Is Yellowstone on the Brink? New Scientific Insights into Potential Eruptions!

“There are no areas in Yellowstone that can erupt,” stated lead author Ninfa Bennington, a geophysical researcher at the Hawaiian Volcano Observatory. “Although there is a substantial amount of magma, it is not sufficiently interconnected.”

Due to the large amount of magma, Bennington noted, the area will remain volcanically active. However, the magma is stored in isolated reservoirs, making it insufficiently concentrated to result in a volcanic eruption, at least in our lifetimes, she further remarked.

There are two varieties of magma present beneath the park. The first is basaltic magma, which is responsible for most volcanic activities on Earth. It erupts with greater ease due to its lower viscidity, yet beneath Yellowstone, it is dense and located deep within the Earth’s crust. Therefore, its eruption is improbable.

In contrast, rhyolitic magma is significantly thicker and exhibits higher resistance to flow. Beneath Yellowstone, basaltic magma warms the surrounding rocks, contributing to the formation of this type of magma within the upper crust of the Earth.

However, this formation is also unlikely to trigger a volcanic eruption in the park as substantial pressure buildup is necessary for rhyolitic magma to erupt. The level of upheaval needed to induce such an eruption is markedly different from the regular activities that please visitors. If rhyolite were to erupt, Bennington indicated, it could result in highly explosive eruptions with significant ash production.

Recent volcanic activities in Hawaii, including one on the Big Island in late December, have been primarily driven by basaltic magma. Yet it was a rhyolite explosion that formed the Yellowstone Caldera.

The rhyolitic magma that explosively erupted at Yellowstone in the past had a consistency akin to asphalt, stated Michael Manga, a professor of earth and planetary science at the University of California at Berkeley who did not participate in the study.

Over the past 2.1 million years, Yellowstone has experienced three significant eruptions, with the most potent occurring in the recorded history of the planet, producing enough ash and lava to fill the Grand Canyon. However, the latest eruption was a minor one nearly 70,000 years ago, and the last major eruption was hundreds of thousands of years prior.

“Certainly, Yellowstone is not ‘overdue for an eruption,’” remarked Erik Klemetti Gonzalez, an associate professor of earth and planetary sciences at Denison University who was not part of the study. “Eruptions will occur, but it is likely to be thousands of years before an eruption can be anticipated.”

The study’s conclusion that volcanic activity is transitioning aligns with what scientists would expect, Klemetti Gonzalez commented, as the North American plate gradually shifts to the west-southwest over the volcanic hot spot below. Nonetheless, Bennington indicated, it is improbable to impact visitors’ experience within our lifetimes.

Drawing definitive conclusions about Yellowstone is complex, according to Manga, because there aren’t frequent volcanic eruptions like those in Hawaii or Iceland.

Much of the scientific literature regarding volcanoes utilizes seismic data – seismic waves that can outline geological structures – to quantify the magma present beneath the surface. Waves travel at a slower pace through molten rock than through solid rock; however, they can also be influenced by variables such as pressure and temperature.

This study employed the less conventional approach of magnetotellurics, a geophysical method utilizing the Earth’s electromagnetic field to visualize what lies beneath the surface. It is particularly sensitive to magma, Bennington explained, so the most notable anomalies will indicate magma formations. Through this mapping technique, researchers can trace the basaltic magma, which serves as the energy source driving volcanic activity in Yellowstone.

“They have assembled a highly compelling narrative regarding what is transpiring underground and the correlation between past and future volcanic activity,” Manga remarked.