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A modelling examine revealed in Geophysical Research Letters appears to be like at Arctic sea ice loss within the final 20 years.
Dr Michel Tsamados, Lecturer, Centre for Polar Observation and Modelling, University College London (UCL),
“By contrasting mannequin outcomes and satellite tv for pc observations over the 2005-2024 interval this examine paperwork clearly a ‘slowdown’ or ‘pause’ in Arctic sea ice extent (the realm the place sea ice fraction is above 15%).
“Similar pauses or hiatuses are pure within the local weather system and had been extensively scrutinised previously within the context of worldwide local weather warming (see 1998-2013 interval).
“In the case of sea ice decline that is made all of the extra shocking as a result of the Arctic is warming as much as 4 occasions quicker than the remainder of the planet and one would anticipate a continued sea ice decline.
“I believe the examine is sweet and sound however would possibly disguise some extra nuanced facets of sea ice decline. I’ve at all times discovered the metric ‘sea ice extent’ fairly simplistic in that it encompasses a fancy 3D area right into a 2D projection. Other metrics, reminiscent of sea ice age for instance, paint an much more alarming image. The authors briefly deal with this by a mannequin outcomes on sea ice thickness however don’t dive deeper into how their outcomes maintain when trying on the whole sea ice quantity. Satellite information on sea ice thickness exist and can be price trying into [1].
“Another facet of the examine that’s missing some dialogue and can be very attention-grabbing to research extra is the so known as ‘model response uncertainty’. In different phrases how a lot of the mannequin traits are because of deficiencies and biases within the fashions. From my expertise [2] sea ice is just too thick in local weather fashions and there are additionally points with the suggestions processes in each summer season and winter within the fashions.
“To sum up, I wouldn’t call this a good news story as the recent slowdown of sea ice extent is only one part of a complex Arctic landscape (i.e. ice volume, ecology, temperature). I also don’t think that we can draw any confident projections from the finding of this study that the current slowdown will persist in the coming years.”
Dr Gaëlle Veyssière, Sea ice and Snow Physicist, British Antarctic Survey, mentioned:
What ought to readers take from this new analysis?
“This study shows that, over the past 20 years, the observed amount of Arctic sea ice loss has been smaller than in the decades before (up until 1979; when satellite imagery made this type of observations possible), and this slowdown is noticeable in all seasons. Climate models are also involved in the analysis, and they show that such pauses can happen naturally, even while the global temperature continues to increase due to human activities. The authors find that natural climate variability have likely masked much of the human-driven ice loss during this period, but this does not mean global warming has stopped or that Arctic sea ice is “safe” now. Once the pure variability shifts, the ice is predicted to maintain shrinking, and probably at a quicker charge than earlier than.
Are there any essential caveats to concentrate on?
“There are a number of essential factors to remember right here:
“It’s a ‘pause’ within the charge of lack of sea ice. Arctic sea ice remains to be far decrease than it was within the Eighties and the decline has total slowed down for the examine interval 2005-2024.
“Natural local weather variability is more likely to be the driving issue. Some human-related influences might need performed a task too, however that half is unsure.
“The local weather modelling evaluation means that this slowdown may proceed for a number of extra years. However, it would stay momentary and as soon as the pure variability shifts, the ocean ice is more likely to hold lowering, probably quicker than earlier than.
“This pause should not be confused with a sign of recovery. It doesn’t indicate that Arctic sea ice is improving or that we are seeing reversing climate trends. As the authors indicated, without human-caused warming, sea ice would likely have increased over this period.”
Could the slower charge of sea ice loss be seen as excellent news, within the sense that it provides some extra time for local weather motion to ramp up?
“This slowdown is very likely temporary and caused mostly by natural variability, not by a significant change in the underlying human-driven global warming. We might have a little more time before we reach critical milestones like the first ice-free Arctic summer, however, once that variability swings the other way, ice loss could accelerate, meaning we could lose any apparent “extra time” shortly. It’s extra like a short intermission in a storm, not the storm passing.”
Dr Ed Blockley, Leader of Polar Climate Group, Met workplace Hadley Centre, mentioned:
“It is well-known that multi-decadal variability can exert appreciable affect on the evolution of Arctic sea ice. Although we now have very excessive confidence that anthropogenic warming is accountable for almost all of Arctic sea ice decline noticed within the satellite tv for pc report, we all know that long-term variability patterns can play a task in modulating that decline.
This paper properly highlights the essential position that multi-decadal variability performs within the evolution of Arctic sea ice, that such slow-down occasions should not surprising, and that, collectively, the local weather fashions are capable of signify this essential behaviour.
“The affect of such lengthy timescale variability on the system poses a substantial problem for the projection of Arctic sea ice sooner or later. For this purpose we’re solely capable of make projections with round 10-20 years uncertainty of the date during which the Arctic Ocean will first be ice-free.
“Understanding long-term variability patterns such as this, their underlying driving mechanisms, and the models’ ability to represent them, is therefore very important to improve both our understanding of past changes in Arctic sea ice, and our confidence in future projections.”
Prof Julienne Stroeve, Professor of Polar Observation & Modelling, University College London (UCL), mentioned:
“I would say two things, one it is not surprising that the September minimum extent hasn’t changed much the last decade as we know pauses in climate records, be in global temperatures or sea ice can remain the same for several years in a row as a result of internal climate variability. This has been reported in previous studies and thus I do not find the new study particularly novel. Second, there is a negative feedback whereby at the end of summer when temperatures drop again new ice forms and this ice grows thermodynamically to about 1.5 to 2m over winter. This ice growth helps to offset continued summer ice loss. So until we start to impact the amount of ice that can grow over a winter season by (1) shortening the ice-growth season and (2) reduced freezing degree days, then this negative feedback will help to provide a buffer to summer ice loss. I was a co-author on the Notz and Stroeve (2016) paper where we related the loss of September sea ice to cumulative CO2. If I update that plot through 2024 it looks like the one below. The relationship is still linear but it’s not as strong as we previously reported.”
Prof Andrew Shepherd, Director of the Centre for Polar Observation and Modelling, Northumbria University, mentioned:
What ought to readers take from this new analysis?
“The supposed message from this analysis is that the latest variability in arctic sea ice extent isn’t proof that the historic development has stopped, as a result of the previous local weather simulations recommend that 20-30 yr pauses are comparatively frequent. There is a couple of 20% probability that such a state of affairs is pure. I believe most will view this to be a slim probability, and so the primary message will possible not land in the best way the authors had supposed.
Are there any essential caveats to concentrate on?
“Yes. The authors are in my opinion not contemplating two essential points.
“First, there are two excessive melting years within the report they use – 2008 and 2011 (see Figure 1). In addition to long run traits, a recognized function of local weather change is the elevated propensity for excessive occasions. Historical simulations are unlikely to seize these, and so a comparability of the latest development to these simulations isn’t ultimate. An various statistical evaluation might be to evaluate the impression of these excessive occasions; if they’re excluded from the report then the latest development is nearly actually detrimental and important. My concern is subsequently that the 20% probability is nearly actually an underestimate.
“Second, the paper is only considering trends in extent. The amount of sea ice is also dependent upon its thickness, and that is an important consideration for two reasons. First, as the ice pack retreats the first ice to be lost is at the margins and this is the thinnest, and it is expected that the pace of retreat will slow down over time. So this is not an indication that the forcing (climate warming) has changed; rather it is consistent with it. Second, we know that the Arctic sea ice pack is thinning also, and so even if the extent were not reducing the volume still is. Our data show that since 2010 the average October thickness has fallen by 0.6 centimetres per year.”
Could the slower charge of sea ice loss be seen as excellent news, within the sense that it provides some extra time for local weather motion to ramp up?
“No, for the second reason above”
‘Minimal Arctic sea ice loss in the last 20 years, consistent with internal climate variability’ by England et al. was revealed in Geophysical Research Letters on 5th August 2025.
Declared pursuits
For all consultants, no reply to our request for DOIs was acquired.
This web page was created programmatically, to learn the article in its unique location you may go to the hyperlink bellow:
https://www.sciencemediacentre.org/expert-reaction-to-modelling-study-looking-at-the-rate-of-arctic-sea-ice-melt-over-the-last-20-years/
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This web page was created programmatically, to learn the article in its authentic location you…
This web page was created programmatically, to learn the article in its unique location you…
This web page was created programmatically, to learn the article in its unique location you…
This web page was created programmatically, to learn the article in its authentic location you…
This web page was created programmatically, to learn the article in its unique location you…
This web page was created programmatically, to learn the article in its authentic location you'll…