Enjoyable With Meaningless Splits: Half Version

“I will start with the easy answer:” wrote Jeff Zimmerman again in 2014. The subsequent half was bolded: “No, first and second half stats are not as important as the entire season for pitchers and hitters.” Jeff was speaking about fantasy baseball, and whether or not it’s best to think about a very sturdy or weak second half extra related to a participant’s future efficiency, however the lesson was clear. Overall stats inform you much more a few participant than half a season of stats.

The similar lesson is true over the course of a profession. Since 1933, the 12 months of the primary All-Star Game, Stathead says that 2,146 gamers have made not less than 900 profession plate appearances in each the primary half and the second half. Just underneath 93% of these gamers have a second half OPS that’s inside 10% of their first half OPS. (We’re utilizing percentages right here slightly than uncooked factors with the intention to create a stage taking part in subject for gamers of various talent ranges. I calculated them by subtracting every participant’s first half OPS from their second half OPS, then dividing the distinction by their first half OPS.) Only 15 gamers – once more, that’s 15 gamers out of a pattern of two,146 – noticed their second half OPS differ from their first half OPS by greater than 20%.

All of this is smart. There’s no purpose {that a} batter ought to be constantly higher originally or finish of the season. As Eno Sarris as soon as reminded us, seasons themselves are arbitrary endpoints. Most of the 15 outliers I discussed within the earlier paragraph are the outcomes of brief, noisy samples, both as a result of that they had brief careers or they’re nonetheless within the early phases of their profession proper now. The longer your profession, the extra probably that your true expertise stage will shine by means of, whatever the date on the calendar.

These days, there’s even much less purpose for gamers to be sizzling or sluggish starters. Once upon a time, gamers needed to take offseason jobs on the slaughterhouse again house in Fargo to make ends meet, and Whitey Ford was telling anybody who would pay attention that the key to trying such as you stored in form over the winter was getting a good suntan. Nowadays, all people trains year-round and works with skilled trainers and nutritionists. Nobody’s ever that distant from taking part in form originally of the 12 months, and no one’s ever had higher in-season upkeep. Players spend their offseasons within the gymnasium and the cages, and so they spend the common season ingesting customized restoration smoothies and resting in nap pods.

For instance, Elly De La Cruz has big splits, with a 128 wRC+ within the first half and an 84 wRC+ within the second half. However, he’s solely performed three seasons. In 2023, he had an electrical debut, then collapsed amid widespread reports of fatigue. In 2025, he was taking part in by means of an damage and the demise of his sister within the second half. It’s doable that De La Cruz will proceed to be a sizzling starter and sluggish finisher. He performs the sport at 1,000,000 miles an hour, taking the additional base, stealing, laying out. Maybe he’ll all the time spend the second half a bit extra banged up than the typical participant. For now, although, it’s approach too early to say. He seems primed to have a protracted profession, and sooner or later issues will in all probability steadiness out. (As for whether or not there’s a correlation between basestealing and second half decline, I’d word that Rickey Henderson had higher first half numbers, however Lou Brock and Tim Raines have been higher within the second half. Even Cal Ripken Jr., who put his physique by means of extra punishment than simply about anybody, solely noticed his OPS drop by 25 factors within the second half.)

I doubt I’m telling you something you don’t know, however right here’s a scatter plot that exhibits what we’re speaking about. The extra you play, the much less probably you’re to have massive splits. (The scatter plot exhibits absolutely the worth of the distinction, ignoring whether or not a participant was higher or worse within the first half.)

In order to separate your self from the massive proper triangle of ordinary deviations, it’s a must to play lengthy sufficient to rack up 10,000 plate appearances, and the overwhelming majority of the gamers who do which might be Hall of Famers. It’s actually doable that some gamers are sluggish starters and a few gamers simply are likely to get banged up within the second half, however the pattern measurement wanted to show it definitively is simply too massive. So that is all quite a lot of nonsense. Just to hammer that house, I’d like to finish by speaking about two of the widest dots on that scatterplot.

See that pink dot all the best way out at 30%? That’s Michael Harris II, who has a profession wRC+ of 80 within the first half and 134 within the second half. It’s an incredibly big disparity. In the primary half, Harris is barely playable. In the second, he’s one of many higher hitters in baseball. Obviously, we’re speaking a few small pattern right here. Harris has performed simply 4 seasons, and the largest statistical distinction between his first and second half numbers is a 60-point bounce in BABIP. Still, he’s on his personal on the market. I’d wager that issues will even out some over the course of his profession, however after this begin, he’s nearly actually going to finish up with a reasonably large break up each time he retires. And if that is simply what he does yearly, I can’t wait to learn the 2026 model of the article explaining how he turned things around midway by means of the 12 months.

Julio Rodríguez is that different pink dot approach out towards the suitable. He’s not fairly as excessive as Harris – nobody is as excessive as Harris! Rodríguez has additionally by no means been unhealthy on the plate, even within the first half. He has a profession wRC+ of 114 within the first half and 154 within the second half. Most gamers could be lots pleased with a 114 wRC+ at any level within the season, however a distinction of 40 factors remains to be very excessive. It’s even weirder while you word that every one 4 of his IL stints have come throughout the second half slightly than the primary. Maybe he’s only a sluggish starter, too. Maybe each of those guys ought to be ramping up early to keep away from their dreaded sluggish begins. Right? Wrong.

Harris and Rodríguez begin out sizzling yearly! We have spring coaching numbers going again to 2006, and in the event you set a minimal of 60 plate appearances, you get a pattern of two,482 gamers. Rodríguez’s 174 wRC+ is the Thirteenth-best mark within the final 20 years! Harris isn’t proper on the high of the leaderboard, however he has a profession wRC+ of 136, higher than his second half numbers. The curler coaster is even wilder for Harris, who can be simply 6-for-35 within the postseason for a paltry 24 wRC+. Just to put all of it out plainly:

Spring Training: He’s nice.
First Half: He’s horrible.
Second Half: He’s nice.
Postseason: He’s depressing.

I advised you it was nonsense.