WASDE: Strong Crops, Excessive Enter Prices, Strained Margins | Market Intel

USDA’s August World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE)
report incorporates the primary field-based yield projections for the 2025/26 crop yr. Updated forecasts for row crops modify manufacturing and inventory ranges that can affect costs heading into harvest. Meanwhile, USDA’s latest Farm Production Expenditures
report exhibits near-record prices for farmers, underscoring the problem of sustaining margins in immediately’s unsure market circumstances.

August WASDE Highlights

USDA’s August WASDE units the stage for fall markets by together with precise discipline knowledge.

Corn

Corn yields are projected at 188.8 bushels per acre, up 7.8 bushels (4%) from final month’s estimate. If realized, this might be a report yield coupled with report acreage after a 1.9-million-acre improve in harvested space from final month. This would carry projected 2025/26 manufacturing to 16.7 billion bushels, 1 billion greater than final month’s forecast and 1.4 billion above the earlier report set in 2023/24. USDA raised 2025/26 complete corn use by 545 million bushels from final month, together with a 250-million-bushel improve in feed and residual use, 100 million extra for ethanol and a report 2.9 billion bushels projected for exports.

Even with greater use, provide progress outpaces demand, pushing ending shares as much as 457 million bushels from final month to 2.1 billion bushels, the very best since 2018/19 and about 60% above the 1.34 billion carried into 2024/25. The season-average value is lowered 30 cents from final month to $3.90 per bushel, reflecting the stress of a report crop and expectations for comparatively low world costs. Following the discharge of the report immediately, the December 2025 corn futures contract fell 13 cents to $3.94, which marks the primary shut beneath $4 for any 2025 corn contract apart from September.

Soybeans

Soybean yields are projected at 53.6 bushels per acre, up 1.1 bushels from final month’s estimate, however harvested space is down 2.4 million acres from final month to 80.1 million. This ends in 2025/26 manufacturing of 4.3 billion bushels, down 43 million bushels from the July estimate and 290 million bushels beneath final yr’s 4.36 billion. Beginning shares are lowered by 20 million bushels from final month as a consequence of greater crush volumes and exports in 2024/25.

With decrease provide and sluggish early-season export gross sales, USDA diminished export projections by 40 million bushels to 1.7 billion. Crush stays unchanged at 2.54 billion bushels. Ending shares are projected at 290 million bushels, down 20 million from final month and 40 million beneath the 330 million carried into 2024/25. The season-average value is unchanged from final month at $10.10 per bushel. The November soybean futures contract responded positively, closing up 21 cents at $10.32 following the report.

Wheat

Wheat yields are projected to be 52.7 bushels per acre, up 0.1 bushels from final month’s estimate. Production is forecasted at 1.93 billion bushels, down 2 million from final month due to lowered harvested space. USDA lowered complete home use by 5 million bushels from final month, pushed primarily by diminished meals use, whereas nonetheless elevating exports 25 million bushels to 875 million, reflecting robust early-season gross sales and shipments. Ending shares are projected at 869 million bushels, down 21 million from final month’s estimate however nonetheless above the 851 million carried into 2024/25. The season-average farm value is lowered 10 cents from final month to $5.30 per bushel. Futures responded with all Chicago wheat contracts posting new record-low closing costs.

Other Crops

Outside of corn, soybeans and wheat, USDA’s August outlook exhibits blended outcomes throughout different commodities. Rice manufacturing is forecast at 208.5 million cwt, raised by an expanded harvested space, with elevated home use and exports trimming ending shares to 44.6 million cwt. This elevated the rice farm value to $14.20/cwt.[EA1] Cotton output is projected at 13.2 million bales, down sharply from July and final yr as Southeastern states see decrease output, reducing ending shares to three.6 million bales and lifting the value to 64 cents per pound. Sugar provides are greater from elevated sugar beet manufacturing and bigger starting shares, pushing the stocks-to-use ratio to 17.75%.

Production Expenses and Margins

Margins stay tight as USDA’s August WASDE lowers costs for key crops. USDA’s Prices Received Index for crops in June 2025, which measures the common costs farmers obtain for his or her merchandise, was 9.2% greater than a yr earlier. However, the Prices Paid Index, which measures the common costs farmers pay for items and providers comparable to feed, seed, fertilizer and gasoline, additionally rose 7.1%. Despite the rise in costs acquired, there stays a big hole between what farmers earn and what they pay for inputs. Combined with USDA’s Farm Production Expenditures report displaying $477.5 billion in prices for 2024, elevated inputs and unstable markets are conserving break-even ranges close to or above present costs for a lot of producers. Persistent commerce uncertainty additional clouds the outlook, particularly for soybeans, the place export projections have been diminished.

[EA1]Not certain my edit is kind of proper however one thing was lacking.

USDA’s Farm Production Expenditures 2024 Summary estimates complete U.S. farm manufacturing bills at $477.6 billion, down 0.89% from the report $481.9 billion in 2023. This marks the primary year-over-year decline since 2018, although prices stay close to 2023’s historic highs and are nonetheless greater than 30% greater than simply 5 years in the past. Regionally, the Midwest had the very best farm bills at $149.1 billion (31.2% of the nationwide complete), adopted by the Plains ($111.6 billion, 23.3%), West ($107.5 billion, 22.5%), Atlantic ($58.3 billion,12.2%) and South ($51 billion, 10.7%). California led all states with $48.6 billion in bills, reflecting the excessive prices of specialty crop manufacturing, together with labor-intensive harvests and in depth irrigation infrastructure. Iowa ($35.8 billion), Nebraska ($30.4 billion) and Texas ($26.5 billion) rounded out the highest 4, every influenced by input-intensive crop and livestock sectors.

Conclusion

The August WASDE and USDA’s newest Farm Production Expenditures report paint an image of a blended however difficult outlook for U.S. agriculture. Production forecasts for main crops level to usually ample provides, which is able to proceed to stress costs as inflated enter costs additional tighten margins. On prime of this, world market uncertainty provides to the stress. New investments within the farm security web below the One Big Beautiful Bill Act and up to date catastrophe help present short-term assist, however market challenges will proceed to check the boundaries of farmers’ profitability. Together, these elements will form the monetary outlook for farmers and ranchers as they make choices for the seasons forward.