Imminent Eruption: The Hidden Threat of an Underwater Volcano Near the U.S. Coast

Axial Seamount rests beneath the Pacific Ocean roughly 300 miles from the U.S. coastline. Since 1997, researchers have monitored it closely using devices that track pressure on the seabed.

Information indicates that the volcano has been expanding, with varying rates suggesting a potential eruption is on the horizon.

Its activity has attracted the attention of specialists as it exhibits a trend of erupting after achieving a specific inflation level.

Observers have reported that the swelling of the volcano slowed down from 2015 to 2023, and then accelerated again in late 2023. By mid-2024, that rate reached 10 inches per year, while daily seismic activities surged into the hundreds.

Mark Zumberge, a geophysicist at Scripps Institution of Oceanography, commented on it: “It’s the most well-instrumented submarine volcano on the planet.”

He and colleagues utilize pressure sensors and AI-based analyses to assess changes in seismic patterns. William Chadwick from Oregon State University previously termed a 2015 eruption forecast their “most successful prediction.”

Where continental plates separate

Axial Seamount emerges from the Juan de Fuca Ridge, an underwater mountain chain located in the northeastern Pacific.

At this ridge, the Earth’s crust divides due to tectonic plate movements, allowing molten rock to ascend and form new crust.

The shifting plates have constructed a series of peaks known as a mid-ocean ridge. Although these ridges seldom capture the public’s fascination, they constitute one of Earth’s largest unbroken geological structures.

The ridge demarcates the Pacific Plate from the North American Plate. As these plates drift apart, magma rises to the surface and solidifies.

Volcanic and seismic occurrences are scattered throughout this area, including Axial. The repeated eruptions at this particular volcano provide researchers with a real-time perspective on volcanic mechanisms that most can only observe from ancient land rock formations.

Eruptions of Axial Seamount

Due to the frequent eruptions of Axial Seamount, opportunities arise to refine eruption predictions.

The inflation has reached levels comparable to those observed before prior eruptions, initiating discussions about the possibility of the next event occurring by late 2025.

Given the similarities in these eruptions, scientists are uncovering indications that signal magma movement and what these cues might forecast for future activities.

Hydrothermal vents contribute to the development of local marine communities. Lava flows and jets of heated fluids nourish specialized life forms, like tube worms and clams, which thrive in dark, high-pressure settings.

This small region of deep-sea life serves as a reminder of how volcanic activity can foster biological ecosystems in unforeseen areas.

AI and innovative prediction techniques

A recent initiative focuses on analyzing seismic patterns preceding 2015. This study utilizes machine learning to identify indications that precede an eruption.

Experts consider these approaches as a means to detect changes in ground motion more swiftly compared to traditional methods.

As inflation increases again, this automated monitoring could assist in pinpointing the exact moment when molten rock approaches the surface.

Zumberge and his colleagues rely on a sensor network that maps every tremor and change in ground tilt. “At Axial, we don’t face issues with false alarms,” stated Chadwick.

Owing to these advanced tools, false starts – commonly encountered in volcano surveillance – have not caused significant confusion in this case.

Beyond the slopes of Axial Seamount

Undersea eruptions might appear remote to those on land, yet they hold global importance. The 2022 Hunga Tonga incident, for instance, instigated a tsunami that incurred an estimated $90 billion in damage.

Although Axial Seamount itself presents little immediate threat – shield volcanoes exhibit less violence, and tremors in this area lack the intensity to generate large waves – insights gained may enhance efforts to predict other, more perilous locations.

“There’s no crystal ball,” observed volcanologist Valerio Acocella from University Roma Tre in Italy, who studies both submarine and terrestrial volcanoes.

This straightforward reality propels efforts to enhance predictive science, employing a broad array of data: ground deformation, seismic frequency, and the composition of volcanic gases.

Any advancements in these predictions could mitigate damage in areas where eruptions might occur without forewarning.

Enhancing models with real-time information

When

Axial erupts, molten rock spills out over the ocean floor, and new fissures emerge. These phenomena provide a direct glimpse into how magma circulates beneath the surface.

Devices continuously transmit streams of data to shore laboratories, unveiling transformations that occur within hours or even minutes.

This wealth of information aids specialists in recognizing common patterns that connect Axial’s consistent behavior to more unpredictable volcanoes globally.

Each new occurrence yields additional insights, clarifying the locations where magma is accumulated and how it migrates in the days or weeks leading up to an eruption.

As noted by Acocella, “We require these model situations to comprehend the workings of volcanoes.”

Due to Axial’s highly developed instrumentation, these “model situations” are more comprehensive than any data available from numerous terrestrial sites.

Why does any of this matter?

Despite the undersea positioning of Axial Seamount indicating a negligible threat to nearby coastlines, researchers still monitor all occurrences beneath the surface.

If a future submarine volcano displays similar indicators but is situated nearer to populated areas, analogous strategies could assist governments in their preparation.

Real-time data feeds could enable authorities to evacuate vulnerable zones or protect essential infrastructure.

At Axial, frequent eruptions instill a sense of predictability about potential future events.

In contrast to volcanoes that remain dormant for years, this one reactivates on a defined schedule, providing an opportunity to track recurring trends. This cyclical nature has transformed Axial into a practical classroom for geophysicists.

Global impact of Axial Seamount

In summary, advancements in technology have simplified the monitoring of both shallow and deep sections of the Earth’s crust. Extensive cables link sensors, providing near-instantaneous awareness of seismic swarms and ground movements.

By integrating these tools with AI algorithms, research teams detect subtle changes that may have been overlooked in previous data sets.

The expectation surrounding Axial’s next eruption has invigorated professionals involved in volcanic forecasting.

Axial’s shield-like formation, real-time oversight, and positioning on a mid-ocean ridge create a unique scenario where all elements align for practical inquiry.

Ultimately, many experts view this location as a critical testing ground for understanding submarine eruptions.

Eruptions at Axial enable researchers to collect immediate, precise data that enhances future alerts and informs preparations for potentially hazardous underwater volcanoes globally.

The research is published in the journal Nature.

Image Credit: University of Washington

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