NASA scientists suggest nuking asteroid with likelihood of hitting moon

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One concept proposed for coping with an asteroid with a slight likelihood of hitting the moon in 2032? Just nuke it.

In a plan ripped straight from the script of the 1998 film “Armageddon,” scientists have prompt a easy, if violent, methodology of coping with a hard asteroid.

Just nuke it.

But on this case, it is not Earth that’s the celestial physique beneath risk. And the plan undoubtedly wouldn’t require sending Bruce Willis and Ben Affleck on a harrowing journey to the area rock itself.

Instead, a staff of researchers that features NASA scientists have put forth the daring concept of launching nuclear bombs at an asteroid with a slight likelihood of hitting the moon in 2032.

The asteroid in query may sound acquainted to you. Dubbed 2024 YR4, the area rock large enough to stage a metropolis grabbed headlines earlier in 2025 when it initially posed a traditionally excessive likelihood of crashing into Earth.

Here’s a refresher on 2024 YR4, and what to know concerning the new nuclear possibility.

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What is asteroid 2024 YR4? Does it pose a risk to Earth?

Because it is large enough to be deemed a “city killer,” asteroid 2024 YR4 grew to become a supply of alarm as a result of uncommonly excessive danger it had of colliding with Earth on Dec. 22, 2032.

The area rock was reported Dec. 27, 2024, to the Minor Planet Center, the official authority for observing and reporting new asteroids, comets and different small our bodies within the photo voltaic system. The object ultimately caught the attention of NASA and other astronomers when it rose on the U.S. Space Agency’s Sentry Impact Risk Table, which tracks any recognized asteroids with a non-zero chance of hitting Earth.

For a time, it was the one object amongst more than 37,000 known large space rocks with any likelihood of hitting Earth anytime quickly – with its chance of influence even rising to a report stage of three.1%.

That started to vary in late February as extra exact observations allowed scientists to successfully winnow down the asteroid’s odds of influence to a quantity so low, it’d as nicely be zero.

How massive is asteroid 2024 YR4?

Based observations from the James Webb Space Telescope, scientists know the asteroid’s approximate size may attain almost 300 feet, or concerning the dimension of a 10-story constructing.

Earth secure from YR4 asteroid, however influence odds for moon preserve rising

While Earth might now not be prone to a calamitous collision with the asteroid, the moon is not so fortunate.

Webb’s preliminary observations in March noticed the percentages of YR4 crashing into the moon rising from the 1.7% determine calculated in February to three.8%, based on NASA’s Center for Near Earth Object Studies, which tracks objects like asteroids on the company’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory in California.

Those odds rose once again to 4.3% after Webb’s newest observations have been made in May. According to NASA, the information helped enhance scientists’ understanding of the place the asteroid will likely be on Dec. 22, 2032, by almost 20%.

What would occur if asteroid hit moon?

If our cosmic neighbor have been to take such a success from an asteroid of that dimension, NASA has assured that the moon’s orbit round Earth wouldn’t be altered.

But in a brand new paper that has but to be peer-reviewed, a staff of researchers that features NASA scientists argue {that a} lunar influence of that magnitude may kick up particles that will threaten Earth’s satellites, and even astronauts on the International Space Station.

Scientists counsel blowing up asteroid with nuclear weapons

For that motive, the researchers put forth quite a few plans for scientists to forestall a collision – probably the most excessive of which is to launch a bunch of nukes on the asteroid.

Scientists might know the asteroid’s approximiate dimension, however they do not have correct approximations of the asteroid’s weight. Considering that, the researchers argue the world’s area businesses would not be capable to pull off a reconnaissance mission to collect information, after which manufacture a spacecraft in time with the specs wanted to efficiently crash into and knock the asteroid off its present trajectory.

Such a plan additionally comes with the added danger of inadvertently pushing the asteroid onto a collision course with Earth, the researchers declare.

But firing an arsenal of nuclear weapons on the asteroid would not require as a lot subtlety or nuance.

That’s why, the researchers argued, detonating the area rock utilizing “nuclear explosive devices” ought to be a adequate methodology for coping with the slight risk.

The mission, have been it to occur, would wish to launch between 2029 to late 2031, the staff concluded.

The paper was uploaded Sept. 15 to arxiv, a preprint analysis repository.

NASA has already nudged asteroid in DART take a look at

If an asteroid ever must be diverted from a collision course with Earth, a future planetary protection mission could also be extra prone to resemble a take a look at NASA pulled off three years in the past.

In September 2022, the U.S. area company demonstrated it was attainable to nudge an incoming asteroid out of hurt’s method by slamming a spacecraft into one as a part of its Double Asteroid Redirection Test, or DART.

Launched in November 2021, DART traveled for greater than 10 months earlier than crashing into Dimorphos at roughly 14,000 mph. Though the tiny asteroid posed no risk to Earth, NASA had got down to take a look at a technique of redirecting the orbital paths of threatening objects hurtling towards Earth.

As of October 2024, a craft from the European Space Agency is on the best way to get an upclose look on the asteroid’s remnants.

Hera launched Oct. 7 from Cape Canaveral Space Force Station in Florida on a two-year journey to Dimorphos, which is a tiny moonlet asteroid orbiting the bigger 2,560-foot area rock Didymos.

The spacecraft is predicted to enter the Didymos binary system’s orbit in October 2026, when it can decide simply how efficient NASA’s take a look at was, according to the agency. Officials hope that by analyzing the outcomes of NASA’s experiment, area businesses will likely be higher positioned to repeat the maneuver.

Eric Lagatta is the Space Connect reporter for the USA TODAY Network. Reach him at elagatta@gannett.com