Briefing Paper: National Climate Risk Assessment (NCRA)

The decisions we make as we speak – on how quickly we minimize local weather air pollution over coming years – will decide precisely how harmful our future turns into. The national risk assessment outlines the worst dangers that Australia faces, from excessive warmth, to flooding and drought, into the long run. The solely answer is to quickly slash local weather air pollution from coal, oil and fuel, and exchange power sources with clear alternate options.

The report comes because the Australian Government units a 2035 local weather goal. In doing so it’s making a alternative on how a lot hurt to Australia it’s keen to simply accept, as Australians expertise more and more catastrophic impacts on our lifestyle.

This briefing paper explains the National Climate Risk Assessment (NCRA) in context, and summarises its key findings. 

This abstract was ready primarily based on the NCRA Overview. Climate Council researchers will analyse the NCRA’s detailed technical reviews over coming days.

How dangerous will local weather change get for Australians?

Australia is already experiencing extra intense heatwaves on land and sea, rising seas and extra frequent and extreme flooding. What occurs subsequent relies on what we collectively do now.

Existing world efforts – together with Australia’s – are inadequate to restrict world heating to safer thresholds. Based on present insurance policies to chop local weather air pollution, the world is estimated to warmth up by 2.7ºC by 2100. This means the NCRA’s 3ºC situation is almost definitely to happen primarily based on the alternatives we’re making.

The NCRA has assessed local weather dangers and impacts in Australia at three ranges of world heating: 1.5ºC, 2ºC, and 3ºC above pre-industrial ranges. At these ranges, it identifies extreme dangers with catastrophic impacts for Australians if we don’t do extra to chop local weather air pollution. It notes that:

• Climate change will disrupt our very lifestyle. “Changes in Australia’s climate will not occur gradually or smoothly. Reaching potential climate and ecological tipping points is very likely to result in abrupt changes” (p.10).
• Communities shall be slammed in lots of, extreme methods. “It is likely we will experience more compounding, cascading and concurrent hazards”, like heavy flooding after a tropical cyclone, or bushfires and elevated air air pollution after excessive heatwaves (p. 10).

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Who is most in danger?

The report finds that the intense climate occasions of as we speak are prone to resemble the common expertise of Australians sooner or later if we don’t minimize local weather air pollution a lot additional, and quicker. (p.22)

All Australians shall be at higher threat, with essentially the most important and speedy enhance in dangers recognized for Queenslanders, Tasmanians, and people in NSW and the ACT (p.26).

With sea ranges rising round Australia, and extra frequent excessive occasions growing, the chance of inundation and injury to coastal infrastructure and communities in low-lying areas are a serious threat, together with in main cities and exterior territories (p.22). If populations remained static, then that places 597,000 folks at direct threat of coastal hazards by 2030.

Those residing in distant communities are susceptible as we speak due to restricted telecommunications and weak provide chains (p.22). In the long run, local weather impacts may exacerbate this vulnerability, doubling freight prices for some regional areas in QLD, WA, and the NT (p.51). 

Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Peoples are already experiencing the adversarial impacts of local weather change, which exacerbate current well being and social disparities. Displacement from Country as a result of local weather change can have extreme well being and wellbeing penalties, together with elevated homelessness and weakening of household and social connections, id, and belonging. Other local weather dangers to the well being and wellbeing of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples could also be pushed by lowered air high quality, excessive warmth, flooding, interrupted well being companies, and power insecurity (p. 34).

What can we do about it?

Today’s decisions are shaping the sort of world we are going to reside in for many years. Burning coal, oil and fuel is inflicting world heating, driving local weather disruption and a extra harmful future.  Rapidly slicing local weather air pollution can maintain all of us safer. That’s why the local weather targets we’re about to set are so essential. 

The Climate Change Authority publicly drafted a goal vary of 65-75% discount in local weather air pollution by 2035, in comparison with 2005 ranges. Scientific evaluation commissioned by the Climate Council exhibits {that a} 75% goal aligns with under 2.3ºC of warming above pre-industrial ranges – which implies that is inadequate to maintain Australians safer from lots of the catastrophic local weather impacts recognized on this report. 

Net zero by 2035 is the one goal out there to Australia that gives a robust probability of contributing to holding world heating under 2°C.² The larger the Government units our local weather goal, the extra they are going to be doing to assist maintain Australians safer.

Climate Council has launched a petition calling on the Australian Government to set the strongest doable 2035 local weather goal – and take pressing motion to satisfy it. Sign the petition now!

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¹ Data sourced from Figure 4, p.35. Rounded to nearest 10%.
² For Australia, reaching web zero by 2035 and a 75% discount by 2030 is aligned with a two-thirds probability of limiting warming to 1.9ºC above pre-industrial ranges. Analysis is predicated on a per-capita justifiable share of the remaining carbon price range.