2025 NFL Thanksgiving schedule, picks, odds, accidents

The Week 13 schedule for the 2025 NFL season begins with an awesome slate of Thanksgiving Day matchups, and we’ve you lined for what needs to be an thrilling vacation. According to ESPN Research, the common over/underneath level whole of 51.2 is the very best for Thanksgiving video games over the previous 40 seasons. Buckle up.

Ahead of the three matchups, our NFL Nation reporters take you inside every locker room with key storylines and a glance again at every crew’s historical past enjoying on Thanksgiving. ESPN Research gives optimistic stats for all six groups, together with betting nuggets to know. Plus, analytics author Seth Walder makes daring predictions, whereas fantasy analyst Eric Moody shares fantasy soccer intel. We even have Football Power Index (FPI) sport projections, and three analysts — Pamela Maldonado, Moody and Walder — give us closing rating picks for the three video games.

Let’s begin with the Packers and Lions, who will meet on Turkey Day for an NFL-record twenty third time.

Jump to a matchup:
GB-DET | KC-DAL | CIN-BAL

1 p.m. ET | Fox | ESPN BET: DET -2.5 (48.5 O/U)

What we’re listening to on the Packers: They are underdogs for the primary time this season. They are the one crew within the NFL that has been favored in every of their video games heading into Week 13. The Packers have already gained extra division video games (two) than they did all of final season, after they had been swept by the Lions and Vikings and break up with the Bears. — Rob Demovsky

What we’re listening to on the Lions: Detroit will likely be trying to get payback after its season-opening 27-13 loss at Lambeau Field. Coach Dan Campbell and his crew are wanting ahead to a different shot at going through their NFC North division rivals on Turkey Day, the place the Lions lead the all-time sequence versus Green Bay 12-9-1. “We took a loss in Week 1, so it’s a divisional game,” edge rusher Aidan Hutchinson stated. “This is as big as any game we’ll play in the regular season.” — Eric Woodyard

Stat the Packers are grateful for: Their protection has generated stress 35% of the time this season, which is the sixth-highest fee within the league. That will likely be particularly useful towards Lions quarterback Jared Goff, whose QBR has dropped by 69 factors when he has confronted stress this season (most within the NFL).

Stat the Lions are grateful for: Running again Jahmyr Gibbs has been unstoppable since coming into the NFL in 2023, and he has the possibility to affix uncommon firm Thursday. With one landing, Gibbs would turn out to be the fifth participant in NFL historical past to document 45 touchdowns (of any sort) inside his first three NFL seasons. The different 4 are all Hall of Famers (Barry Sanders, Eric Dickerson, Gale Sayers and Earl Campbell). — ESPN Research

Bold prediction: Hutchinson will likely be held to 2 or fewer pass-rush wins. He has only a 13% move rush win fee at edge this season — his stress tends to return later within the play — and the Packers’ two offensive tackles each rank within the prime 15 in move block win fee on the place. — Walder

Injuries: Packers | Lions

Fantasy nugget: Packers large receiver Christian Watson is in an awesome spot towards the Lions. He has quietly turn out to be the most secure choice in a Packers offense that ranks close to the underside of the league in move makes an attempt, clearing 45 receiving yards in each sport since coming back from damage and seeing at the least 4 targets every week. Detroit has additionally allowed the ninth-most fantasy factors per sport to large receivers. See Week 13 rankings. — Moody

Betting nugget: The Lions are 0-3 outright and towards the unfold when the road is between +3 and -3 this season. The Packers are 1-4 ATS on the street this season, and their previous 4 street video games have gone over the overall. Read extra. — ESPN Research

Maldonado’s choose: Lions 34, Packers 24
Moody’s choose: Lions 30, Packers 27
Walder’s choose: Packers 23, Lions 17
FPI prediction: DET, 54% (by a median of 1.5 factors)

Thanksgiving sport reminiscence for the Packers: Upsetting the Lions in 2023. With an apology to historical past — the 1962 sport towards the Lions could be probably the most vital although it was the Packers’ solely loss in a championship season — recency bias offers the nod to this sport. The Packers had been 8.5-point underdogs but pulled off a 29-22 win. It was a part of a closing stretch by which the Packers went 6-2 to make the playoffs after beginning 3-6. — Demovsky

Thanksgiving sport reminiscence for the Lions: Lions prime Bears 23-20 in 2024. After three straight Thanksgiving losses as coach of the Lions, Campbell lastly ended the crew’s seven-year vacation drought final season. With the win, the 11-1 Lions additionally acquired off to their finest begin in franchise historical past. For quarterback Goff, it was a “bucket list” second, as he loved a turkey leg following 221 passing yards and two landing passes. — Woodyard

Extra stuffing: Inside Hutchinson’s contract extension … Do Packers have 1-2 punch? … Gibbs has 264 yards in Lions’ OT victory … Parsons logs fifth straight 10-sack season

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4:30 p.m. ET | CBS/Paramount+ | ESPN BET: KC -3 (52.5 O/U)

What we’re listening to on the Chiefs: The Chiefs may’ve saved their season — and their possibilities of reaching the postseason — of their comeback win over the Colts. Quarterback Patrick Mahomes is aware of the Chiefs’ efforts Sunday will likely be wasted if they can not again it up in Dallas. “Now we just have to build off that momentum,” Mahomes stated. “We’re playing a good team in the Cowboys. They can score some points and they have a lot of great players. It’s about rebounding fast. It’s going to be a lot of fun going to Dallas and getting to play on Thanksgiving.” — Nate Taylor

What we’re listening to on the Cowboys: The Cowboys’ protection has put up its finest two efforts of the season within the back-to-back wins over the Raiders and Eagles. Now, they get the problem of Mahomes. While some think about the Chiefs’ offense to be struggling, they’re nonetheless within the prime 10 in yards and passing. “Anytime you go against Patrick Mahomes, you’ve got to have all your T’s crossed and I’s dotted,” defensive sort out Kenny Clark stated. “That boy, he’s elite. You can’t let him out of the pocket and improvise, because that’s where he’s at his best.” — Todd Archer

Stat the Chiefs are grateful for: They simply broke their streak of not successful one-score video games this season, defeating the Colts by a discipline objective in time beyond regulation regardless of trailing by 11 within the fourth quarter. Kansas City was 0-5 in one-score video games this season after going an NFL-record 12-0 in them in 2024, together with the playoffs. — ESPN Research

Stat the Cowboys are grateful for: Their offense has often been at its finest when establishing the run and understanding of play-action. Quarterback Dak Prescott has the most effective QBR on play-action snaps this season, and he is tied with the Rams’ Matthew Stafford for probably the most landing passes (13) on that play sort. This Chiefs’ protection has allowed the worst completion fee (82%) and third-most yards per try (9.9) on play-action. — ESPN Research

Bold prediction: Mahomes will document a 90-plus QBR for the primary time this season. The Chiefs have been the most effective offense within the league versus zone protection (0.27 EPA per play, a lot increased than their 0.10 towards man), and the Cowboys run zone 72% of the time (second most within the NFL). — Walder

Injuries: Chiefs | Cowboys

Fantasy nugget: The Chiefs ought to lean on Mahomes and their move catchers towards a Cowboys protection that has allowed the second-most fantasy factors per sport to large receivers this season. This clearly helps Rashee Rice, however managers in a bind must also think about Xavier Worthy, who has seen at the least seven targets in three of his previous 4 video games regardless of averaging simply 7.9 fantasy factors throughout that stretch. See Week 13 rankings. — Moody

Betting nugget: The Cowboys are 4-1 towards the unfold as underdogs this season, whereas the Chiefs are 1-4 ATS on the street (0-3 ATS of their previous three). Read extra. — ESPN Research

Maldonado’s choose: Chiefs 20, Cowboys 13
Moody’s choose: Chiefs 27, Cowboys 23
Walder’s choose: Chiefs 36, Cowboys 28
FPI prediction: KC, 63.6% (by a median of 5.1 factors)

Thanksgiving sport reminiscence for the Chiefs: Running again Marcus Allen passes Walter Payton in 1996. The Chiefs do not have many fond reminiscences on Thanksgiving, however Allen handed fellow Hall of Famer Walter Payton on the all-time dashing touchdowns listing in Detroit. Allen recorded his 111th rating on a 1-yard dive into the top zone within the first quarter. His efficiency, together with 73 dashing yards and two touchdowns, helped the Chiefs rally for a 28-24 comeback victory over the Lions. — Taylor

Thanksgiving sport reminiscence for the Cowboys: Backup quarterback Clint Longley leads Cowboys to win over Washington in 1974. Longley’s comeback got here out of nowhere. With Roger Staubach knocked out within the third quarter, the Cowboys trailed 23-17 with lower than 30 seconds to play when Longley, generally known as the “Mad Bomber,” hit Drew Pearson for a 50-yard landing to defeat their rivals. — Archer

Extra stuffing: Pacheco focusing on return vs. Cowboys … Guyton (ankle) probably out vs. Chiefs … Did Cowboys’ win set the desk for a playoff run? … Jones captains late defensive cost … How Prescott’s initiative saved a Cowboys exec

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8:20 p.m. ET | NBC/Peacock | ESPN BET: BAL -7 (52.5 O/U)

What we’re listening to on the Bengals: Turnover margin is important to the crew’s success in AFC North play. Dating again to 2021, the Bengals are 13-14 in division play. Cincinnati has a plus-12 turnover margin in wins in comparison with minus-13 in losses. The identical precept holds true for the Ravens and Steelers, too. But it will likely be particularly vital in stopping Baltimore. “Whoever takes the ball away is going to win,” security Geno Stone stated. — Ben Baby

What we’re listening to on the Ravens: Running again Derrick Henry wants 18 dashing yards to move Jim Brown for eleventh place on the NFL all-time dashing listing. He goes towards a Bengals protection that’s permitting 156 yards dashing per sport, which is the second worst within the league. “How many game balls can you give Derrick?,” coach John Harbaugh stated. “Maybe we’ll wait until he cracks the top 10, I don’t know. But he’s going to get more yards.” In his previous 5 video games towards Cincinnati, Henry averaged 86.4 dashing yards per sport and scored 4 touchdowns. — Jamison Hensley

Stat the Bengals are grateful for: Running again Chase Brown recorded his fifth straight sport with over 100 scrimmage yards towards the Patriots final week. That’s at the moment the longest energetic streak within the NFL and a welcome signal after he did not cross that mark within the first six video games of the season.

Stat the Ravens are grateful for: Quarterback Lamar Jackson could be 1-2 in prime-time video games this season (gained in Week 9 on the Dolphins), however he has a 21-7 document in such video games for his profession. Since the 1970 AFL/NFL merger, the one quarterback with a greater document in prime time is Hall of Famer Steve Young (minimal of 15 begins). — ESPN Research

Bold prediction: Ravens tight finish Mark Andrews will document at the least 50 receiving yards for simply the second time this season. Twenty-seven p.c of targets towards the Bengals’ protection have gone to opposing tight ends, the very best fee within the league. — Walder

Injuries: Bengals | Ravens

Fantasy nugget: The Bengals’ protection has been a fantasy goldmine for opponents all season. This is a dream matchup for managers with Jackson, Henry and Andrews, as Cincinnati permits the second-most fantasy factors per sport to quarterbacks, probably the most to working backs and probably the most to tight ends. See Week 13 rankings. — Moody

Betting nugget: Five straight conferences between these groups have gone over the overall. Overs are 20-8 in Ravens video games since final season, the very best fee within the NFL (7-4 this season). Read extra. — ESPN Research

Maldonado’s choose: Ravens 30, Bengals 23
Moody’s choose: Ravens 31, Bengals 28
Walder’s choose: Ravens 30, Bengals 23
FPI prediction: BAL, 68% (by a median of seven.2 factors)

Thanksgiving sport reminiscence for the Bengals: Their solely look in 2010. The Bengals are one in every of 4 groups with only one Thanksgiving sport of their franchise historical past. That sport on the Jets, a 26-10 loss, was stuffed with eventual Hall of Famers (Terrell Owens, LaDainian Tomlinson, Darrelle Revis and Jason Taylor). — Baby

Thanksgiving sport reminiscence for the Ravens: The sideline sidestep between Jacoby Jones and Mike Tomlin in 2013. The Ravens play on Thanksgiving for the primary time since they beat the Steelers 22-20 by overcoming some of the controversial performs in league historical past. With the Ravens main 13-7 within the third quarter, Jones was working again a kickoff when he was slowed down by Tomlin, who stood in a restricted space that separates the sideline from the enjoying discipline, along with his again turned to the motion and his proper foot squarely within the discipline of play. Jones, who was 38 yards from the top zone, was tackled from behind. Tomlin was later fined $100,000 by the NFL. “It’s just one of those unfortunate moments of life,” Tomlin stated 5 years in the past. “I was watching the jumbotron and lost track of where I was. Such is life.” — Hensley

Extra stuffing: Jackson misses walk-through with toe damage … Chase sorry for spitting: ‘What I did was incorrect’ … Bengals coach anticipates Burrow will play Thursday