Australia and New Zealand’s (ANZ) journey trade has surpassed pre-pandemic income ranges, however the image behind the numbers tells a extra difficult story. New analysis from Phocuswright’s Australia-New Zealand Travel Market Brief 2025 exhibits that whereas gross income rose to $37.8 billion in 2024, the expansion is being pushed largely by larger costs moderately than will increase in customer volumes.
Inflation, not inflow
Domestic journey is already saturated, and inbound flight capability stays constrained. That means restricted room for natural growth, at the same time as airways, accommodations and automobile rental companies report larger takings. Industry watchers warn that the sector’s reliance on inflationary positive factors leaves it uncovered if shopper spending softens.
Governments in each Australia and New Zealand are leaning into a method of attracting higher-spending guests, a transfer designed to bolster sustainability however one which places added stress on suppliers to ship premium worth.
Online channels hit a ceiling
Digital adoption within the ANZ journey market is near maturity, with on-line penetration hitting 59% in 2024 and forecast to achieve simply 61% by 2028. While on-line journey companies (OTAs) proceed to develop, their growth is being outpaced by supplier-direct channels.
Major gamers—from the duopoly of Qantas and Virgin in Australia to Air New Zealand and hospitality large Accor—are utilizing their sources and attain to maintain extra bookings in-house. Traditional retail and company companies, in the meantime, proceed to carry sway for advanced and high-value worldwide journeys, additional slowing the momentum of intermediaries.
Airlines poised for lift-off
Performance throughout journey segments stays uneven. Airlines, regardless of setbacks together with the collapse of Rex and Bonza in 2024, are anticipated to energy progress from 2025 onward. Partnerships, equivalent to Qatar Airways’ funding in Virgin Australia, mixed with larger fares and fuller planes, are forecast to drive double-digit income positive factors.
Hotels, against this, face a harder setting. Domestic vacationers are shifting their spend overseas, and occupancy charges hover within the low 70% vary. While the sector holds appreciable stock, elevated competitors is restraining progress. Car rental, nonetheless recovering to pre-COVID ranges, is benefiting from the regular return of inbound vacationers and the area’s dependence on self-drive mobility.
What it means
The ANZ journey market is rising however not in ways in which recommend a right away growth. Price will increase, moderately than customer numbers, are propping up income. Distribution is tilting towards supplier-direct, limiting positive factors for OTAs. And whereas airways seem set to steer the following progress cycle, accommodations and automobile rental firms face a more difficult path.
For journey firms, the sign is evident: Success will hinge much less on chasing quantity and extra on competing for high-value clients, strengthening direct relationships and aligning methods with the strongest-performing sectors.
Phocuswright’s Australia-New Zealand Travel Market Brief 2025
To dig deeper into these findings—together with market sizing, projections via 2028 and segment-by-segment efficiency throughout airways, accommodations, automobile rental and extra—contemplate subscribing to Phocuswright Open Access.