Fun With Numbers: Superior stats preview of Texas A&M at Arkansas

Howdy and welcome again to Fun With Numbers. We’re right here to speak about what superior stats say concerning the Fightin’ Texas Aggie Football squad—whereas remembering the 2 most enjoyable numbers of all.

Just your informal 17-point win over an SEC opponent—placing up extra factors than they’d given up all season—whereas holding the opposition to simply 17 whole factors, and doing all that whereas mainly sitting on the ball within the 4th quarter and daring them to make you give it up.

Your eyes didn’t deceive you: the Aggies performed this sport fairly equally to how a fellow Top-5 crew, Miami, did, by way of offensive and defensive success charges and explosiveness numbers—simply in case you have been having any doubts about how properly Texas A&M is enjoying.

They must maintain it, although, so let’s discuss concerning the subsequent one.

The first of a three-game highway stretch begins this week for the Aggies as they journey to Fayetteville to face an Arkansas squad that’s seeking to break a four-game shedding streak underneath interim head coach Bobby Petrino.

The Hogs managed to play Tennessee and Ole Miss shut this season, however obtained completely embarrassed at house by Notre Dame—which prompted the elimination of Sam Pittman from the pinnacle coach’s desk. Vegas has the Aggies as a 7.5-point favourite, SP+ predicts a 9-point Aggie win, and FEI thinks it’s extra like an 11-point margin. Let’s take a better look.

Aggie Offense vs Razorback Defense

I get it if you happen to’re an Aggie fan and also you’ve gone full dogstaringatcupcakes.gif listening to the information that LeVeon Moss goes to overlook vital time in a season when the Aggie offense is clicking very well. I’d say that Moss goes to be missed tremendously, his YAC and burst on the second stage, and his completeness as a again are why he’s the #1 man on a depth chart stuffed with proficient and skilled guys. But, at no level (even at its greatest) was the 2024 Aggie Offense working fairly like this one is. And I’d additionally say a lot of the late season losses from that season may very well be pinned on the protection. So till confirmed in any other case, let’s assume that this offense will look much like what it has for a lot of the season, shifting the ball successfully sufficient on the bottom, and environment friendly and explosive via the air.

The Arkansas protection will not be one which I’d predict to have the ability to gradual the Aggies down. They’ve given up 30 factors in each one in all their 4 losses and statistically talking they’re a lot nearer to UTSA’s protection than they’re any of the SEC defenses the Aggies have confronted so far. Now to be truthful to the Hogs, they’ve been on a streak of enjoying Top 15 OSP+ offenses, even the Memphis squad they confronted earlier this 12 months is rated seventh, however they’ve undoubtedly been the weak hyperlink on this squad.

Aggie Defense vs Razorback Offense

On the opposite facet of issues, Elko’s protection has actually come alongside in the previous few weeks. The points with explosive runs proceed to pop up every so often, they usually’re not significantly good at maintaining groups out of the tip zone in the event that they drive down the sector (124th in Points/Opportunity, 117th in Red Zone Scoring Defense). That stated, there are few defensive fronts enjoying in addition to this crew is correct now, and it’s in all probability the very best full effort we’ve seen from an Aggie secondary in a few years.

They’ll face what may very well be their hardest take a look at of the season, a Petrino referred to as offense led by Senior QB Taylen Green who elevates your entire offense together with his legs (second on the crew in dashing yards with 504). They’re simply actually environment friendly as a complete, and guys like O’Mega Blake (1.175 EPA/Catch, 18.79 Air Yards/Catch, All SEC Name) and Jalen Brown (.847 EPA/Catch, 27.22 Air Yards/Catch) present explosive threats downfield. It’s going to be an actual take a look at of how a lot progress this secondary has made and whether or not this Front 7 is able to sort out properly in area.

I’d be much more involved if this crew had carried out badly on the highway in South Bend, however the offense traveled properly and the protection has solely gotten higher since that Week 3 matchup.

Losing Moss hurts, however this crew remains to be greater than able to shifting the ball towards a very, actually unhealthy Razorback protection. From there, it’s a query of whether or not this protection can present up like Notre Dame’s did—or in the event that they’ll permit the Hogs to hold round like Ole Miss and Tennessee.

There’s some consolation in figuring out that despite the fact that Green has made progress, he nonetheless tends to set his personal crew again by operating into sacks and giving the ball away (9 sacks within the final three video games, three INTs, and two fumbles towards Tennessee). I like the boldness this Aggie protection is enjoying with proper now, and whereas I feel it is a robust offense to cease, Elko has confirmed to be actually adept at doing simply that.

My Prediction: It’s not a Notre Dame blowout. I feel it’s shut within the first half earlier than the Aggie protection shuts them down within the second and places it away, 34–20.

Thanks for coming again this week, we’ll see you subsequent week to speak concerning the Tigers (the LSU selection)

Questions? Comments? Criticisms? You know the place to go away ‘em.