Healing Ozone Layer Might Set off 40% Extra International Warming

As the ozone layer recovers, it’s additionally intensifying international warming. Researchers predict that by 2050, ozone will rank simply behind carbon dioxide as a driver of heating, offsetting lots of the advantages from banning CFCs.

The planet is now anticipated to warmth up greater than scientists as soon as predicted, and a significant cause lies sooner or later conduct of ozone. This fuel shields life on Earth from harmful ultraviolet radiation, but it additionally acts as a greenhouse fuel by trapping warmth within the ambiance.

The ban on ozone-depleting chemical substances corresponding to CFCs has allowed the protecting layer to steadily recuperate. But researchers warn that when this rebound is mixed with rising ranges of air air pollution, ozone might drive 40% extra warming than earlier estimates urged.

Measuring Ozone’s Warming Impact

Research led by the University of Reading reveals that between 2015 and 2050, ozone might be accountable for a further 0.27 watts per sq. meter (Wm⁻²) of trapped vitality. This measurement refers back to the quantity of additional warmth retained per sq. meter of the Earth’s floor. By mid-century, this could make ozone the second most vital reason behind warming, behind solely carbon dioxide (1.75 W m⁻² of additional warming).

Professor Bill Collins, who led the research, defined: “Countries are doing the proper factor by persevering with to ban chemical substances known as CFCs and HCFCs that harm the ozone layer above Earth. However, whereas this helps restore the protecting ozone layer, we now have discovered that this restoration in ozone will heat the planet greater than we initially thought.

“Air pollution from vehicles, factories, and power plants also creates ozone near the ground, causing health problems and warming the planet.”

Simulating the Atmosphere’s Future

The analysis, revealed on August 21 in Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, used laptop fashions to simulate how the ambiance will change by the center of the century. The fashions adopted a situation with low implementation of air air pollution controls, however with CFCs and HCFCs being phased out as mandated by the Montreal Protocol (1987).

The findings present that stopping CFC and HCFC manufacturing – performed primarily to guard the ozone layer – gives much less local weather profit than beforehand calculated. CFCs and HCFCs are greenhouse gases that heat the planet. Countries banned them to avoid wasting the ozone layer, anticipating this could additionally assist combat local weather change. But because the ozone layer heals, it creates extra warming that cancels out many of the local weather advantages from eradicating CFCs and HCFCs.

Unavoidable Warming Ahead

Countries that scale back air air pollution will restrict some ozone formation close to the bottom. However, the ozone layer will proceed repairing itself for many years no matter air high quality insurance policies, creating unavoidable warming.

Protecting the ozone layer stays essential for human well being and stopping pores and skin most cancers. The ozone layer shields Earth from harmful ultraviolet radiation that may hurt folks, animals and vegetation. However, the analysis suggests local weather insurance policies want updating to account for ozone’s bigger warming impact.

Reference: “Climate forcing due to future ozone changes: an intercomparison of metrics and methods” by William J. Collins, Fiona M. O’Connor, Rachael E. Byrom, Øivind Hodnebrog, Patrick Jöckel, Mariano Mertens, Gunnar Myhre, Matthias Nützel, Dirk Olivié, Ragnhild Bieltvedt Skeie, Laura Stecher, Larry W. Horowitz, Vaishali Naik, Gregory Faluvegi, Ulas Im, Lee T. Murray, Drew Shindell, Kostas Tsigaridis, Nathan Luke Abraham and James Keeble, 21 August 2025, Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics.
DOI: 10.5194/acp-25-9031-2025

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