Scientists Calculate Odds of Metropolis-Killer-Measurement Asteroid Hitting Earth

An asteroid is the most certainly cause the dinosaurs went extinct—however might one thing comparable occur to us?

A brand new examine has in contrast the probability of a devastating asteroid influence to different causes of loss of life, revealing some stunning outcomes about our probabilities of being struck in our lifetime.

The analysis, set to be printed in The Planetary Science Journal, goals to place these cosmic dangers right into a clearer perspective and spotlight the significance of planetary protection initiatives.

The Odds of a Killer Asteroid

In their examine, physicist professor Carrie Nugent of the Olin College of Engineering in Massachusetts and her colleagues simulated the orbits of 5 million near-Earth objects (NEOs) with diameters better than 140 meters. By monitoring potential Earth impacts over 150 years, they have been in a position to calculate the frequency of such occasions.

The authors discovered that the prospect of an asteroid better than 140 meters hitting the Earth is extra seemingly than each the prospect of a person being struck by lightning—or attacked by a coyote.

Analysis additionally revealed that the estimated influence frequency for NEOs bigger than 140 meters is about one each 11,000 years.

According to the researchers, the work gives a framework for policymakers to “prioritize planetary defense and encourage funding for asteroid detection and deflection missions if need be.”

What Would Happen if an Asteroid Hit Earth?

The results of an asteroid influence would range extensively, relying on a number of components, together with its measurement, the place it lands and its velocity.

The researchers mentioned {that a} 140−200 meter NEO touchdown within the ocean might have zero fatalities, whereas a barely bigger one has the prospect of affecting a million individuals if it hits a extremely populated space. Even bigger NEOs would have an effect on the complete world in the event that they hit.

Even if a NEO have been to strike Earth, the researchers famous, “there is still a good chance that most people would survive if it were on the smaller end.”

The Case for Planetary Defense

The examine isn’t meant to gas fears however to supply a transparent argument for planetary protection by placing the dangers of asteroid impacts into context.

The researchers pointed to NASA’s Double Asteroid Redirection Test (DART) Mission, which proved that people can design spacecraft able to deflecting asteroids.

A current report from the National Academies explored planetary protection, the researchers famous, including: “The committee considers work on this problem as insurance, with the premiums devoted wholly toward preventing the tragedy.”

This perspective finally frames the hassle not as merely a response to an imminent menace—however as a necessary safeguard for the way forward for the planet.

Do you’ve gotten a tip on a science story that Newsweek ought to be masking? Do you’ve gotten a query about asteroids? Let us know by way of science@newsweek.com.

Reference

Nugent, C. R., Andersen, Ok. P., Bauer, J. M., Jensen, C. T., Kristiansen, L. Ok., Hansen, C. P., Nielsen, M. M., & Vestergård, C. F. (2025). Placing the Near-Earth Object Impact Probability in Context. The Planetary Science Journal, 6(8), 190.