO of digital marketing firm Code3, mentioned that there is no direct rival to which users could smoothly migrate – and notes his firm was securing new agreements with clients to develop TikTok Shop campaigns as recently as December.