Wall Street analysts recap July gaming, visitation in Las Vegas — CDC Gaming

A Wall Street analyst was shocked on the robust displaying of Las Vegas Strip gaming income in July, on condition that the town reported its worst visitation for the month since 2002. Another famous that “Vegas softness” continued in August, with occupancy and room charges in decline 12 months over 12 months.

According to Daniel Politzer of J.P. Morgan, the 5.6% income enhance over July 2024 was resulting from larger baccarat maintain this 12 months. When eradicating baccarat from the equation, Strip income fell 1.7%.

“This 1.7% year over year is likely better than expected, especially given visitation trends,” Politzer stated. “July slot handle was surprisingly strong at +5% year over year, while table drop was -4.1% year over year and down 0.9% year over year excluding baccarat.”

Slot income was 2% larger, whereas desk income was 10.5% larger than July 2024. Excluding baccarat, desk income fell 8.9%, which Politzer known as a “major swing.”

Politzer attributed locals on line casino income falling 1.5%, with slot deal with up 5%, to a two-day unfavorable calendar versus 2024.

As for visitation, Politzer stated that the three.1 million vacationers fell 12%, regardless of conference attendance up 10.7%.
“It’s the lowest level of July visitation since 2002 (excluding 2020), marking the seventh consecutive year- over-year visitation decline,” Politzer stated. “Year to date, visitation is now tracking down 8%, with recent months broadly negative (June -11.3%, May -6.5%, April -5.1%, March -7.8%, February -11.9% on the Superbowl comparison, and January -1.1%).”

Barry Jonas, an analyst with Truist Securities, stated given the newest numbers from Las Vegas and its room survey, investor expectations for the third quarter outcomes are “modest,” whereas the larger query is whether or not an “inflection” hits the fourth quarter.

Jonas highlighted July room charges falling 3%, with income per room down 12%. Weekend occupancy was down 4%, midweek 9%. Available room stock fell 2% with whole occupied room nights down 11%.

Revenue per room, common every day charges trended down 8% and 5%, respectively, in August as “Vegas softness” continues into the third quarter. Occupancy is monitoring down 4% in August, he stated.