Let’s predict: Will Xbox return to “exclusive” video games? Will Halo, Gears, and so on. proceed to hit PlayStation?

It’s the most important Xbox dialog of the now: will Xbox get unique video games once more?

One of essentially the most controversial, if not the most controversial subjects surrounding Xbox pertains to this and this alone: unique content material, particularly video games.

A few years in the past by way of a really dry business-style presentation, Xbox introduced that it’s bringing “four” of its unique video games to PlayStation. Xbox CEO Phil Spencer mentioned that it will solely be these 4, particularly saying “it’s not Indiana Jones” in feedback that are actually infamous: just a few months later, it very a lot was Indiana Jones.

After Forza Horizon absolutely blew up on PlayStation, making Microsoft (and Sony …) absurd amounts of money, the writing was essentially on the wall. Xbox will no longer have exclusive games. I wrote two years ago that, as part of Xbox’s ill-fated “Project Latitude,” any exclusive Xbox game moving forward would be incidental at best. A result of budget constraints, dev kit access, or pipeline issues. In essence, every single Xbox game would eventually come to PlayStation, and some easy ports to Nintendo Switch 2 as well.

But like new CEO Asha Sharma said, “the plan is the plan until it’s not the plan,” and confirmed repeatedly over the last few weeks that exclusive games for Xbox are being re-evaluated.

Selling Xbox’s soul for (a ton of) money

Whether Xbox likes it or not, eventually it’s going to have to contend with the fact the vast majority of Xbox owners want exclusive content on their box.

A recent poll I conducted on Windows Central and in other places revealed that only 12% of our readers think Xbox shouldn’t have any form of exclusivity. At the very least, you want Xbox to have some form of exclusive content, whether timed or otherwise. Plenty want full exclusivity, too.

The problem is, for Microsoft, the sentiment hasn’t always translated into real-world sales data.

Previous CEO Phil Spencer said in an interview that Starfield, no matter how good it might’ve been, wouldn’t have sold Xbox consoles in meaningful amounts. The sentiment points to a worrying trend across console gaming in general: it isn’t growing. That’s the cold, hard facts.

Various analytics firms from Circana to Ampere show that youngsters simply aren’t buying any console, letalone Xbox. Those that don’t become console gamers in their youth are far less likely to become console gamers in adulthood too.

From Circana’s Checkout service: $100+ income households now account for 43% of US video game hardware purchases, up from 36% just a few years ago.
18–24-year-olds accounted for only 3% VG hardware purchases during the 12-months ending July 2025, down from 10% during the 12 months ending July 2022.

— @matpiscatella.bsky.social (@matpiscatella.bsky.social.bsky.social) 2026-04-26T16:56:43.878Z

Console gaming has turn out to be the realm of the unc to make use of the vernacular du jour. If you are studying this, almost definitely you are in your mid-thirties or older.

Kids immediately grew up with iPad and Roblox, and therein lies their gaming expectations typically talking. They additionally spend extra time on TikTok and different addictive social media algorithms than older generations, though our consideration is split by this more and more as properly.

All up mixed console gross sales between the massive three are lagging behind the earlier technology owing to a wide range of elements. Increased prices are an element. The rise of free-to-play is an element. The social-heavy nature of dual-monitor PC gaming is an element too.

Consoles basically fell behind in a wide range of methods, however we’re not right here to debate the causes of that proper now. The level is that in a stagnant, and even shrinking complete person base, how can Xbox (and others frankly) keep forward of inflation? Costs are rising for platform holders too, and discovering new cash is driving each Xbox and PlayStation to discover different pastures. PlayStation fairly unprecedently put Helldivers 2 onto Xbox as properly final 12 months, so it is hardly as if Xbox’s conduct exists in a vacuum.

Despite the difficulties, Xbox’s Asha Sharma has arrange some fairly sturdy expectations

I critically doubt Asha Sharma and Matt Booty would be teasing the return of exclusives if there wasn’t already some sort of plan in place.

Personally, I think that we will see some form of exclusivity return, but it may be pretty limited. Gears of War: Reloaded, for example, very barely moved the needle when it launched on PlayStation last year. The anaemic sales really begs the question: is the juice worth the squeeze?

It’s difficult to measure brand damage in a spreadsheet, and Microsoft is a company that is well entrenched in telemetry. I call this phenomenon spreadsheetification — if it can’t be measured in a spreadsheet, Microsoft’s decision making seems to be paralyzed. This is why they so often fall afoul of negative sentiment and lack a human touch. It’s hardly unique to Microsoft. Corporate inertia is a real thing, and it’s what helps smaller, more nimble firms like Discord appear out of nowhere and disrupt entire markets.

Microsoft and Xbox can no longer afford to be this ignorant. The blowback to their strategy around Xbox has been so utterly loud that it can no longer be ignored here. Hence why we’ve already seen a huge reversal on Xbox Game Pass Ultimate’s 50% price hike. When is the last time you saw a subscription service actually get cheaper?

Forza Horizon will continue to sell millions when it hits PlayStation. But, will Gears of War and Halo? Obviously, we’re not talking Minecraft or Call of Duty here, which have PlayStation’s install base fully factored into its business model. The ship has well and truly sailed here (although some Xbox co-marketing wouldn’t hurt …). We’re not talking about whether or not Xbox will ditch PC either … Xbox and Microsoft obviously have a vested interest in keeping Windows 11 as the default PC gaming platform.

But what if Elder Scrolls 6 and Fallout 5 were Xbox console-exclusive down the line? I feel like a persistent cadence of high-quality exclusives absolutely would sell Xbox hardware. You’re going to need stuff like that for Xbox Helix, which many predict will be disproportionately expensive for a video game console.

And of the “smaller” franchises. The immeasurable brand damage that putting Xbox icons like Master Chief and Marcus Fenix onto PlayStation really doesn’t feel like it’s worth it to me. Yes, they will sell some copies, but is it really worth making your users feel abandoned in the process? Gears of War and Halo have never really had an audience on PlayStation until Microsoft CFO Amy Hood forced Xbox to chase an insane 30% profit target.

But there’s the other argument: if Xbox isn’t finding new users from the Gen-Z and Alpha cohorts due to Roblox, etc., then it needs to find new money elsewhere, i.e. on PlayStation. But I find that to be reductive. If there’s an industry problem all up with console, I don’t see why putting games on PlayStation is doing anything other than accelerating the identified problem. Kids don’t want to play Halo or Gears, and their parents don’t want to necessarily buy a console for it either.

The immeasurable brand damage that putting Xbox icons like Master Chief and Marcus Fenix onto PlayStation really doesn’t feel like it’s worth it.

Microsoft didn’t even wait five minutes to see if cloud gaming could help bridge the gap before it started chasing PlayStation’s audience. It has done little to no marketing of this platform, nor has it bothered really marketing its own consoles either. Meeting people where they are is all well and good, but what good is reinforcing PlayStation’s position if the entire market is stagnant to shrinking anyway?

Microsoft should be fighting for those users that potentially remain in the segment with one arm, and exploring what’s next for Gen-Z and Gen-Alpha with the other, in my view. But again, it’s a real dilemma ultimately. Microsoft has pushed themselves into a corner by leaning into these trends, and it makes you wonder if its studios can even get the investment they need without PlayStation’s install base now — even if the sales overall end up being anaemic.

So, I ask you, dear reader: will Xbox return to console-exclusive games?

I go back and forth on this, but they’re talking about “re-evaluating” too much to make me think they won’t return some form of exclusivity back to Xbox customers. I think what we’ll end up seeing is a partial return to exclusivity, perhaps with an emphasis on timed exclusivity.

I can see Gears: E-Day being a timed Xbox console-exclusive, but Microsoft already dealt the damage by announcing PlayStation versions of Halo: Campaign Evolved.

RELATED: Ranking the biggest problems faced by Xbox CEO Asha Sharma

Putting their games onto PlayStation does allow their studios to be more ambitious, and gain bigger budgets and investment. Fable decidedly looks truly AAA, but is it only AAA because Playground Games is able to offset risk and invest in studio growth thanks to huge actual and projected sales of its games on PlayStation? I certainly believe that putting Xbox games onto PlayStation helps them hit a higher quality bar.

But at the same time … it’s doing massive damage to Xbox as a hardware platform. Sales are in freefall decline. Why buy an Xbox in 2026 if none of its content is actually exclusive? This is a serious question for the average consumer.

Console enthusiasts might end up buying both devices if there’s enough content between them. I don’t have a PlayStation today, but it’s purely for incidental reasons. PlayStation has fantastic exclusive content, even if a lot of it has hit my gaming PC in recent years … I still prefer console gaming.

I’m PlayStation’s target market, and they make their platform compelling purely via virtue of their exclusive content. I’m not interested in any other aspect of the platform beyond this, and I know eventually I will buy a PlayStation (when I get my own place). Unless it was specifically to play with friends, I’m not sure why you’d buy a console were it not for the exclusive content.

I really hope Microsoft realizes that finding users from Gen-Z and Gen-Alpha is a totally separate, and much more long-term problem. If you alienate your current users, you’re not going to have a platform left at all to figure out how to solve this issue. And there’s no universe where your competitor platforms are going to help you solve this either. They will, however, happily cannibalize your platform if you let them.

Perhaps Microsoft has some kind of feature set “secret weapon” for its upcoming Xbox Helix that could help it leapfrog the need for exclusive games … but that’s a big IF, and seems entirely unlikely to me. Maybe I’m wrong, but I can’t see how Halo, Gears, and other Xbox icons on PlayStation helps improve the business for the long term. Short term gains for long term pain seems to be Microsoft’s M.O. though.

What do you think? Let us know your thoughts in the poll above, and in the comments below.

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