“Volcanic Fury: How a Thawing Antarctica Could Spark Earth’s Next Catastrophe”

• The West Antarctic Rift System contains over 130 volcanoes, many of which are concealed beneath substantial layers of ice.
• A recent study indicates that glacial retreat combined with isostatic rebound caused by human-induced climate change may significantly affect the volcanism in this area, elevating both eruptive frequency and instability.
• The loss of glacial coverage will notably influence large magma chambers while also initiating the early phases of eruption by decades to centuries.

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If there’s one lesson that can be derived from Earth’s geological past, it’s to never underestimate volcanoes. Of the five significant mass extinctions in the planet’s timeline (excluding the current mass extinction for now), four were primarily caused by volcanic activity—and candidly, the jury’s still out on that fifth one. Therefore, when a new study proposes that climate change might hasten volcanism in Antarctica, it certainly merits thorough scrutiny.

Investigating the relationship between volcanism and glaciation over the last 150,000 years, researchers from the U.S. and Germany concluded that mass unloading from the retreat of glaciers, referred to as isostatic rebound, could heighten the frequency and intensity of volcanic activity in the West Antarctic Rift System (WARS). The findings of the research were published in the journal Geochemistry, Geophysics, Geosystems.

Among the most volcanically dynamic regions globally, WARS hosts more than an estimated 130 volcanoes, many of which line the western coast of the icy continent in the ring of fire. While some of these volcanoes, for instance Mount Erebus, are remarkably visible, a greater number remain concealed beneath a thick layer of ice—a layer that is gradually diminishing and retreating.

“Volcanic activity has been demonstrated to influence Earth’s climate in numerous ways,” the authors note. “One such instance is that eruptions near surface ice will accelerate ice melting. Consequently, the crustal unloading tied to the melting of an ice sheet impacts the internal dynamics of the magma plumbing system beneath.”

According to Phys.org, the researchers examined these “internal dynamics” by constructing a thermomechanical magma chamber model and simulating varying pressure reductions induced by deglaciation. The research also explored how this alteration in pressure enlarged the magma chamber and influenced the release of volatiles (also known as gas bubbles). After executing over 4,000 simulations, they determined that the larger the magma reservoir, the more affected it was by the retreating glaciers above. This mechanism also expedited initial volcanic stages that ultimately result in eruption by decades to centuries.

To validate these discoveries, the team additionally investigated the effects of deglaciation in the Andes Mountains, which transpired approximately 18,000 to 35,000 years ago. Consistent with their findings, they uncovered signs of heightened volcanism during the deglaciation period related to the Last Glacial Maximum.

“As the ice melts away, the decreased pressure on the volcano enables the magma to expand, exerting influence on the surrounding rock that may promote eruptions,” the authors express. “The diminished weight from the melting ice overhead also allows dissolved water and carbon dioxide to form gas bubbles, leading to an accumulation of pressure within the magma chamber that may eventually precipitate an eruption.”

Regrettably, the melting of the Antarctic Ice Sheet shows no indications of deceleration; in fact, due to a mechanism known as the ice-albedo feedback—when a less reflective ice surface reduces solar reflection—the colder regions globally are experiencing warming.up to four times quicker than different regions. While addressing climate change and reducing emissions continues to be the foremost priority, millennia of volcanic activity will distinctly be influenced by the effects of human-induced warming as it has already caused.