Fun With Numbers: Superior stats preview of Mississippi St at Texas A&M

Howdy and welcome again to Fun With Numbers, your favourite superior stats preview of Texas A&M Football and their upcoming opponents. Lets not waste any extra time with pleasantries and bounce proper into the coloured charts and jargon that carry all 15 of you again, week after week.

Oh you already know, simply your common SEC Game the place you lead the entire 4 quarters, outgain the opponent by practically 250 yards, had a win expectancy of 97%, and really simply might have misplaced it had the protection not continued to play effectively or had Hugh Freeze managed to seek out some semblance of an offensive sport plan.

Look, there’s lots to be displeased about from the Auburn sport, penalties (actual or in any other case) should get cleaned up and the offense nonetheless wants to seek out just a little consistency, however total this sport was nearer to being a blow out than it was a loss, and I believe it was much more encouraging to see how effectively the protection performed after we actually wanted them to.

The unbeaten Aggies get one other residence take a look at this week towards the Mississippi State Bulldogs, who’re 4-1 with a win over Arizona State and a loss final week to Tennessee in additional time. They’ve already doubled final season’s win complete, and have been using a formidable offense to a Top 30 SP+ rating. It’s their first time leaving the state of Mississippi this season (their solely different away sport was towards Southern Miss), and Vegas has the Ags as a 14.5 level residence favourite. The SP+ views it as a a lot nearer ballgame, predicting the Ags to win by 5, and the FEI predicts extra like an 11 level victory. Let’s take a better look.

Aggie Offense vs Bulldog Defense

The Aggie run sport has nonetheless had bother discovering its footing in 2025, however you’ll be able to really feel it beginning to come collectively now that groups have begun to respect the Aggie passing sport as a legit menace. They’re nonetheless struggling a bit to complete drives, however care for the ball effectively, and do job of hitting large performs on Passing Downs.

In Year 2 of Lebby (and beneath Coleman Hutzler as DC), the Mississippi State protection has made some large strides. Granted, they’ve solely been examined towards one Top 25 OSP+ staff (Tennessee at #5) and so they gave up 34 factors in regulation, however they’re nonetheless trying leagues higher than the 2024 squad. They’re fairly environment friendly, and although groups have had some success within the run sport and the Front 7 doesn’t create a lot Havoc, they make up for it with a secondary that does job of disrupting passes (thirty first in Passing Success Rate and 10 Interceptions on the yr) and stopping residence run performs on the bottom.

Aggie Defense vs Bulldog Offense

After a shaky begin, everyone seems to be type of hoping that the Auburn sport was a “switch-flipping” second for the Aggie Defense as convention play kicks off. They look like bettering towards the run, the go rush is discovering its groove, and there’s argument that that is the most effective the Aggies have checked out cornerback in an extended, very long time. They’re not good, however they’re beginning to play such as you’d count on from an Elko squad.

They’ll face one other RPO heavy offense, with large backs, velocity out huge, and a veteran QB in Shapen to prepared the ground. It doesn’t really feel TOO completely different from Auburn final week, however the Bulldogs have had much more success getting the run sport going with Booth and Bothwell (Not a regulation agency), and really hitting large performs via the air (notably one large one to stroll off Arizona State earlier within the season).

I ought to most likely be just a little extra involved about this sport than I’m. It definitely has all of the makings of a lure sport, however I additionally simply really feel like this staff may be very near placing all of it collectively on either side of the ball for a full 4 quarters. I don’t know if all of it occurs this weekend, however why not at a bought out, blacked out Kyle Field? The Aggies are going to should get higher at ending drives in the event that they wish to end out this season higher than final yr, and must proceed to forestall large runs from breaking free on the perimeters and into the secondary. With the Aggie Front 7 beginning to actually discover methods to carry stress, Mississippi State probably lacking at the very least one beginning sort out, and that already robust Sack Rate… I really feel like this could possibly be one other large week of placing the opposing QB within the dust.

My Prediction: I believe the Aggie protection is ready to capitalize off of final week’s momentum and do a greater job containing the run sport than Tennessee did, and I believe Reed and the receivers are the proper group to choose aside this 3-3-5 Bulldog protection. Aggies win 31-17, beware that half level hook when you’re betting this one.

Side be aware: Last week somebody requested what my document is on choosing these video games, so I went again and did some gentle analysis. It seems I’m 42-17 in choosing the winner of the Aggie video games however solely 26-30-3 when choosing towards the unfold. Do with that info what you’ll.

Thanks for coming again this week, we’ll see you subsequent time for the Florida sport.

Questions? Comments? Criticisms? You know the place to go away ‘em.