Opinion: New local weather report warns property costs face a $611 billion hit. What does that imply?

The following opinion piece by Dr Ehsan Noroozinejad, Urban Transformations Research Centre, was first printed with full hyperlinks on The Conversation (opens in a brand new window).

Climate dangers are hitting the place Australians really feel it most: at dwelling.

One of the headline-grabbing figures in a brand new local weather threat evaluation was that Australian property values may take a A$611 billion hit by 2050, underneath a 3°C warming state of affairs.

That stage of warming is one thing Australia wants plan for. As a brand new National Adaptation Plan, additionally launched yesterday, stated:

it’s prudent to plan for world warming ranges of two°C to three°C by the tip of this century, with temperatures in Australia prone to monitor greater than the worldwide common.

But what does that $611 billion hit to property values truly imply? And what extra can we do to raised defend our properties – together with 1.5 million of them already at excessive or very excessive threat as we speak?

The $611 billion property value forecast

Australia’s first complete National Climate Risk evaluation, launched yesterday, forecasts losses in Australian “property values” may attain $571 billion by 2030 underneath a 3°C warming state of affairs. By 2050, that might hit $611 billion.

To be clear, that isn’t the invoice to restore or rebuild properties after disasters. And it doesn’t embrace the price of changing public property equivalent to roads, bridges or energy stations.

It’s the drop in market worth of properties as local weather threat turns into clearer, consumers pay much less, banks could worth properties decrease, and insurance coverage can get costlier or tougher to acquire.

For instance, if a home which may have bought for $800,000 with out these dangers sells for $720,000 as soon as flood threat and better premiums are factored in, that $80,000 distinction is a “loss in value”.

Aggregated throughout the nation, these particular person reductions add as much as the evaluation’s forecast of $611 billion by 2050.

1.5 million properties at excessive threat – even now

The evaluation discovered about 751,000 (8.2%) of residential buildings are at the moment positioned in “high risk” areas for floods, bushfires, tropical cyclones and heatwaves, whereas 794,000 (8.7%) are in “very high risk” areas. That’s a complete of greater than 1.5 million properties as we speak.

Even underneath a conservative 2°C warming state of affairs, that’s anticipated to rise to 789,000 properties (8.9%) in high-risk areas, and greater than 1 million (11.1%) in very high-risk areas.

And you don’t need to personal a beachfront dwelling to be at rising threat from rising sea ranges.

The evaluation discovered 1.5 million folks in coastal communities – particularly in low-lying areas inside 10 kilometres of soppy shorelines – could possibly be in excessive and really excessive threat areas for coastal flooding and erosion by 2050. That may develop to a 3rd of coastal communities – dwelling to greater than 3 million folks – by 2090 if populations stayed put.

Costlier dwelling insurance coverage, if you may get it

The new evaluation additionally warns insurance coverage affordability and availability are prone to worsen, with flow-on results to mortgages and home costs if insurance coverage cowl is withdrawn.

Direct impacts from floods, coastal inundation, fires, wind and subsidence may greater than double the variety of properties classed as excessive threat by 2100.

For some properties, insurance coverage premiums may rise sufficient to knock 10% off the property worth.

That all assumes issues keep the identical as they’re as we speak. Governments, communities and households can all do extra in response to those two new experiences.

4 key gaps we have to act on

Australia’s new adaptation plan is a begin. It outlines nationwide management throughout seven methods and units out $3.6 billion dedicated since 2022 and round $9 billion to 2030 for measures that assist resilience. These embrace the $1 billion Disaster Ready Fund and concrete river cooling initiatives.

But what else would assist?

The federal authorities is predicted to announce its new emissions discount targets this week.

In the meantime, there are 4 pillars of sensible adaptation that may give Australians larger confidence, all of which align with the brand new evaluation’s proof.

1) National floodplain mapping with constant knowledge: Australians want clear, comparable hazard bands to information land-use planning and constructing choices. The evaluation factors to risk-based planning and constructing codes as core instruments. National mapping would feed these instantly.

2) Open-access excessive climate–water fashions: publicly accessible instruments linking rainfall, rivers, floodplains and coasts, so councils and insurers can stress-test choices off the identical, clear system.

3) Continuous monitoring and occasion forensics: after each main flood, hearth or storm, we have to gather constant publicity, injury and claims knowledge to reconstruct what failed – and why. This would assist the variation plan’s push for efficient, evidence-based adaptation and would keep away from investing in measures that don’t work.

4) Regional ‘testbeds’ linking researchers, councils and insurers: piloting risk-based planning, climate-adjusted constructing codes, and nature-based coastal protections (equivalent to mangroves) in high-risk areas. After testing, we then must scale up what works.

This would assist us develop extra community-level plans to scale back injury payments and make properties insurable for longer.

What households and communities can do

If you’re in a flood-prone avenue, elevate electrics and home equipment and use flood-tolerant supplies. In bushfire zones, ember-proof vents and improve roofs and gutters.

Rooftop photo voltaic plus batteries and area people microgrids may help maintain the facility on throughout warmth and storms. The evaluation lists microgrids and storage as sensible adaptation measures for vitality resilience.

Finally, attempt utilizing the evaluation report’s new interactive on-line maps to know your native threat. These present the place local weather dangers are already excessive (for instance, elements of northern Australia and coastal areas) and the way it grows with elevated warming.

ENDS

16 September 2025

Media Unit