Mandel’s Mailbag: Who will return to the CFB Playoff? Greatest video games not within the Big Ten, SEC

We are knee-deep in preseason prognostication time, a foolish annual ritual the place I put my identify beside a bunch of predictions — which can inevitably show to be wildly off — and broadcast them to the world.

And I usually share them in a number of articles and podcasts, all of which reside on the web ceaselessly.

But I’d somewhat be immortalized for that than be a Heisman winner who completely blowtorched my relationship with my former faculty because of a petty grievance over a jersey quantity.

In the lengthy historical past of the 12-team Playoff, solely 4 groups have made back-to-back appearances (Ohio State, Indiana, Oregon and Georgia). If we use this ongoing development for 2026, which 4 groups from final season’s Playoff do you’re feeling most assured will return? — Ryan S

No. 1 on my checklist can be Miami, largely as a result of the Canes are a stage or two above everybody else of their convention. Even in the event that they lose at Notre Dame, they may get in both by working the desk in ACC play or shedding as soon as however successful their convention championship. (Because every Power 4 champion is now assured a berth.)

Next up: Indiana. The Hoosiers’ convention schedule is hard however not suffocating. Their flooring is 10-2, which might require successful two of 4 in opposition to Ohio State, at Michigan, vs. USC and at Washington, which appears very doable. And they’re getting in at 10-2.

Then Ohio State, although a bit cautiously. If the Buckeyes lose at Texas in Week 2, they received’t have a lot wiggle room in opposition to a Big Ten schedule that features video games at Indiana, Iowa and USC, and residential in opposition to Oregon and Michigan. But when’s the final time Ohio State didn’t go at the least 10-2? (The reply is 2011.)

The final one is hard. I consider Oregon, Notre Dame and Texas can all win the nationwide championship, however their schedules are tough for various causes. The Ducks and Longhorns face daunting slates. One or each may go 9-3. Conversely, the Irish’s schedule seems to be so gentle they may get omitted once more in the event that they lose to each Miami and BYU.

But right here’s the factor: There goes to be at the least one 9-3 Big Ten or SEC crew within the Playoff this yr, as a result of the SEC’s ninth recreation will depress these groups’ data. And I’d be shocked to see a 10-2 ACC/Big 12 crew get in above a 9-3 Big Ten/SEC crew with at the least a few huge wins.

So give me Oregon, which implies a three-peat for the Hoosiers, Buckeyes and Ducks. Georgia may actually be a part of them. But the distinction between Texas/Georgia and the subsequent 4 or so groups within the SEC feels thinner than the hole between Indiana/Ohio State/Oregon and the remainder of the Big Ten.

Hey Stew, final yr I requested you a query that you just (finally) answered, so I believed I’d pose the identical query for this season. 

If you need to attend the very best recreation each week this season, however it may possibly’t contain a Big Ten or SEC crew, and you’ll solely go to every stadium as soon as, the place would you go? —  Ryan W.

I remorse that I initially blew off your query, as a result of I loved compiling the reply. So, I’m completely satisfied to write down a 2026 version.

Aug. 29: NC State at Virginia. Thankfully, they relocated this one from Brazil, so we will open ACC play on campus. Do the Cavaliers have one other 11-win season in them?

Sept. 3 (Thursday): Colorado at Georgia Tech. It’s a prove-it recreation, each for Deion Sanders coming off 3-9, and for brand spanking new Yellow Jackets QB Alberto Mendoza.

Sept. 12: Memphis at Boise State. I like the Broncos’ backfield tandem of Dylan Riley and Sire Gaines. And you don’t must promote me on a visit to the Blue.

Sept. 19: SMU at Louisville. Two of the ACC’s three ranked groups meet early. We know all about SMU’s Kevin Jennings, however what about Louisville’s Lincoln Kienholz?

Sept. 26: Oklahoma State at West Virginia. These could possibly be the 2 most improved groups within the Big 12. And the ultimate rating could possibly be 59-56.

Oct. 3: Miami at Clemson. While I’m pessimistic about Clemson, this may nonetheless be certainly one of Miami’s larger video games. Also: The Tigers working down The Hill by no means will get outdated.

Oct. 10: North Dakota State at UNLV. I’ve received to catch the Bison throughout their first FBS season, and watching them in Sin City in opposition to the Mountain West’s preseason favourite works properly.

Oct. 17: Notre Dame at BYU. How nice for BYU that Lincoln Riley’s “no Notre Dame after Week 2” gimmick opened the door for the Irish’s first go to to Provo since 2004.

Oct. 24: Texas Tech at Cincinnati. Call it the Brendan Sorsby Revenge Game — I can’t wait to see how the Bearcats’ pupil part comes out for this one.

Oct. 31: Miami at North Carolina. I can’t think about a greater Trick-or-Treat state of affairs than Bill Belichick making an attempt to break Miami’s Playoff probabilities.

Nov. 4 (Wednesday): Toledo at Sacramento State. As a Bay Area resident, why not drive two hours and catch a #MACtion recreation? (Yes, it is a ridiculous factor.)

Nov. 7: Miami at Notre Dame. Easily the no-Big Ten/SEC Game of the Year and an ideal alternative to absorb The Grotto and Touchdown Jesus.

Nov. 14: My personal Big 12 flex week. I’m going to train a 12-day window for both Texas Tech at Oklahoma State, Utah at Arizona or Houston at Colorado.

Nov. 21: Stanford at Cal. It’s alums on each side of the Big Game now with the faculties’ new coaches, Cal’s Tosh Lupoi and Stanford’s Tavita Pritchard.

Nov. 28: The Pac-12’s flex week. This is an precise factor for the league. Potential matchups embrace San Diego State at Fresno State or Boise State at Utah State.

Dec. 5: American championship recreation. I’m secure right here as a result of I didn’t hit any of their campuses throughout the season. Navy? Memphis? UTSA? East Carolina?

Dec. 12: Army-Navy at MetLife Stadium. Maybe they’ll let me borrow a tank to navigate the New Jersey Turnpike.

Stew: What do you consider the state of the Michigan vs. Ohio State rivalry? Kyle Whittingham stated at Big Ten Media Days he doesn’t hate Ryan Day. Then backtracked to speak concerning the depth of the rivalry. But then Day modified Senior Day to Week 1 to keep away from distractions earlier than The Game. Are these guys probably the most regular coaches within the rivalry historical past or is that this a contemporary means this rivalry has modified? — Patrick 

No one would name both of these guys regular, particularly Whittingham. The Day remark doesn’t shock me, as a result of that’s simply how he talks, however Big Ten followers are solely now discovering that out as a result of they weren’t watching Utah the final 20 years.

The rivalry was sure to melt a bit post-Jim Harbaugh, as a result of how may it not? He did extra to fan the flames than any coach of these colleges since Woody and Bo, first by saying Day was born on third base; then by beating the Buckeyes thrice in a row; and by hiring Connor Stalions, who upped the nastiness by about 10 instances.

But additionally, let’s not overlook that for 3 years in a row, from 2021-23, Ohio State and Michigan met as top-five groups, together with 11-0 vs. 11-0 in each 2022 and 2023, with four-team CFP berths on the road. The Buckeyes had been ranked increased in all three conferences, and the Wolverines received all three. You can’t ask for higher drama than that.

The stakes cooled significantly the previous two seasons with Michigan out of Playoff rivalry and Ohio State safely within the 12-team subject each years (even after struggling a second loss in that inexplicable 2024 recreation). Realistically, you’re not going to get many win-or-go-home conferences going ahead. Not that it lessens the stakes for the 2 fanbases, however it would possibly really feel a twinge much less heightened nationally.

It shouldn’t be controversial that Whittingham performed good about Day. Has any coach in current historical past come out and stated they DO hate the opposing coach? But it most likely put Michigan followers on alert for indicators their new coach doesn’t care sufficient concerning the rivalry. As in, when he stated the next week, “Do we have a better chance to win if I hated them?” Before occurring to say, “It is a huge game. Gigantic. And it’s something that we all have in the back of our minds 24/7.”

All of it’s juxtaposed in opposition to Day deciding the sport is just too necessary to let the seniors stroll out with their mother and father for 5 minutes beforehand.

If the Wolverines win in Columbus this yr, all this may look like historical historical past. If they lose, although, I’m certain folks will accuse him of not hating Ohio State sufficient.

Curt Cignetti doesn’t shrink back from battle, as seen at Big Ten Media Days together with his SEC jabs, and now together with his scheduling feedback about Notre Dame. If he retains successful in January, it received’t matter who he schedules in September. But if you’re going to exit of your solution to not schedule any P4 non-conference opponents, why cancel a sequence with Notre Dame after which say you’d like to play them?  — Luke W.

Cignetti is turning into this era’s Steve Spurrier. Zingers galore. To which I say, preserve ’em coming.

But the Notre Dame line was poorly constructed. No one believes that he truly believes the Irish ought to play a 2-for-1 with the Hoosiers. I suppose it was speculated to be a dig about ND being an impartial, however it’s an impartial that handed Indiana its most up-to-date loss within the 2024 CFP, and did so decisively. So the punch fails to land.

Here are some various variations I got here up with:

“We’re the 2025 national champions. Why would we bother playing someone that hasn’t won it since the ’80s?”

“We’re a national brand now. We don’t need more games in Indiana.”

“You disrespect the Pop-Tarts Bowl, you disrespect us.”

None of which might excuse the actual fact he ducked Notre Dame. But similar to Spurrier within the “You can’t spell Citrus without U-T” days, you get to speak smack if you win quite a bit.

Stew, how excessive (or low) would you be on Texas Tech if the Brendan Sorsby state of affairs by no means got here to gentle and he began for them this season? What do you assume that crew’s ceiling or practical final result can be? — Asher

I’d be increased than I’m now, for a few causes. 1) Sorsby wasn’t Peyton Manning, however he would have been an improve from Behren Morton. But maybe extra so: 2) I worry the upheaval from that complete episode may negatively have an effect on Tech’s season.

Players don’t “block out the noise” as a lot as coaches would have us consider. Ten days after the Red Raiders left the sector on the spring recreation, their QB1 went into rehab for a playing habit. Sorsby’s standing was in limbo for practically two months, after which when he received that injunction in early June, he and this system turned the pariah of faculty soccer. That’s lots of noise for guys to take care of whereas making ready for a season.

Football-wise, although, I’m high-quality with Will Hammond as Sorsby’s substitute, and the Red Raiders would be the Big 12’s most proficient crew once more. The offense could possibly be higher, each up entrance and within the backfield, the place former USC switch Quinten Joyner is again after lacking final season.

But it’s unrealistic to assume their defensive entrance can lose 5 NFL draft picks — together with No. 2 general choose David Bailey and fellow All-Americans Jacob Rodriguez and Lee Hunter — and nonetheless be that dominant. They did retain one other seemingly All-American, DT A.J. Holmes Jr., and introduced in a pair of productive G6 pass-rushers in Trey White (San Diego State) and Adam Trick (Miami of Ohio). But final yr’s unit was the very best within the nation. This one could possibly be superb and nonetheless not come shut.

Don’t take this as me saying Tech goes to break down with out Sorsby. I most likely would have picked them to go 10-2 earlier than that, and this week I stated 9-3.

What do Big Ten groups must worry from Indiana apart from their head coach and their new QB? Is it sufficient to place them within the Playoff, actually? — Jeffrey A.

I can’t inform if that is satire? Either means, the brand new QB, Josh Hoover, is definitely the Hoosiers’ greatest query mark. It’s the remainder of the crew the Big Ten needs to be very involved about. Especially the offensive and defensive traces, the three-headed dashing assault (Khobie Martin, Lee Beebe Jr. and Boston College switch Turbo Richard) and the receivers (2025 breakout star Charlie Becker, Tyler Morris and Michigan State switch Nick Marsh).

There’s additionally been a notable under-the-radar growth in Bloomington this month.

When I visited an IU apply this spring, I used to be struck most by their go rushers, led by Kansas State transfers Tobi Osunsanmi and Chiddi Obiazor, who joined Notre Dame switch Josh Burnham and returning D-tackles Tyrique Tucker and Mario Blandino. Well, that unit might quickly be much more loaded.

You may be conscious by now {that a} federal decide in Colorado not too long ago issued an injunction granting class of 2022 recruits a fifth season. While most colleges are in a holding sample pending the NCAA’s attraction, Indiana wasted no time welcoming again departed seniors Stephen Daley, who led the Big Ten in TFLs final season (19.0) regardless of lacking the whole CFP run, and former starter Kellan Wyatt, who had 8.0 TFLs in seven video games earlier than struggling a season-ending knee harm. Neither man was drafted or signed as a free agent, so each needs to be eligible if the ruling stands.

Good luck to opposing offensive traces if that occurs.

OK Stewart, there was lots of debate about this within the feedback; settle it for us as soon as and for all. Are you biased towards the Big Ten or the SEC? — Brian S.

I feel it’s extra correct to say I’m biased in opposition to each of them. No one has but instructed me as to which league I’m speculated to favor as a substitute of them.

Hoping, primarily based on The Athletic’s article this week on brokers, that it’s not too late for off-the-field questions.

I’ve at all times learn that universities are in opposition to their athletes being workers of the faculties, regardless of their newly professionalized standing. But I’ve by no means seen an enumeration of why they’re in opposition to this? It would appear just like the quickest path to collective bargaining, that golden land the place all options appear doable.  — David T.

First of all, learn that agent article by Adam Kilgore and Zak Keefer on uncertified school NIL brokers. Some of the quotes will blow your thoughts.

The difficulty David raises is extraordinarily difficult, however it largely boils right down to this: Schools worry it’ll bankrupt their athletic departments. And they’re most likely not flawed, particularly on the decrease ranges.

Imagine if an edict got here down from above tomorrow that claims school athletes have to be handled as full-time W-2 workers. It wouldn’t apply simply to soccer and basketball. The common FBS athletic division sponsors round 20 sports activities (the NCAA minimal is 16) and includes round 500 athletes. The federal minimal wage is $7.25 per hour, although many states set it a lot increased. For simplicity’s sake, let’s put it at $10 an hour throughout the board. Multiply that by 500 workers working 40 hours per week for 48 weeks a yr. That’s practically $10 million a yr in payroll. Throw in employer taxes, unemployment, and staff’ comp, and the full comes out to about $11.5 million.

Every Power 4 faculty may afford that. The downside is it’s the identical price for each single NCAA member at each stage. Would the smaller colleges minimize soccer? Keep soccer however minimize most different males’s groups? (Title IX remains to be a factor.) Get rid of varsity sports activities completely?

Or, there’s one other dire choice for everybody above Division III: No extra scholarships. The prime 2 % of athletes making huge NIL cash may not care, however it could be devastating to the opposite 300,000-plus for whom a scholarship is price excess of minimal wage. And it’s not like they may select one or the opposite if it’s the legislation.

We are a few years from this state of affairs turning into actuality, because of a myriad of problems. But if I had been working school athletics, I’d attempt to be proactive somewhat than reactive for as soon as and begin devising a collective bargaining system that heads this off.

Do you get all amped for the beginning of the season like most followers do? Or as a result of it’s your job, do you simply have three hundred and sixty five days of numbness, by no means too excessive, by no means too low? — Todd B.

I’d say masking lawsuits, Senate payments, playing scandals and personal fairness offers has left me numb for about 350 days a yr.

But you recognize that hour-or-so window on 15 fall Saturdays, when all the three:30 p.m. ET video games are coming right down to the wire at the very same time, and the primetime video games have already kicked off?

That’s after I really feel probably the most alive.