Reds prospect Hector Rodriguez units a brand new report with 2-HR night time

On Tuesday night time in Louisville we noticed Hector Rodriguez have himself a giant sport on the plate. The outfielder went 2-2 with two walks, two residence runs, and he drove in three runs within the Bats 5-4 win.

For Hector Rodriguez the 2 residence runs on the night gave him 21 homers on the season. His earlier profession excessive was 19, setting a brand new report for his season finest. And he did so in far fewer video games than he’s ever executed it in over the previous few seasons. In 2023 he broke out with regards to residence run energy as he hit 16 residence runs in his 115 video games. Then within the 2024 season he spent the complete yr with the Dayton Dragons and hit 12 residence runs in 125 video games performed. Last season he cut up the yr between Double-A Chattanooga and Triple-A Louisville. In these 135 video games he hit 19 residence runs.

This season he’s performed in 84 video games and is already at 21. Rodriguez has additionally added in 14 doubles and 4 triples this season. The step ahead in energy for Rodriguez has been enjoyable to see. Not simply due to the truth that he’s had 21 of them – together with one inside-the-park residence run, however partially as a result of he’s not hitting low-cost, wall-scraping residence runs.

Of his 21 residence runs this season solely one in every of them has been below 370 toes. 15 of them have gone not less than 390 toes. 10 of his residence runs have gone not less than 400 toes. And six of them have gone not less than 420 toes. The furthest went a whopping 450 toes.

Last night time the house run line wasn’t the one line within the stat report e book for Hector Rodriguez that obtained a brand new addition, although. His two walks gave him 40 of them on the season. That now has him tied along with his 2025 season for essentially the most he’s ever had. And once more, he’s performed in 51 fewer video games this season than he did final yr.

From an total statistical perspective, the stroll price for the 22-year-old has gone from 7.0% in 2025 to 10.7% in 2026. Rodriguez performed in 53 video games final season within the second half with Louisville. His stroll price with the Bats was simply 5.2% in comparison with the 8.1% he confirmed in Chattanooga in 2025.

The 10.7% stroll price this season is definitely the best he’s ever had in his profession for any degree he’s been at within the US for greater than seven video games. There’s just a few causes that his stroll price is up after we dig into the pitch-level stuff. We don’t have that degree of data for his complete minor league profession, however we do have a few of it for all ranges and all of it for his time in Triple-A.

Let’s begin with one thing easy. How usually he’s swinging at pitches. We will focus simply on when he’s been in a full-season league and ignore his time in rookie ball. In 2022 he swung at 66% of the pitches thrown to him. In 2023 that quantity dropped to 63%. That quantity dropped once more in 2024, this time all the way down to 57%. Last season in Double-A it was 54%, however jumped to 60% in Triple-A after his promotion – giving him a 56% price for your complete yr.

To put all of these numbers in context we are able to have a look at the MLB league averages. Over the final 4 years the typical swing price on all pitches seen has been between 47.2% and 47.8%. Rodriguez has been much more aggressive when it has come to swinging. It’s labored out for him as he’s definitely had few struggles over time. With that mentioned, even somebody along with his skillset goes to search out extra success when he shrinks down his “swing zone” to extra pitches which might be truly strikes.

This yr he has been far much less aggressive total. He is swinging at pitches simply 46.7% of the time. That’s a large change. We solely have pitch degree information for balls/strikes on the Single-A and Triple-A ranges within the minor leagues (groups have it in any respect ranges, however the public solely will get to see it at these two ranges), so we are able to’t do a full historic comparability with regards to chasing pitches that aren’t strikes.

What we are able to do, although, is to match how issues seemed in 2025 whereas in Triple-A with Louisville over his 53 video games and the way issues are going thus far by means of 84 video games with the Bats. Last yr he swung at pitches outdoors of the strikezone a whopping 46.2% of the time. For context, the MLB common price during the last 4 years has been between 31.5% and 32.7%. This yr he’s swinging at pitches out of the zone simply 33.8%. That’s one other large enchancment.

When it involves how usually he’s swinging at pitches within the zone he has additionally in the reduction of on how usually he’s swinging. Last season he swung at strikes 76.5% of the time. Context right here once more – MLB averages have fallen between 67.5% and 69.4% during the last 4 years. This season Rodriguez is simply swinging at pitches within the zone 62.4% of the time.

The Hector Rodriguez we’re seeing this yr is a really totally different man than the the Hector Rodriguez of the previous. He’s much less aggressive in some areas and much much less aggressive in others. And whereas he’s by no means been a slap-and-dash form of hitter and has proven some pop, he’s taken his energy to a distinct degree this yr.

On the season Rodriguez is now hitting .290/.369/.549. He’s walked 40 instances and he’s struck out 75 instances in his 374 plate appearances. He is putting out greater than ever earlier than, however not by an excessive amount of with regards to the earlier excessive level in his profession (20% this yr, 19% again in 2023, however as little as 13% in 2024). Still, his strikeout price is decrease than the league common even at his present price.