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Researchers caution that Axial Seamount, an underwater volcano located approximately 470 kilometers off the Oregon coastline, might erupt between July 2024 and the conclusion of 2025. The research group is unable to pinpoint a precise date but have based their forecasts on signals such as surface bulging and heightened seismic activity.
Measurements taken in November indicated that the surface of Axial Seamount had expanded to nearly the same height as prior to its last eruption in 2015, suggesting magma buildup and pressure increase. This inflation indicates that more magma has gathered beneath the ocean floor, resulting in elevated pressure.
Geophysicist William Chadwick along with his team has gathered and assessed data on Axial Seamount for a decade. They have noted signs like surface swelling and earthquake swarms that parallel the indications observed preceding its last eruption in 2015. “Predicting volcanic eruptions weeks ahead is quite uncommon,” Chadwick stated, underscoring the significance of the ongoing forecasts for Axial Seamount.
Axial Seamount, one of the most active underwater volcanoes in the Northeast Pacific, rises to 1,100 meters and lies submerged over 1,400 meters beneath the ocean’s surface, rendering it one of the most closely surveyed submarine volcanoes globally. The initial recording equipment was installed at Axial Seamount in 1997, and since that time, scientists have documented the seismic activities associated with three eruptions: in 1997, 2011, and 2015. In recent years, researchers have deployed sophisticated instruments on the ocean floor near Axial Seamount to gather real-time information, enhancing their ability to predict eruptions.
Should an eruption occur at Axial Seamount in 2025, it would stand as one of the first underwater eruptions to be forecasted with precision. “Spotting early warning signs presents an exciting opportunity to deploy remotely operated vehicles to witness the eruption as it unfolds,” commented Rebecca Carey, a volcanologist from the University of Tasmania in Sandy Bay, Australia.
Axial Seamount experiences relatively frequent eruptions, offering occasions to test hypotheses and providing scientists with invaluable data to enhance eruption predictions and broaden knowledge of submarine volcanic mechanisms. “Axial Seamount is an excellent site for testing theories related to volcanic forecasting,” stated Valerio Acocella, a volcanologist at Roma Tre University in Rome. “There is always the possibility that a volcano will behave in a way we haven’t previously witnessed and take an unexpected path,” he added.
Geophysicist Michael Poland from the US Geological Survey’s Cascades Volcano Observatory in Vancouver, Washington concurs that these efforts depend on identifying patterns. “It’s about detecting patterns,” Poland mentioned.
While Axial Seamount currently poses a low immediate risk to human populations due to its remote positioning, the possibility of an eruption raises concerns regarding readiness. Although underwater volcanoes generally pose a reduced threat to human communities compared to land-based volcanoes, their eruptions can yield substantial repercussions. The eruption of Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha’apai in January 2022 serves as a significant exception, initiating a tsunami that caused damage estimated at $90 million across the Pacific region.
Seismic activity around Axial Seamount has noticeably increased, with hundreds of earthquakes recorded daily, showcasing the movement of magma and signaling a possible upcoming eruption. The expansion of Axial Seamount takes place as magma gathers underground and pressure escalates, leading to the surface bulging.
The monitoring system demonstrated its efficacy in 2015 when the surface of Axial Seamount began to expand, indicating magma accumulation beneath the crust. Months later, Axial Seamount erupted, confirming the predictions made by Chadwick and his team. By observing developments over the next year, researchers should refine their comprehension of Axial Seamount’s eruption patterns.
Researchers are utilizing artificial intelligence to analyze seismic data from the 2015 eruption, discerning specific patterns that may act as indicators for future eruptions. Underwater eruptions significantly impact biological ecosystems and hydrothermal systems, and capturing an eruption in progress offers a distinctive chance to examine its effects on the surrounding environment, including insights into hydrothermal systems and nearby biological entities.
“Whatever transpires in 2025 won’t alter the realm of eruption forecasting,” stated Acocella. “We will gain better insights, which will also enhance our understanding of other volcanoes.” Axial Seamount functions as a vital testing ground for predictive models due to its distinctive geological characteristics and advanced monitoring frameworks, rendering it an ideal site for researchers to bolster eruption prediction accuracy.
The submarine volcano was selected as the location for the world’s inaugural underwater volcano observatory, highlighting its importance in marine volcanic research. “Forecasting is challenging,” Chadwick stated. Referring to the benefit of examining a submarine volcano where there is minimal danger to human populations, he noted, “We need not worry about that.” As the anticipated eruption nears, scientists will amplify their monitoring activities at Axial Seamount, employing surface swelling, seismic activity, and other signs to forecast eruptions and deepen their insights into volcanic mechanisms.
The objective is to develop a sturdy system that can offer timely alerts and enhance preparedness for possible eruptions, ultimately aiding in the safety of coastal communities worldwide.
Science News, observervoice.com, and IFLScience reported on the anticipated eruption, among other platforms.
This article was composed with the support of a news analysis framework.
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