Air Journey Demand Will Extra Than Double by 2050

Translation: Demanda por viagens aéreas mais que dobrará até 2050 (pdf)

Geneva – The International Air Transport Association (IATA) launched its Long‑Term Demand Projections (LTDP) for air journey, displaying that international air passenger demand is predicted to greater than double by 2050.

• Under the mid‑vary state of affairs, demand is forecast to succeed in 20.8 trillion income passenger kilometers (RPKs), primarily based on a compound annual development fee (CAGR) of three.1% (2024-2050) from the 9 trillion RPKs seen in 2024.
• A better development state of affairs would see a 3.3% CAGR with passenger demand reaching 21.9 trillion RPKs in 2050. A decrease development state of affairs would see 2.9% CAGR with passenger demand reaching 19.5 trillion RPKs by 2050.
• The completely different situations are pushed by different modeling of long-term financial development, populations, aviation gas worth developments, the worldwide vitality transition, and air transport supply-side capability growth.

“The outlook for air travel is positive. People want to travel and, under all our modeled scenarios, the demand to fly is expected to more than double by mid-century. That is good news for global economic and social development because aviation growth will catalyze opportunities, including jobs, around the world. Our Long-Term Demand report gives governments, industry, and energy suppliers a robust basis for long‑term planning. It underscores the need for policy frameworks to support key success enablers such as efficient infrastructure development, market access facilitation, regulatory harmonization, and an effective clean energy transition,” mentioned Willie Walsh, IATA’s Director General.

Regional Outlook: Growth Concentrated in Emerging Markets

 

The tempo of development will probably be uneven throughout areas, reflecting variations in demographics, market maturity, financial growth, and connectivity potential. Under the mid‑vary state of affairs, Asia‑Pacific and Africa are anticipated to be the quickest‑rising areas over 2024-2050, with CAGRs of three.8% and three.6% respectively. Europe and North America are projected to develop extra slowly, at 2.5% and a couple of.8%.

The LTDP identifies the quickest‑rising markets as intra‑Africa (4.9%), Africa–Asia‑Pacific (4.5%), Asia‑Pacific–Middle East (3.9%), intra‑Asia‑Pacific (3.9%), and Africa–North America (3.8%), highlighting the significance of funding in aviation infrastructure and regulatory frameworks in growing areas. By distinction, a number of Europe‑centered markets are among the many slowest rising.

Long Term Global Trends

 

Two long-term developments recognized within the report are price noting:

• The LTDP confirms that the COVID‑19 pandemic triggered a everlasting structural shift in international aviation demand. Unlike earlier crises, the unprecedented collapse in RPK has created a persistent hole that isn’t anticipated to converge again to the pre-pandemic GDP-aligned development by 2050, even underneath the excessive‑development state of affairs.
• While lengthy‑time period demand stays strong, the expansion fee is moderating step by step. Historical evaluation reveals that common annual development slowed from 6.1% CAGR between 1972 and 1998, to 4.5% CAGR between 1998 and 2024. The central state of affairs for 2024-2050 initiatives an additional slowing to three.1% CAGR. This gradual moderation displays market maturity somewhat than weakening demand, as absolute passenger numbers proceed to rise considerably.

Factors Impacting on the Model

 

IATA’s proprietary mannequin utilized by the LTDP is predicated on a complete international econometric mannequin constructed on the perfect obtainable knowledge from worldwide establishments and IATA’s personal DDS demand database. The distinctive dataset compiled for this work includes greater than half 1,000,000 observations throughout round 41,000 directional nation pairs over 14 years from 2011 to 2024. The LTDP mannequin incorporates inhabitants, employment, flight frequencies, and plane measurement on the nation stage. The most important demand driver is actual GDP (Gross Domestic Product) per capita, adjusted for PPP (Purchasing Power Parity). Long-term country-specific financial projections are obtained from the publicly obtainable OECD international long-run financial situations. The LTDP situations are additionally linked to situations for a way the evolution of the worldwide vitality transition could affect long-term demand. The mannequin’s projection efficiency has been validated in opposition to historic knowledge and reveals a median prediction accuracy of 98% on the trade stage.

> Full report: IATA Long-Term Air Transport Passenger Demand Projections (pdf)

 

For extra info, please contact:

Corporate Communications

Tel: +41 22 770 2967

Email: corpcomms@iata.org