WNBA playoffs first-round openers: Sunday highlights, evaluation

The WNBA playoffs are lastly right here. The best-of-three first spherical opens Sunday with 4 video games.

The prime 4 seeds have home-court benefit, however the street groups want to steal a Game 1 win. The Golden State Valkyries made historical past as the primary enlargement group to succeed in the playoffs in its inaugural season. The Indiana Fever, who have not had Caitlin Clark on the courtroom since July 15, have overcome 5 season-ending accidents. The defending champion New York Liberty had been additionally hit laborious by accidents. And the Seattle Storm reached the postseason regardless of a second-half hunch.

How will all of it play out? What first-round video games are we most wanting ahead to, which gamers may step up, and which matchups may have probably the most influence? ESPN breaks down what to anticipate — and will likely be offering postgame evaluation proper right here all through Sunday.

MORE: Playoff predictions | Strengths, flaws for each group | Top 25 gamers | Schedule

Sunday schedule

1 p.m. ET (ABC): No. 8 seed Golden State Valkyries at No. 1 seed Minnesota Lynx

3 p.m. ET (ESPN): No. 6 seed Indiana Fever at No. 3 seed Atlanta Dream

5 p.m. ET (ESPN): No. 5 seed New York Liberty at No. 4 seed Phoenix Mercury

10 p.m. ET (ESPN): No. 7 seed Seattle Storm at No. 2 seed Las Vegas Aces

---

What particular person matchup are you most wanting ahead to seeing Sunday?

Kevin Pelton: New York’s Breanna Stewart vs. Phoenix’s Alyssa Thomas. This matchup itself is nothing new — Stewart’s Liberty beat Thomas’ Connecticut Sun within the 2023 semifinals — however the Mercury’s spacing presents a special problem for New York in slowing down Thomas.

Kendra Andrews: I’m wanting on the identical recreation as Pelton, however a special matchup: Thomas vs. New York’s Jonquel Jones. Both have dimension, however one performs with a bit extra finesse and the opposite with numerous energy and power down low. I feel how New York coach Sandy Brondello and Phoenix’s Nate Tibbetts deploy these gamers — and the way they carry out — will dictate the video games.

Alexa Philippou: There are just a few large ones in Dream-Fever. In the battle of the backcourt, Kelsey Mitchell having a historic season for Indiana, whereas Atlanta’s Allisha Gray has had an All-WNBA first-team caliber season — and former No. 1 decide Rhyne Howard completes the Dream’s one-two guard punch. Brionna Jones (and Brittney Griner) vs. Aliyah Boston can also be a enjoyable battle down low. It’s a rematch from final yr’s first spherical (when Jones nonetheless performed for the Sun), when Boston had the higher hand.

Elsewhere, the frontcourt expertise in Storm-Aces will likely be appointment viewing, with A’ja Wilson enjoying at an otherworldly degree and Seattle stacked with the likes of Nneka Ogwumike, Ezi Magbegor and the up-and-coming Dominique Malonga. Will the Storm be capable to gradual Wilson down?

---

What recreation are you most excited to see Sunday?

Pelton: New York vs. Phoenix. Both of those groups had been anticipating a deep playoff run all season, however one will likely be dealing with an elimination Game 2. Neither needs to be in that scenario, particularly with troublesome journey between every recreation on this sequence.

Andrews: The star energy in Phoenix-New York alone makes it must-watch basketball. The defending champion’s roster options Breanna Stewart, Sabrina Ionescu, Jones, Emma Meesseman and Natasha Cloud (to call just a few). The Mercury have Thomas, Satou Sabally, Kahleah Copper and DeWanna Bonner. The reality there’s a lot at stake makes the sequence much more intriguing.

Philippou: There’s numerous familiarity between Las Vegas and Seattle, which additionally confronted off within the 2020, 2022 and 2024 playoffs. And that was earlier than Jewell Loyd was traded from the Storm to the Aces this previous offseason when her tenure within the Emerald City did not finish on the most effective of phrases. Las Vegas has been red-hot in August and September, whereas Seattle has been remarkably inconsistent. Can the Storm, determined for his or her first postseason win since Sue Bird retired, make issues attention-grabbing in Vegas and this sequence as an entire?

---

What storyline are you most excited to look at play out this postseason?

Michael Voepel: The Dream possible really feel missed among the many playoff groups, however they should not be. They are a much better group offensively than final season, once they averaged a league-low 77.0 PPG, particularly from behind the arc. So it is going to be attention-grabbing to see how nicely the Dream play within the postseason when their offense might carry them additional than they have been since 2018. Their sequence with Indiana is intriguing because the groups break up their 4 regular-season video games.

Philippou: I’m fascinated to see what the Liberty appear like within the playoffs. Their repeat bid has gone awry, largely on account of accidents, nevertheless it’s honest to say they’ve underachieved this season.

Now their street to a Finals return is extremely troublesome and it will not include home-court benefit all postseason. With their large three wholesome, and Meesseman within the combine, will the Liberty appear like the dominant group we noticed in the beginning of the season — or will they shockingly flame out early? And what would an early exit imply heading into 2026 and past?

Pelton: I’m fascinated by the Aces. They do not make any sense. Acknowledging the common season is now 44 video games, different groups that put collectively lengthy successful streaks had single-digit losses somewhat than beginning the streak at .500 like Las Vegas. (The 2014 WNBA champion Phoenix Mercury, for instance, gained 16 consecutive video games within the common season, the place they had been 29-5.) And partially due to their 53-point loss to the Lynx, the Aces nonetheless had solely the WNBA’s fifth-best level differential, behind the Fever. I consider Las Vegas has improved right into a championship contender, however we cannot actually know till the playoffs.

---

First-round playoff predictions

---

The prime 25 gamers within the WNBA playoffs and a red-hot MVP race

Earlier this week, ESPN ranked the most effective gamers within the postseason. Then the highest two gamers on the listing — MVP front-runners Napheesa Collier and A’ja Wilson — went out and closed the common season on much more jaw-dropping excessive notes as they made their closing instances for MVP.

On Thursday within the closing recreation earlier than the playoffs, Wilson had 23 factors and 19 rebounds to steer the Aces to their sixteenth consecutive victory, which clinched the No. 2 seed for Las Vegas. The three-time MVP completed the common season averaging a WNBA-best 23.4 factors per recreation.

Earlier within the evening, Collier hit 3 of 4 3-pointers to lift her taking pictures share from behind the arc simply sufficient to turn out to be the second participant in WNBA historical past to register a 50/40/90 season — hitting 53.1% of her photographs from the ground, 40.3% from 3-point vary and 90.6% from the free throw line. Collier, who has but to win her first MVP award, joined Elena Delle Donne (2019) within the report books however is the primary participant to perform the feat whereas averaging over 20 factors. (She averaged 22.9 factors.)