Gaming out Trump’s 11 — and presumably extra — candidates for Fed chair

• Fed Governor Michelle Bowman

Bowman is a Trump appointee who at the moment serves because the central financial institution’s vice chair for supervision. She’s performed a key role within the administration’s pivot towards lighter-touch oversight.

“I know she just got there, but I love Miki Bowman,” Rep. Bill Huizenga, R-Mich., who serves as vice chair of the House Financial Services Committee, instructed Semafor. “If you made me king for the day, I think Miki would be a great, great option.”

Bowman supported the Fed’s determination to chop charges by a quarter-point earlier this month. But she indicated an openness to a extra aggressive marketing campaign final week when she stated she believes policymakers may have to “adjust policy at a faster pace and to a larger degree.”

• Fed Governor Christopher Waller

Bessent interviewed Trump-appointed Waller, who has impressed Trump advisers along with his willingness to depend on forecasting, as early as July. Like Powell, Waller is a longtime Fed official — which might imply his ties to the White House aren’t strong enough to earn Trump’s belief.

But Waller’s resume may also preserve traders calm as he pursues the identical aggressive rate of interest cuts Trump is in search of. Waller was one of many first Fed officers to advocate for decrease rates of interest earlier this 12 months, warning of a slowing labor market.

“Waller is probably my favorite among the current [candidates],” Sen. Thom Tillis, R-N.C., a pivotal vote on the committee with jurisdiction over Fed nominations, instructed Semafor.

• Former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh

Warsh, a Bush appointee who was additionally within the operating to helm Trump’s Treasury Department, emerged early as a favorite to take over for Powell. Passed over for Powell in 2017, he’s beforehand defended excessive rates of interest — however he signaled a pivot in July when he instructed Fox News that the Fed’s charges “are too high.”

“Warsh is an incredibly talented guy whose views of Fed policy and monetary policy are perfectly aligned with the administration’s views,” Rep. Andy Barr, R-Ky., who chairs the House Financial Services Committee’s monetary establishments panel, instructed Semafor.

Barr added that he has “shared my high opinion of Kevin Warsh with the Treasury secretary.”

• White House adviser Kevin Hassett

Hassett, one other frontrunner for the job, is a vocal advocate for Trump’s financial agenda as director of his National Economic Council.

Some former colleagues say that monitor file means a Hassett chairmanship may jeopardize the Fed’s independence as Trump seeks higher management over the central financial institution. Hassett, nonetheless, has said monetary policy “needs to be fully independent of political influence — including from President Trump.”

• Fed Governor Philip Jefferson

A two-time Joe Biden appointee, Jefferson acquired broad bipartisan assist every time the Senate voted on his affirmation. Still, some Republican lawmakers stated Trump could also be reluctant to faucet a policymaker beforehand nominated by a Democrat.

Jefferson, who can be the Fed’s first Black chair, has saved a lower profile than different former Fed vice chairs. His pushback in opposition to an effort to overtake capital necessities earned him reward from Washington allies of the banking business, which despised that proposal.

• Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan

Logan, traditionally one of many Fed’s extra hawkish officers, doesn’t get a vote on rates of interest this 12 months. But she has spoken frequently concerning the significance of utilizing them to cease tariffs from driving costs up.

Her determination to not tackle financial coverage in remarks last month in Mexico City fueled some hypothesis that she may very well be weighing a pivot towards extra open advocacy for decrease charges.

• BlackRock’s Rick Rieder

Like Waller, Trump advisers view Rieder’s willingness to lean on forecasts as a plus. He’s additionally advocated for extra aggressive charge cuts, saying in August that the Fed can be justified in chopping charges by twice as much as they did.

• Jefferies’ David Zervos

Like Rieder, Zervos is a Wall Street veteran who has also argued for larger charge cuts — although he’s gone even additional by saying he sees a case for charge cuts bigger than a half-point.

A former economist on the Fed, he has deviated from another contenders in critiquing Powell for “operating politically from the left” and in advocating for cryptocurrency.

Sumerlin is a former George W. Bush adviser and pal of Bessent’s who said last month that he’s by no means met Trump. An advocate for aggressive charge cuts, he’s additionally pressured the significance of Fed independence. Any nomination, he stated, would “depend on [him and the White House] seeing eye-to-eye.”

• Former St. Louis Fed president James Bullard

Bullard left the St. Louis Fed final 12 months to function dean of the enterprise faculty at Purdue University. Like Sumerlin, he’s underscored the significance of being “set up for success” earlier than accepting any nomination, together with by agreeing to “keep inflation low” and “protect the independence of the institution.”

He stated this month that he would not have supported a half-point charge reduce: “I thought the Fed’s decision [to cut by a quarter-point] was a good one.”

• Former Fed Governor Larry Lindsey

Lindsey, one other former Bush adviser, has signaled a extra cautious strategy to chopping charges; he instructed Fox Business in August that the Fed must “keep in mind” how huge charge cuts can drive up Treasury yields.

Though he’s beforehand referred to as Trump “a total narcissist,” the 2 appeared to have made amends in 2020 when Trump tapped him to assist with fallout from the pandemic.