Melting Permafrost: A Countdown to Risk for Three Million Arctic Residents

The melting of permafrost introduces multiple threats to the Arctic ecosystem and the livelihoods of its inhabitants. The increasingly thawing permafrost soils not only present a global hazard because of the CO₂ and methane gases contained within, but they also have extensive ramifications for the roughly three million Arctic residents inhabiting these permafrost soils. Grasping these threats is vital for effective policy formulation and adaptation strategies. To pinpoint these risks, the researchers analyzed four Arctic regions from 2017 to 2023 as part of the “Nunataryuk” initiative: Longyearbyen (Svalbard, Norway), the municipality of Avannaata (Greenland), the Beaufort Sea region, the Mackenzie River Delta (Canada), and the Bulunskiy district in the Republic of Sakha (Russia). The team comprised engineers, physicists, as well as environmental, social, and health scientists. “The thorough risk assessment was enabled through extensive collaboration with local stakeholders and permafrost experts, and for the first time, incorporates not only physical processes but also a detailed overview of the societal effects of melting permafrost soils,” highlights anthropologist and co-study leader Susanna Gartler from the University of Vienna.

The team identified five interconnected primary dangers: infrastructure collapse, disruption of movement and supply, deterioration of water quality, obstacles to food security, and increased vulnerability to diseases and pollutants. Infrastructure situated in coastal zones, riverbanks, deltas, and mountainous areas is especially susceptible. As one research participant recounted, “I have a camp by the river. This summer, a significant piece of land next to my cabin disintegrated and fell into the river. It’s frightening.” Some erosion occurs gradually, but in delta regions, significant segments of land can detach virtually overnight. With regard to health and ecosystems, there is apprehension regarding pollutants from old oil and gas sumps being unleashed by thawing soils. Traditionally, the industry neglected to remove waste from the ground, assuming that the soils would remain perpetually frozen – a reality that is currently changing dramatically with escalating global temperatures.

In Canada and other areas where the population heavily relies on hunting and fishing, erosion also impacts food security as access to hunting and fishing cabins becomes increasingly difficult, soils turn to quicksand, and thaw slumps (a form of landslide) must be navigated cautiously. In Longyearbyen on Svalbard, the thawing permafrost also endangers the availability of clean drinking water, since the dam of the primary source, Isdammen, is situated on frozen terrain. This poses a significant risk to the health and welfare of the local community. In the subsequent project ILLUQ, the researchers are examining the complex topics related to permafrost, health, and pollution.