Fantasy playbook: NFL Week 1 scores, projections, matchups

Welcome to the Fantasy Football Playbook for Week 1, which kicks off Thursday with the Cowboys on the Eagles.

This column options rating projections, over/unders, win chances, and, in fact, simply digestible fantasy recommendation for seasonlong leagues and DFS. This information ought to aid you with all kinds of decision-making, together with sit/begin choices, last-minute waiver provides and lineup selections.

Additionally, we’ve folded the Shadow Report, beforehand a separate column, into the game-by-game breakdowns under. Using our play-by-play knowledge, we’re in a position to determine defensive schemes and the place every large receiver and cornerback strains up on every play. By monitoring these WR/CB matchups, together with potential shadow conditions, we will supply one of the best projections, rankings, sit/begin recommendation and waiver wire solutions every week.

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All of this recommendation is centered on 12-team PPR leagues with comparatively normal scoring and lineup settings (1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 flex, 1 Okay, 1 D/ST), though I’ll usually point out “shallow” or “deep” leagues for some starters. The charts present all gamers who’ve been projected for no less than 6.0 fantasy factors this week, in addition to all D/STs. “Matchup” is routinely decided utilizing a proprietary metric that elements in uncooked and volume-adjusted fantasy factors allowed to every place by the opposing protection this season.

(Editor’s be aware: Projections and rankings will align nearly completely, however typically when a projection is shut, a participant could be ranked barely increased or decrease due to different elements, together with upside or danger. This column is topic to updates throughout the weekend, though on the very minimal, rankings will likely be up to date on the positioning and projections will all the time be up to date inside the sport main as much as kickoff.)

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DAL-PHI | KC-LAC | TB-ATL | CIN-CLE | MIA-IND | CAR-JAX | LV-NE | ARI-NO
PIT-NYJ | NYG-WAS | TEN-DEN | SF-SEA | DET-GB | HOU-LAR | BAL-BUF | MIN-CHI

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Projected rating: Eagles 30, Cowboys 22

Lineup locks: Jalen Hurts, Saquon Barkley, CeeDee Lamb, A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith, George Pickens

Fantasy scoop: The Dallas backfield is one the largest head-scratchers in fantasy. Javonte Williams is totally anticipated to function because the lead again within the opener, however he has struggled with effectivity in latest seasons and has but to ship a top-25 fantasy marketing campaign on a per-game foundation. Miles Sanders and rookie Jaydon Blue additionally determine to see some run and both might rapidly emerge because the “hot hand.” Especially in what tasks as a troublesome matchup towards an Eagles protection that allowed the second-lowest EPA towards the run final season, this can be a scenario greatest prevented.

Shadow Report: Dallas will likely be with out 4 depth corners this week and, extra importantly, may very well be lacking Trevon Diggs (knee). If Diggs is out, it is doable Dallas chooses to shadow Brown with DaRon Bland, but it surely possible will not be full time, as Bland could be wanted within the slot. Regardless, the likes of Brown and DeVonta Smith can be working loads towards Kaiir Elam, seventh-round rookie Trikweze Bridges and 2024 UDFA Reddy Steward (zero profession snaps). Upgrade the Philly move assault.

Over/beneath: 52 (2nd highest)
Win chance: Eagles 74% (2nd highest)

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Projected rating: Chiefs 26, Chargers 23

Lineup locks: Patrick Mahomes, Omarion Hampton, Xavier Worthy, Ladd McConkey, Travis Kelce

Fantasy scoop: With Rashee Rice suspended for the Chiefs’ first six video games, Worthy is on the WR1 radar and Hollywood Brown makes for a high quality flex choice. In an identical function late final season, Worthy dealt with a hefty 26% goal share (8.7 per sport) over his last six video games (together with the playoffs) and scored no less than 19 fantasy factors in 5 of these video games. Brown misplaced most of 2024 attributable to harm, however was a top-30 fantasy receiver throughout the 2021-22 seasons and has a path to an every-down function this week.

Over/beneath: 49.9 (third highest)
Win chance: Chiefs 60% (eighth highest)

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Projected rating: Buccaneers 27, Falcons 23

Lineup locks: Baker Mayfield, Bijan Robinson, Bucky Irving, Drake London, Mike Evans, Emeka Egbuka

Shadow Report: Expect A.J. Terrell Jr. to shadow Evans in Week 1. Atlanta’s prime nook shadowed most weeks final season, together with a Week 5 showdown with Evans. Evans posted a powerful 5-62-2 receiving line on seven targets within the sport. Evans was out for the Week 8 assembly between the groups, however Terrell additionally shadowed him in Week 5 again in 2022 (the place Evans posted an 8-4-81-0 receiving line), in addition to in Week 7 (8-6-82-1) and Week 14 (1-1-5-0) of 2023.

Some fast math exhibits that Evans has produced 14.3 fantasy PPG within the 4 conferences with Terrell, having reached 20 factors twice. With Chris Godwin Jr. and Jalen McMillan each out, Evans will likely be Mayfield’s prime goal and Terrell hasn’t been a lot of a detriment to his success. Evans must be locked in as a fringe WR1 and rookie operating mate Egbuka must also be in lineups.

Over/beneath: 49.5 (4th highest)
Win chance: Buccaneers 64% (seventh highest)

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Projected rating: Bengals 27, Browns 20

Lineup locks: Joe Burrow, Chase Brown, Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, Jerry Jeudy, David Njoku

Fantasy scoop: Second-round rookie Quinshon Judkins has but to signal with the Browns, which positions Jerome Ford and fourth-round rookie Dylan Sampson as Cleveland’s Week 1 lead backs. Ford performed six full video games because the crew’s lead again final season and was productive, averaging 14.0 touches, 78.0 yards and 14.0 fantasy factors. He was additionally the crew’s lead again for many of 2023 and completed sixteenth in RB fantasy factors (twenty fifth in PPG) whereas piling up 1,132 yards and 9 TDs. It’s but to be seen how a lot Sampson will contribute, however Ford is protected to view as a RB2/flex choice this week towards a suspect Bengals protection.

Over/beneath: 47 (sixth highest)
Win chance: Bengals 73% (third highest)

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Projected rating: Colts 23, Dolphins 22

Lineup locks: Jonathan Taylor, De’Von Achane, Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle

Shadow Report: Free company and accidents have devastated Miami’s cornerbacks room, leaving the likes of Storm Duck, lately signed Rasul Douglas and Day 3 rookie Jason Marshall Jr. because the possible Week 1 starters. This opens the door for Colts receivers to get off to a quick begin with Daniel Jones beneath middle. Upgrade the likes of Michael Pittman Jr. and Josh Downs. Rookie tight finish Tyler Warren additionally makes for a high quality beginning choice in his NFL debut.

Over/beneath: 44.8 (ninth highest)
Win chance: Colts 55% (14th highest)

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Projected rating: Patriots 25, Raiders 19

Lineup locks: Ashton Jeanty, TreVeyon Henderson, Jakobi Meyers, Brock Bowers

Shadow Report: Stefon Diggs is a bit dangerous as he makes his New England debut whereas getting back from final season’s torn ACL. The excellent news is that he has an interesting Week 1 matchup at dwelling towards a suspect Raiders cornerbacks room. Ex-Packer Eric Stokes will likely be joined on the perimeter by third-round rookie Darien Porter and slot man Darnay Holmes. Diggs and fellow beginning WRs DeMario Douglas and Kayshon Boutte may be upgraded.

Over/beneath: 44.2 (eleventh highest)
Win chance: Patriots 69% (4th highest)

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Projected rating: Cardinals 24, Saints 19

Lineup locks: Kyler Murray, James Conner, Alvin Kamara, Marvin Harrison Jr., Trey McBride

Fantasy scoop: Week 1 will give us our first have a look at Spencer Rattler in Kellen Moore’s offense. Rattler — a 2024 fifth-round decide — appeared in seven video games as a rookie and didn’t present significantly nicely. He accomplished 57% of his passes, averaged 5.8 yards per try and managed 4 TDs and 5 INTs. Especially towards an improved Arizona protection, Rattler’s presence makes the Saints’ move catchers very dangerous fantasy performs. Chris Olave (a 4-54-0 receiving line on 5 profession targets from Rattler) and Rashid Shaheed (1-11-0 on seven targets) aren’t any higher than flex choices in deeper leagues.

Over/beneath: 42.1 (fifteenth highest)
Win chance: Cardinals 68% (sixth highest)

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Projected rating: Steelers 20, Jets 18

Lineup locks: Breece Hall, DK Metcalf, Garrett Wilson

Fantasy scoop: The lowest projected sport whole of the week options two good (maybe nice) defenses and never many palatable fantasy starters. That contains the operating backs on each groups. You’d be exhausting pressed to bench Hall after choosing him within the fourth-ish spherical (which is why he is listed as a lineup lock regardless of the robust matchup), however a Week 1 dud should not be a shock — particularly with Braelon Allen anticipated to be concerned. Jaylen Warren will work because the lead again in Pittsburgh, however he is by no means beforehand operated as a function again and figures to defer some work to Kenneth Gainwell and rookie Kaleb Johnson. Warren is greatest valued as a flex.

Over/beneath: 38 (Lowest)
Win chance: Steelers 60% (tenth highest)

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Projected rating: Commanders 26, Giants 20

Lineup locks: Jayden Daniels, Malik Nabers, Terry McLaurin

Fantasy scoop: If you drafted nicely, you should not have to depend on any of the operating backs on this sport … and that is an excellent factor. Tracy is one of the best and most secure choice of the bunch, however he did not sport a lot upside final season and it is but to be seen how a lot work he’ll defer to fourth-round rookie Cam Skattebo. Washington traded away Brian Robinson Jr. final month and we may very well be taking a look at a three-headed committee with Austin Ekeler, Jacory Croskey-Merritt and Chris Rodriguez Jr. Ekeler’s receiving chops make him the most secure choice of the three, whereas Croskey-Merritt is most the explosive and Rodriguez one of the best wager to steal a landing.

Shadow Report: Marshon Lattimore would possibly journey with Nabers within the opener. The two did not meet final season, however Lattimore has a historical past of shadowing prime receivers and did so towards each A.J. Brown and Mike Evans after becoming a member of Washington late final season. Despite Lattimore’s spectacular profession résumé, he hasn’t been fairly as efficient (or persistently wholesome) lately and his presence is not sufficient to have an effect on Nabers’ fantasy enchantment.

Over/beneath: 46.2 (seventh highest)
Win chance: Commanders 68% (fifth highest)

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Projected rating: Jaguars 24, Panthers 21

Lineup locks: Chuba Hubbard, Brian Thomas Jr., Tetairoa McMillan, Travis Hunter

Fantasy scoop: Choosing between the Jaguars’ operating backs to your Week 1 RB2/flex slot? Good luck. The Jacksonville backfield is likely one of the most unsure conditions within the sport, with veterans Travis Etienne Jr. and Tank Bigsby battling with rookies Bhayshul Tuten and LeQuint Allen Jr. for work. The almost certainly Week 1 state of affairs is that Bigsby will tempo the unit in carries and aim line work, with Etienne a hair behind in carries and essentially the most concerned again in passing conditions. Tuten won’t see a lot work in his professional debut, but it surely won’t take him lengthy to emerge if both or each of the veterans wrestle. This is an interesting matchup, so for those who’re actually digging deep, Etienne can be the best choice from this quartet.

Over/beneath: 45 (eighth highest)
Win chance: Jaguars 60% (ninth highest)

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Projected rating: Broncos 25, Titans 18

Lineup locks: Bo Nix, Tony Pollard, Courtland Sutton, Calvin Ridley, Evan Engram

Shadow Report: A sluggish begin to the season may very well be to ensure that each No. 1 receivers, as shadow protection from L’Jarius Sneed (on Sutton) and Pat Surtain II (on Ridley) is possible. Sneed missed most of 2024 attributable to harm, however he shadowed usually previous to getting damage, together with matchups with Garrett Wilson and Tyreek Hill. Sneed was elite as a full-time shadow nook with the Chiefs in 2023 (together with holding Sutton to a single catch on 18 routes in two conferences). Perhaps the league’s prime nook, Surtain shadowed in eight video games final season and held six of these opposing receivers to single-digit fantasy factors. Both Sutton and Ridley can stay in lineups, however there’s added “bust risk” on this matchup.

Over/beneath: 43 (14th highest)
Win chance: Broncos 75% (Highest)

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Projected rating: Seahawks 23, 49ers 22

Lineup locks: Christian McCaffrey, Kenneth Walker III, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, George Kittle

Fantasy scoop: The 49ers’ WR room is in a state of chaos, with Brandon Aiyuk (PUP), Demarcus Robinson (suspension) and Jacob Cowing (IR) all out, and Jauan Jennings and Jordan Watkins each unsure for the opener. Assuming Jennings is ready to play, he and Ricky Pearsall must be closely utilized, and each make for viable WR3/flex choices. Jennings carries some danger after lacking substantial offseason work, however final season’s 25% goal share suggests he’ll stay a giant a part of the offense. Pearsall got here on sturdy on the finish of 2024 and has operated because the 49ers’ No. 1 receiver all through the offseason. The 2024 first-round decide is well-positioned for a breakout marketing campaign.

Over/beneath: 44.8 (tenth highest)
Win chance: Seahawks 56% (thirteenth highest)

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Projected rating: Lions 26, Packers 23

Lineup locks: Jahmyr Gibbs, Josh Jacobs, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jameson Williams, Sam LaPorta

Fantasy scoop: With Christian Watson (PUP) sidelined and Jayden Reed, Dontayvion Wicks and Savion Williams all battling accidents of their very own, the Packers’ WR room is a little bit of a thriller right here in Week 1. One factor we must always have the ability to depend on, nonetheless, is a giant function for rookie Matthew Golden. The speedy first-round decide is predicted to right away slide in as Jordan Love’s prime perimeter goal, with Romeo Doubs on the alternative boundary and, if wholesome, Reed within the slot. Facing off with Terrion Arnold and D.J. Reed will not be a straightforward activity, however Green Bay figures to be throwing the ball loads in what must be a aggressive sport towards Detroit. Golden is your greatest fantasy choice from this Green Bay WR room and may be valued as a WR3/flex.

Over/beneath: 49 (fifth highest)
Win chance: Lions 59% (eleventh highest)

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Projected rating: Rams 23, Texans 21

Lineup locks: Kyren Williams, Nico Collins, Puka Nacua, Davante Adams

Fantasy scoop: Joe Mixon (PUP, foot) is out for no less than the primary 4 video games of the season, which opens the door for some mixture of Nick Chubb, Dameon Pierce, Dare Ogunbowale and rookie Woody Marks to deal with Houston’s backfield workload. Chubb is the most secure wager to deal with the majority of the carries towards the Rams, however will not get a lot work as a receiver. It’s unclear if the 29-year-old may be efficient after struggling on 107 touches in Cleveland final season. You can possible do higher in your flex slot. Pierce and pass-catching specialist Marks are intriguing wild playing cards and, whereas neither must be in fantasy lineups this week, they make for discover end-of-bench stashes.

Over/beneath: 44 (thirteenth highest)
Win chance: Rams 58% (twelfth highest)

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Projected rating: Ravens 28, Bills 27

Lineup locks: Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen, Derrick Henry, James Cook, Zay Flowers, Mark Andrews

Fantasy scoop: This sport is pretty simple from a fantasy standpoint, leaving Buffalo’s large receivers as the one conundrum when evaluating your WR3/flex choices. Khalil Shakir is the most secure of the bunch, however he lacks upside, primarily attributable to a really restricted function close to the aim line (solely seven profession TDs and 5 profession finish zone targets). Coleman had an uneven rookie season, however the 2024 second-round decide is a breakout candidate and will rapidly emerge as Allen’s prime goal. Both receivers are within the flex dialogue, however could have their palms full towards a terrific Baltimore protection that features cornerbacks Nate Wiggins, Marlon Humphrey and, if he is in a position to play, Jaire Alexander.

Over/beneath: 54.5 (Highest)
Win chance: Ravens 53% (fifteenth highest)

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Projected rating: Bears 22, Vikings 22

Lineup locks: D’Andre Swift, Aaron Jones Sr., Justin Jefferson, DJ Moore, T.J. Hockenson

Shadow Report: Jaylon Johnson is a powerful wager to shadow Jefferson this week. When these groups met in Week 12 final season, Johnson shadowed Jefferson on 19 of his 37 routes, together with 17 of 23 on the perimeter and two of 14 within the slot. Jefferson was held in verify, posting a 2-27-0 receiving line on 5 targets. Johnson shadowed solely a part of the time within the Week 15 showdown and Jefferson was higher (7-73-1 on 13 targets), although most of that sport was spent away from Johnson’s protection. Johnson is an efficient nook, so maybe the “bust” potential is increased than regular for Jefferson, however you are clearly beginning one of the best participant in your fantasy crew.

Fantasy scoop: Speaking of Minnesota receivers, Jordan Addison is suspended for 3 video games to open the 2025 season, which positions veteran Adam Thielen for a large function in his return to the crew. Jalen Nailor and rookie Tai Felton very nicely might think about, however Thielen confirmed he nonetheless had life late final season when he averaged 7.7 targets per sport whereas posting 15-plus fantasy factors in 4 of his last six outings with Carolina. We do not wish to get too carried away right here, as Thielen will likely be no increased than third in line for targets (behind Jefferson and Hockenson) and is dealing with an excellent Chicago protection. Still, for those who’re eyeing a WR3/flex lottery ticket, Thielen is a viable choice.

Over/beneath: 44.1 (twelfth highest)
Win chance: Bears 51% (Lowest)