Ten years of the Paris Agreement: what have we achieved?

In 2015, the Paris Agreement made historical past. 195 international locations got here collectively on the UN Climate Conference (CO21) and agreed to the world’s first binding worldwide settlement to restrict local weather change and adapt to its impacts.

Importantly, international locations agreed to work collectively to restrict world warming to effectively beneath 2°C, ideally to 1.5°C. Every nationwide authorities should now set up a transparent plan to succeed in web zero emissions with recurrently up to date targets to chop local weather air pollution. [link to Australian target page]

As governments converge as soon as extra on the UN Climate Conference, this time, COP30 in Belém, Brazil, some are asking what have we achieved to fight local weather change? 

The previous three years have been the hottest on record, local weather disasters have slammed each continent this yr. And local weather air pollution from coal, oil and fuel continues to rise.  

However, we now have additionally made substantial progress and damaged numerous information within the world shift to wash vitality.

10 years after Paris, it’s value taking inventory of simply how a lot the world has achieved, regardless of the chances.  

Pollution from coal, oil and fuel continues to rise, however far more slowly

In 2023, the worldwide group agreed to transition away from fossil fuels, lastly formally acknowledging the contribution of coal, oil and fuel to world warming.

This settlement was labelled the “beginning of the end” for fossil fuels globally. While we nonetheless have an extended solution to go, the worldwide vitality combine is shifting away from fossil fuels:

• Global emissions are slowing: the latest data shows that we’re burning extra fossil fuels than ever and emissions proceed to climb, however the rate of growth has dropped from 2% per yr to 0.6% per yr.
• The world’s largest polluter’s emissions have peaked: China’s emissions are already peaking, 5 years forward of earlier projections.
• Countries are phasing out coal: this yr, Ireland turned the eighth country to phase out coal generation because the Paris Agreement was signed. Many extra have dedicated to changing into coal-free over the approaching years, together with nearly the entire European Union.
• More international locations are committing to get off coal, oil and fuel: Pacific Island Nations are main a diplomatic marketing campaign for a worldwide part out of coal, oil and fuel, calling for a Fossil Fuel Non-Proliferation Treaty. In addition, 62 international locations led by the UK and Canada have pledged to part out unabated coal technology utterly via the Powering Past Coal Alliance.

Clean vitality is remodeling the world

The world vitality transformation is gathering velocity: low-emissions vitality sources (together with wind, photo voltaic, hydropower and nuclear) now generate more than 40% of the world’s electrical energy, in comparison with 33% in 2015. Clean vitality is smashing information:

• 2025 noticed a major milestone: within the first six months of 2025 the world generated more power from solar and wind than from coal.
• Record-breaking renewable rollout: Global renewable electrical energy technology is expected to nearly double by 2030 – sufficient new renewable technology to fulfill the mixed energy demand of China and the US.
• Solar is booming: ​​It took eight years for the world’s photo voltaic capability to go from 100 TWh to 1,000 TWh, then simply three years to double to 2,000 TWh. Solar costs have dropped 66% previously decade, changing into the cheapest form of power in history.
• Investment in clear vitality has elevated 10x: Investment in clear vitality has grown from round US$230 billion in 2013, to $2.2 trillion in 2025 (equal to AU $3.4 trillion – twice as a lot as world funding in coal, oil and fuel).
• The world’s largest polluter, China, is remodeling into clear vitality juggernaut.
• Cleaning up transport: One in five cars offered worldwide is now electrical, in comparison with just 1% in 2015.

Read extra in our report Power Shift: The US, China and the Race to Net Zero

Net zero is the worldwide minimal

When the Paris Agreement was signed in 2015 no international locations had formal web zero targets. Now, 83% of the worldwide economic system has a web zero goal. Analysis shows that local weather targets have gotten extra strong over time, protecting extra sectors and gases. The majority of nations have targets to extend renewable technology.

The Paris Agreement goals to succeed in peak world greenhouse fuel emissions as quickly as doable, reaching web zero by the second half of this century. If all international locations observe via on their commitments, world emissions are expected to peak by 2030. However, to restrict world heating to 1.5°C with out overshoot, world local weather air pollution needed to peak this year, on the newest, and fall by 43% on 2019 ranges by 2030. 

Global temperature is rising, and so are the impacts

We are already residing in a warmer and extra harmful world, fuelled by local weather air pollution from coal, oil and fuel. Today we’re at 1.3°C of worldwide warming, and the previous three years have been the hottest on record. 

In 2015, the world was on a catastrophic path to a mean world temperature improve of 4°C by the tip of this century. Now, in keeping with the latest official data, we’re monitoring in the direction of 2.3 – 2.5°C, if international locations attain their targets. 

This is a extra harmful future, and nonetheless falls far brief of what’s wanted. Global warming of 1.5°C is taken into account the higher restrict of what susceptible communities, coral reefs, and lots of ecosystems can stand up to. Science is evident that crossing the 1.5°C threshold will increase the danger of triggering irreversible and cascading local weather impacts. Transformative motion, delivered urgently, is required to restrict how a lot and for the way lengthy we overshoot this threshold, and to deliver temperatures again all the way down to safer ranges.

The solely approach to take action is by slicing air pollution from coal, oil and fuel additional and sooner than we’re at this time, in all of the locations we are able to achieve this.

Read extra about our evaluation of Australia’s goal and temperature rise eventualities

With virtually half the world’s population already susceptible to the results of local weather change, world work to adapt, construct resilience and cope with loss and injury attributable to climate-driven disasters is crucial.  The Paris Agreement set a Global Goal on Adaptation to extend international locations’ efforts to organize for and handle the impacts of local weather disasters. In 2023 international locations agreed to an adaptation framework, and a key focus of COP30 in Belém is to ascertain indicators to measure this progress.

The worldwide group has additionally established a brand new Loss and Damage fund, and as of June this year, 27 international locations had pledged greater than AU$1.2 billion. This represents a small fraction of the estimated financial prices of local weather change-induced loss and injury in growing international locations of as much as $AU800 billion in 2030, rising to up to 2.6 trillion by 2050.

Australia makes up simply 0.3% of the worldwide inhabitants, however we contribute way over our fair proportion of local weather air pollution: we’re the world’s tenth largest polluter on a per individual foundation, and one of many largest fossil gas exporters. With the proper insurance policies, Australia can contribute to world objectives whereas rising our personal economic system and creating expert jobs. 

Powering previous our local weather targets

Under the Paris Agreement, the Albanese Government has pledged to chop local weather air pollution 43% by 2030, 62%-70% beneath 2005 ranges by 2035 and attain web zero by 2050. Australia’s just lately introduced 2035 local weather goal is weaker than what the science says is critical to contribute to avoiding the worst local weather impacts, and quite a few unbiased analyses have proven is feasible (no less than 75%). To maintain Australians safer from worsening local weather hurt, and unlock Australia’s financial alternative, the Australian Government should set our goal in regulation and put in place insurance policies to fulfill a 70% discount, and energy previous it. 

Phasing out fossil fuels

We should additionally cope with our polluting fossil gas exports. The first step is to finish new and expanded fossil gas tasks. The Albanese Government has a chance to attain this via its setting regulation reforms, however has up to now dominated out any significant consideration of local weather impacts within the laws. While there’s a lengthy solution to go for these reforms to be credible, there may be nonetheless a chance for the Government and all events within the Senate to strengthen the legal guidelines and higher shield our surroundings from local weather hurt.

Growing inexperienced export industries

Australia additionally has a major alternative within the world shift to renewables. By making use of our plentiful renewable sources and demanding minerals we are able to assist world decarbonisation whereas enhance our personal economic system and create expert jobs in future-focused export industries. Australia’s inexperienced export alternative might create over 400,000 jobs by 2040, growing the economy by $100 billion per year.