Ministry of Foreign Affairs Singapore

Editor-in-Chief of SPH Chinese Media Group Lee Huay Leng (Moderator): Good afternoon, girls and gents, thanks, Minister for becoming a member of us in the present day for this fireplace chat. Would you first wish to make opening remarks?

 

Minister: Let me attempt to rapidly gallop by just a few factors. Now, I do know you’ve got already had superb morning classes, however what I wished to start out with is to get all of you to take a step again and take a historic perspective. In 221 BC, Qin Shi Huang unified China and imposed a typical script, which in a way, relying in your perspective, we nonetheless labour underneath or maximise the benefit of a typical scripture out of China. What else did he do? The Great Wall. Basically, the purpose about 221 BC is the political crucial for China to take care of territorial integrity, to take care of unity, no matter it takes.

 

In 1433, through the Ming Dynasty, Admiral Zheng He and the tip of the seventh expedition. 1433 was when the eunuchs had been within the fleets, the students had been within the treasury, they usually persuaded the Emperor to burn the Imperial fleets – they had been a waste of time, waste of cash, exploring the world. That is an instance of China deciding, I’ve acquired nothing to be taught from the remainder of the world. I’ve reached the zenith of civilization, and all these guys wandering throughout the oceans are losing time, losing cash.

 

Next, 1840 – the Opium Wars. This is the Qing Dynasty. Between the Ming and the Qing dynasties, by the point the Opium War took place, it is price remembering what was occurring in Europe. In the previous centuries in Europe, the Renaissance, the Age of Science, the Enlightenment, the Industrial Revolution had occurred. The cause why I’m talking English, and lots of of you listed below are talking English both as a primary or second language, is as a result of the Industrial Revolution started in England unfold to Europe, and the final word winner was the United States of America, however China missed it. The Opium War in 1840 marks the bottom level of Chinese historical past in a few thousand years, as a result of they missed the commercial revolution primarily based on science.

 

Next in 1868, the Meiji Restoration. What occurred in that interval from 1840 and 1868 is that the Europeans, on the idea of science and know-how and ocean-going ships, had come out to Asia to colonise us, to take our pure sources. And after all, they’d reached China and Japan. But right here is the place a fork in historical past occurred. In the case of China, they tried to conscribe international expeditions in China. So, as an example, Canton or Guangzhou, they tried to restrict the foreigners to those locations. The Imperial dynasty then was nonetheless in a defensive posture – preserve foreigners out, restrict them. They nonetheless refused to simply accept that the world had modified, and really they had been on the best way out. In the case of Japan, the Meiji Restoration, in truth, led to an overthrow of the Tokugawa dynasty. Japan was the primary Asian nation to industrialise, they usually copied the West. In truth, they copied the West an excessive amount of. So, by the point 1895 got here alongside, not solely was Japan industrialised and militarily sturdy, it determined that if the white man can construct international provide chains on the idea of empire, so can I. And you noticed in fast rapidity, Japan took Taiwan, took Korea, fought a struggle with Russia, which it received, and naturally, started Japan’s aggression to China. And then we will speak concerning the second world struggle, and now we simply had the eightieth anniversary.

 

The level I wished to boost in leaping by all these nice historic issues is that there are deeper underlying tectonic forces which historical past has revealed. First, know-how issues. Second, a closing of the thoughts – erecting partitions and being defensive – is a mistake. Third, wars and financial cataclysms often comply with these durations of nice despair.

 

What occurred within the final 80 years was that when America received the Second World War, it was a really uncommon winner, as a result of the defeated international locations, Germany and Japan, had been rebuilt by American generosity. The Marshall Plan uplifted Europe. Yes, there was a distraction from the Cold War, however everyone knows communism as an financial paradigm that did not work. So, by 1990 the Berlin Wall got here down and by 1991, the Soviet Union dissolved. The final 80 years have been a really uncommon interval in world historical past the place you had a beneficiant, victorious hegemon referred to as the United States, that constructed up a so-called rules-based mannequin of globalisation – which all of us benefited from. But the largest winner within the final 45 to 47 years has been China, as a result of Deng Xiaoping launched into 改革开放(reform and opening up), which is the opening of China. And what we’re witnessing now’s that if I ask you, who has mastered the applied sciences of the longer term? Or who’s extra prone to make the most of these applied sciences to attain financial revenue? This would in flip imply strategic benefit and potential energy for the longer term [for them]. I’ll cease there, however I hope I’ve given you adequate breadcrumbs, to attract some attention-grabbing conclusions.

 

Lee: Thank you Minister for beginning off with these historic views. But, being a journalist, I’ve to tug it again to what’s occurring now. And I feel a number of the viewers, they wish to hear your views on what’s occurring proper now.

 

Minister: So, what’s occurring now’s the winner of the Second World War [the US] has determined that, effectively, I was 40% of world GDP, it was price my blood and treasure to underwrite a beneficiant rules-based system, which allowed everyone to rise. But now that America is 26% of world GDP, it’s solely authentic for the American voter to say, “Why should we pay? People are free-riding on us.” Even the Europeans have mentioned, “We outsource manufacturing to China, we outsource security to America, and we outsource energy to Russia”. So, America has determined that the globalisation of the final 80 years might have been helpful previously, however not now.

 

China, on the finish of the Second World War, had 1% or 2% of world GDP. Today, it’s within the excessive teenagers, crossing to twenty%. And China says, “But wait a minute, I don’t look in terms of centuries. I look in terms of millennia, thousands of years.” And, in case you take a multi thousand-year view of historical past, China, when it’s at peace, has its borders intact, and is operating a continental sized financial system, has often constituted between 25% to 30% of world GDP. So, China says, “I’m entitled to that – how can you tell me I can’t? I’m not asking for any special favours. My success is my hard work and savings, and I’m not going to make the mistake of the Ming Dynasty or the Qing Dynasty. I’m going to master technology and I’m going to remain open to the world.” So, from China’s perspective, they don’t seem to be doing something incorrect, however they do not settle for an American led, rules-based international world order.

 

And then you definitely’ve acquired all the center powers, Europe, India, Middle East, and ASEAN, the latter which has a bigger inhabitants than Europe. If you add up all our GDPs, it makes us both the fourth or fifth largest on this planet. And we are saying, effectively, you understand, if we play our playing cards proper, we additionally generally is a center energy. So, we at the moment are in a interval of nice flux, which is the theme of this occasion, as a result of the previous presumptions, the previous reflexes, not apply. What goes to occur inside America itself – will it nonetheless preserve the age of cause, science, enterprise and innovation? Will it nonetheless be the grasp of future applied sciences? For China, it really has some basic challenges too. China’s per capita GDP is about USD 13,000 USD. In 1991 when the bubble burst in Japan, Japan’s per capita GDP was about US 29,000. This implies that when Japan ran out of infants and its workforce peaked, and its inventory market and its property market crashed, its per capita GDP when the bubble burst was greater than double China’s GDP in nominal phrases in the present day. So, China has acquired vital challenges to beat even whereas China has acquired vital strategic benefits. So, we should see what occurs in China.

 

For the remainder of us, I feel the elemental questions nonetheless are, can we grasp the applied sciences? Can we preserve openness? Can we preserve a rules-based world system that offers us all a good likelihood to commerce, to fabricate, to grasp applied sciences and to get forward? And there are some good old style values. First, there’s acquired to be some respect for information. It can’t be that everybody is current in echo chambers, and information and science would not matter. Second, there must be thrift. You cannot spend greater than you earn, fashionable financial concept however. And, in case you earn greater than you spend, then you definitely’re a web creditor. If you imagine that we’re now in a brand new technological revolution, historical past has proven us that within the early part of a technological revolution, you usually get a gilded age. It takes time for these applied sciences to be democratised so {that a} new center class can rise on the idea of these applied sciences. How lengthy will it take us to maneuver from that Gilded Age to a brand new G.I. Bill primarily based on schooling – the G.I. Bill in America, put up Second World War, after they expanded schooling alternatives to the returning GIs. It’s elevating the middle-class productive capability. Then you’ve gotten a pro-growth financial system. You get good return of {dollars} in your capital, and you aren’t squabbling over the distribution of debt burdens between demographic teams or between the current technology and the longer term technology.

 

I am unable to assist promoting for Singapore in such an age. Would you favor to be in a spot that’s AAA rated in an age when return on capital exceeds return on labour? Would you favor your state to be a web creditor or web debtor in an age of a technological revolution? Would you favor to reside in a state that’s scientifically literate, that’s organised on logical and rational phrases, politically? And, in an age of interdependence, would you favor to reside in a state that’s all the time scanning outwards, in search of risks and alternatives? And, in a time when the best challenges to the world are local weather change, pandemics, AI gone incorrect, the difficulty of managing the worldwide commons is extra essential than ever earlier than. So, my level is, you understand, do not lose hope in Singapore, I feel we have got some fundamentals proper, however we want to pay attention to the bigger currents around the globe.

 

Lee: Minister, on this world of flux, being a Foreign Minister for a small nation, how do you make a tangible distinction in international coverage? Do you’re feeling extra powerless, or do you assume that there are extra alternatives?

 

Minister: First, it isn’t about me. I’m a believer in appreciation of historical past. I’m a believer in fiscal rectitude. I’m a believer in know-how, and I’m additionally a believer in relationship-building. I feel I’ve had a very exhilarating ten-year experience as a result of I’ve had a ringside seat to a technological revolution, a world in flux. I’ve had the chance to satisfy and be within the room with all the important thing leaders, international locations, massive and small, and I’ve been capable of face each strain and to resist strain and to attempt our greatest to maintain Singapore related, secure, and preserve Singapore’s fame for reliability and belief. And that is significantly essential when your subsequent query can be, how do you have interaction the US and China with China?

 

Lee: I’ll go to China first. This yr marks the thirty fifth anniversary. We all know that. And you’ve gotten spent this decade along with your counterpart, Mr Wang Yi.

 

Minister: Yes, whom I think about an actual buddy.

 

Lee: And I feel you’ve gotten met for not lower than 18 instances or so.

 

Minister: I’ve misplaced rely. I imply, I’m going to China yearly. See him a number of instances, China or different elements of the world.

 

Lee: And with a youthful, new PM that we’ve got now, partaking with them. You sit within the assembly rooms with them. Can you share with us your observations of Singapore-China relations.

 

Minister: Well, to begin with, we are saying we rejoice 35 years this yr, however really our relationships go method again. You discuss Zheng He and the remaining. I imply, there have been Chinese fleets and Chinese merchants in Southeast Asia for hundreds of years. Second level, the place else on this planet do you’ve gotten 74% of the inhabitants with Chinese ancestry? And the reply is, both China or Singapore. We are distinctive. We are the one impartial, sovereign political entity with a Chinese ancestral majority. I’m saying it’s a distinctive relationship due to this linguistic, cultural, and historic hyperlinks. But having mentioned that, in case you go to China and ask, what number of cities have a inhabitants of 5 million or six million? And the reply is, rather a lot. Singapore’s worth proposition is to not be yet one more medium-sized Chinese metropolis with six million individuals. Our worth proposition is to be: “same, same, but different”, to cite my mentor, Mr Lim Swee Say. Yes, there is a Chinese majority, sure, we perceive Mandarin, Chinese historical past and tradition, however completely different, to be able to be worthwhile. The day that we neglect the must be completely different is the day we lose our price to China. At the very best stage of presidency, each in China and in Singapore, we perceive that the day that Singapore is only a vassal state or a tributary state, or Singapore can not say no, is the day we lose our price. So it’s a relationship which I imagine, on the highest stage, there may be mutual regard, there may be mutual respect, and there may be belief; however not on the idea of claiming “yes, sir, yes, sir, three bags full” each time the large nation desires to specific its preferences. So, I say this in all humility, as a result of we’re a metropolis state. China is a continental sized, civilizational state. We don’t have any illusions about it, however I’m saying that we’ve got a novel and particular relationship, and to this point, it has gone very effectively, and I can put hand to coronary heart and say we’ve got been trustworthy, dependable, helpful, and related to China. But we can not keep nonetheless. You see, China has clearly remodeled itself, and Singapore has to maintain in search of methods that we are going to be helpful and related for the way forward for China.

 

Next factor is, by no means ever neglect, we’re a metropolis state within the coronary heart of Southeast Asia. This is our neighbourhood. Actually, we’re blessed to have a neighbourhood, which is, I imply, there can be some border points and issues, however typically, this can be a zone of peace. ASEAN can be celebrating its sixtieth anniversary in 2027 and has fairly rightly targeted on financial integration. We’re speaking about energy grids, connecting cables, connecting fiber, connecting pipes, connecting bits, connecting digital fee techniques. By specializing in financial integration, we’ve got made our space a zone of serious financial prospects and alternative.

 

So, my level is, it has been exhilarating for me to have watched all this. It’s a deep honour to take part in a small method. But I’m all the time, all the time conscious that we stand on the shoulders of our previous generations. You know, Huay Leng, you’ve got lived in China. Every time I’m going to the Great Hall of the People or if I’m going to the Rashtrapati Bhavan in New Delhi, the equal of the Istana, the thought all the time involves me, if my nice grandparents had not left China, and on my father’s facet had not left India, do you assume their nice grandson can be within the Great Hall of the People? I do not assume so. We have made a hit of our system and a hit with the alternatives that had been introduced to us by being within the coronary heart of Southeast Asia. We have a tough working, disciplined individuals, a wise, rational, trustworthy and competent authorities, and we’ve got seized each alternative that got here our method, however with good, old style values.

 

Lee: So that’s our set of relations with China.

 

Minister: Yes.

 

Lee: But there’s additionally strain build up from the opposite facet.

 

Minister: From America.

 

Lee: Yes, the opposite buddy that we’ve got.

 

Minister: Same factor. Most individuals nonetheless underestimate how essential America is to the Southeast Asian financial system. The quantity of funding that America has put into Southeast Asia is greater than what America has invested in India, China, Japan, ROK mixed. Most individuals nonetheless do not realise that. Now, are there Chinese investments in Southeast Asia? There are, however it’s a fraction of what America has put in. Of course, in commerce, there isn’t any doubt about it. Overall figures, China is the largest buying and selling accomplice. But in our case, America is the largest buying and selling accomplice for companies, in order that’s funding in commerce. Technology, a minimum of for the previous 80 years, there’s been no query that America has been the forefront of that, and our openness to American firms, to American applied sciences, to achieve entry. And for us, there isn’t any method our per capita GDP now can be what it’s if we didn’t have entry to American know-how, American markets, and if we weren’t a helpful host of multinational companies – hundreds of them – and if we weren’t part of a essential node in international provide chains. That’s what has introduced us to the place we’re. But identical factor with America, I’d say two issues. It can’t be “yes, sir, yes, sir three bags full” to all the things the Americans need. Second, which I’m all the time very conscious of, because the Foreign Minister, once I go to Beijing and I’m going to Washington, I say precisely the identical factor to my counterparts Marco Rubio and Wang Yi. You cannot get away with attempting to whisper one model to at least one facet after which a unique model to the opposite facet. So, consistency. We should say no occasionally, however after we say no, both to China or America, it isn’t as a result of the opposite facet is instigating. I can be helpful, however I can’t be made use of. I can be trustworthy, I can be useful, I’ll be constructive, and I’ll be related. So far, this sort of modus operandi has served us effectively in our relationships with each America and China.

 

Lee: But now that the strain has constructed up, even for regular financial cooperation, the strain can be magnified.

 

Minister: Yes. So now, if I used to be in America, I do not promote a lot concerning the investments in Singapore, as a result of America says, no, no, I would like my investments in America, proper? So I’ll say, however you understand, you’ve gotten pores and skin within the sport. Why? Your American firms are doing effectively in Southeast Asia. Why would you not need them to proceed to make the most of their head begin? Similarly, I inform the Americans and I inform the Chinese as effectively, Singapore should stay open to each American and Chinese companies. I can not exclude you on the idea of the place you got here from. Having mentioned that, I would like trustworthy enterprise right here. So, no hanky panky, no utilizing us and utilizing our fame to cowl up false declarations and issues like that. We will run an trustworthy store. And we worth the sanctity of contract. Singapore is just not an oriental society that relies upon simply on 关系 (connections), but when I signal one thing, I imply it and I’ll reside as much as it. It is this mixture of the Western idea of rule of regulation, and the Oriental idea which locations a premium on relationship and belief. When we will get these two issues collectively, we grow to be an open, inclusive, excessive belief, extremely environment friendly node in a worldwide community. I feel even on this state of flux, this sort of working system, this sort of working ideas are nonetheless worthwhile.

 

Lee: I feel that is what individuals respect Singapore for.

 

Minister: I hope so. I imply, we are going to do our greatest to take care of this for so long as doable.

 

Lee: I solely have time for most likely one query.

 

Basically, I simply need to ask since you talked about concerning the significance of the American investments in Southeast Asia. But in time to come back, if China’s know-how turns into very superior and China’s investing extra on this area…

 

Minister: The extra the merrier.

 

Lee: So how then would this equilibrium change?

 

Minister: I assume the bigger level I’m attempting to make is to keep away from a binary considering that it have to be one or the opposite. I’m telling the Europeans, the Americans and the Chinese that, look, Singapore is open for enterprise. We are a technocratic and technophilic system, which suggests we’re after the most recent know-how. I do not care the place it comes from, however we are going to do enterprise actually, and we is not going to play video games, and we are going to reside as much as our phrase. Three technological revolutions occurring now are in digital applied sciences, particularly AI, renewable vitality and biotechnology. Actually, in case you ask me proper now, AI, I feel the Americans have a lead, perhaps a few months, a yr or two. On renewable vitality, I feel China is within the lead. If you have a look at electrical automobiles, batteries, photo voltaic panels, generators, most likely even nuclear know-how, sure, civilian nuclear know-how. I feel China is forward. On biotechnology, which I do know a bit of bit about from my previous life, it’s a very, very shut race. So, I do not know who’s finally going to attain a decisive benefit. Actually, my hope is that we are going to proceed to have a world the place everybody in science and know-how really works on a typical stack, and we’re competing to innovate, competing to convey concepts to enterprise, competing to make requirements of residing and productiveness for everybody to rise collectively. But to be able to do this, we should keep away from a binary win-lose form of considering. I’m saying for the utmost extent doable, we’ve got remained open, rational, and disciplined.

 

Lee: Do the opposite ASEAN international locations share this comparable view?

 

Minister: If you have a look at what different international locations are doing, I feel everybody is aware of that this can be a time of flux, a time of hazard, and a time of alternative. Everyone, in their very own method, is attempting to stay open and to have a extra balanced set of relationships, however every nation will make the marginally completely different adjustment to their international coverage. In our case, as I mentioned, we preserve a sure consistency, steadiness, and predictability. Actually, Singapore’s international coverage is predictable as a result of you understand our ideas, you understand what we care about, you know the way we function.

 

Lee: Have ASEAN international locations shifted their positions?

 

Minister: Well, sure and no. Okay, let’s do a labored instance, Southeast Asia. If you return 60 years, the issue for Southeast Asia was that we had been an enviornment for proxy wars through the Cold War. That’s why you had the Vietnam War, even the issues in Cambodia, Laos, an enviornment for proxy wars. And we’re all very clear, we do not need to repeat that. We don’t need to make ourselves an enviornment for different individuals’s wars. Next factor, on the finish of the Cold War, the principle improvement in Southeast Asia was financial integration and improvement, and to concentrate on that – by no means thoughts the political variations, the variety in political techniques, language, faith – simply concentrate on economics. Southeast Asia has achieved effectively typically. So, we are going to proceed to concentrate on that. But some international locations, by geography, by historical past and by economics, are extra depending on one or the opposite. And to me, I feel each nation has to do what it calculates in its personal nationwide curiosity and make these changes relying in your dependencies and in your evaluation of who’s in a greater place to provide you extra profit.

 

Singapore has the benefit that we’re moderately effectively developed, and we stand on our personal two toes. We aren’t depending on anybody else to battle and defend us. We will defend ourselves, thanks very a lot. We have the fiscal reserves of our personal. We aren’t asking for help, we’re not asking for developmental assist. We are asking to do enterprise as equals, as companions, with a contractual relationship. What I’m attempting to say, in a protracted roundabout method is, do not decide different international locations too rapidly. Everyone has their very own vulnerabilities, their very own menace evaluation, their very own alternatives, and they’re making these mandatory changes. They can not behave like us, and we must always not count on them to behave like us. So, we’ve got to be taught to reside with this variety of approaches, however the widespread factor for Southeast Asia – we do not need wars, we do not need exterior wars to be fought right here. We need to concentrate on economics, and we imagine that the elemental motto for financial improvement this present day is know-how. For know-how, the important thing factor is to uplift the capability and the abilities of our individuals to take full benefit of know-how. If we will do this, we will safe peace and prosperity in Southeast Asia within the subsequent few many years, and we are going to simply be quantity 4 within the international GDP rankings. But then we’ve got to work on the opposite concern of inequality, and as I mentioned, elevating a affluent center class all through Southeast Asia – that may be a political, financial, social problem, which in Singapore, we’re additionally targeted on. So, bringing down the Gini Coefficient, uplifting academic capability – particularly for households or teams who might in any other case be left behind. It’s not about economics versus social coverage. Actually all of it dovetails. You get schooling proper, you get social coverage proper, you get fiscal coverage proper, all cylinders firing, you’ll succeed, you will be sturdy, you will be extra equal, extra united, and we hope to attain that in Southeast Asia as effectively.

 

Lee: With that, thanks, Minister.

 

Minister: Thank you all very a lot.

 

Emcee: Thank you. An enormous hand please for Doctor Vivian Balakrishnan and Miss Lee Huay Leng. Thank you for that insightful fireplace chat.

 

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