H1B visa: Trump’s insurance policies could kill the India-US journey market

Airlines are reducing again on flights between India and the US, anticipating a decline in journey because the Trump administration turns hawkish about New Delhi, tightening visa guidelines amid an unresolved tariff battle.

On Friday, the US introduced that firms would want to pay a $100,000 charge for brand new H-1B visa purposes. The step is being seen as an enormous blow to probably the most vital strategic long-haul markets for airways.

Currently, the United States points 85,000 H-1B visas yearly, with India accounting for almost 75% of those permits.

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“This new H-1B visa policy is likely to discourage travel among a very significant segment of Indian professionals working in the U.S. While we may see a short-term spike before the fee deadline, in the longer run, it could reduce family visits and non-essential trips to India,” said Ravi Gosain, President, Indian Association of Tour Operators. “Given that over 70% of H-1B visas are held by Indians, the impact on certain India–U.S. routes could be notable.”

The H-1B curbs comply with a interval of rigidity between the 2 nations after the White House successfully imposed 50% tariffs – the very best on the planet – for a broad swathe of merchandise exports from India.

This January, airways are anticipated to function 27% fewer seats between India and the US as in contrast with the earlier yr, in response to Cirium, an aviation analysis firm. The reduce is primarily led by Air India, which might function 278 flights in contrast with 444 flights final January.

Industry executives mentioned main Middle East carriers like Emirates and Qatar Airways, which carry passengers between India and US by Dubai and Doha, are additionally seeing a discount in passenger move.

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For airways, the complexity and price of working direct flights between India and the US has already elevated as US carriers have been avoiding Russian airspace since 2022. Air India, too, has been unable to make use of Pakistani airspace from March.

Air India has suspended flights to Washington beginning this month saying it will be in need of planes attributable to a deliberate retrofit program.

Airline officers say that whereas there was a gradual decline of occupancy on flights to and from the US, the decline has been sharp since March after the US Immigration and Customs Enforcement began raiding and detaining folks.

According to knowledge from the National Travel & Tourism Office of the U.S. Commerce Department, the variety of Indians travelling to the US dropped by 15% in August. It was the third consecutive month of decline, following an 8% year-on-year drop in June and 6% in July.

“If this sustains, there will be a structural change to a market considered evergreen by airlines. The US market was already getting softer following the uncertainty created by the immigration policies as many students and their parents did not travel this year. If tech companies hire Indian talent due to the H1b visa changes, that will take away a source of air traffic,” mentioned an airline official.