Chilling Forecast: UK Faces Surge in Fatalities Amidst Met Office Snow and Ice Alerts

Public health officials in the UK anticipate an increase in fatalities due to low temperatures, with severe weather alerts for snow and ice issued over the upcoming five days.

The UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) has declared an amber alert for social care in England, noting that at-risk individuals are in danger as the country prepares for substantial snowfall and icy conditions heading into the weekend.

Yellow warnings for the Met Office are in effect for five days, starting with alerts for snow and ice that span from the Shetland Islands to Derby and Nottingham, encompassing north Wales and Northern Ireland.

An ice weather warning has also been announced for western Wales, effective from 6pm on Thursday until 10am on Friday, according to the Met Office.

By Saturday, these warnings will be superseded by a comprehensive alert for heavy snow throughout England, Wales, and southern Scotland, remaining in effect until Monday morning.

Forecasts indicate that approximately 5cm of snow is expected widely across the Midlands, Wales, and northern England, with elevations in Wales and the Pennines potentially receiving 20-30cm.

The UKHSA indicated that an uptick in deaths is probable, particularly among those 65 years old and above or suffering from health issues.

Some individuals may struggle to maintain indoor temperatures at the advised 18C, heightening the risk for those who are vulnerable.

Charities have reported that several elderly individuals not awarded the winter fuel grant by the government may face difficulties. Caroline Abrahams, director of Age UK, mentioned that the charity has already been contacted by individuals who were “concerned about what to do when this situation unfolded.” She added: “We encourage older adults to take all necessary actions to remain warm, even if it necessitates spending more on heating than they believe they can manage.”

The Met Office has cautioned that there is a slight possibility of power outages, stranded motorists, canceled train and air travel, along with some rural areas becoming inaccessible due to hazardous road conditions.

This icy forecast arrives alongside flooding that has caused property damage and vehicles being caught in swiftly rising waters.

A significant incident was announced in Greater Manchester on New Year’s Day, resulting in the evacuation of hundreds, including residents from a hotel accommodating asylum seekers and a Stockport apartment block, where people were trapped.

The incident was officially discontinued on Thursday afternoon, with nearly 1,000 individuals rescued, and emergency services shifted focus to recovery efforts. Firefighters, police, and mountain rescue teams participated in the rescue operations, with around half of those rescued being taken by boat.

Major train routes were also flooded, and the banks of a canal in Cheshire collapsed due to rising floodwaters.

On Thursday morning, a total of seven flood warnings were active in England, predominantly affecting West and North Yorkshire. An additional 40 flood alerts, indicating a possibility of flooding, extended from the Tyne and Wear coast down to Seaford on the East Sussex coast and from Shropshire in the west to the Suffolk coastline.

A flood warning was also in effect in Ness-side, near Inverness in Scotland, following several days of heavy rain and wind that resulted in the cancellation of Hogmanay events, including the street party in Edinburgh.

Road and rail travel in numerous regions of Scotland faced disruptions on Thursday, with no services on two railway lines in the Highlands due to landslips and flooding after substantial rainfall.

Additionally, warnings indicated challenging driving conditions nationwide, with some roads already closed due to snow.

For individuals planning to travel despite the frosty conditions, the Met Office and National Rail have reminded to prepare accordingly. Challenging driving situations are anticipated, especially in regions under a yellow weather alert. It’s recommended to allow additional time, as delays, detours, or hindered circumstances are probable for motorists.

Travelers utilizing public transport were advised to verify any schedules and services prior to departure due to possible delays or cancellations.

National Rail indicated that the adverse weather would affect train operations across Great Britain, impacting services from Northern, TransPennine Express, Transport for Wales, and ScotRail.

Early Thursday, two new flood alerts were issued just before 6am, with water levels peaking in the Lower River Wharfe system in Yorkshire and the Lower River Ure waterway in North Yorkshire. Both river systems and adjacent tributaries faced flood risks.

The most vulnerable areas within the Lower River Ure system include low-lying regions such as agricultural fields and roads around Masham, Boroughbridge, Aldborough, and Bishop Monkton. For Lower River Wharfe, the flood-prone areas extended from Otley to upstream of Ulleskelf, encompassing Tadcaster.

No additional significant rainfall was projected in the region on Thursday, with water levels expected to start declining by the afternoon and evening. Residents were cautioned to avoid low-lying footpaths or any bridges close to waterways, and to refrain from attempting to walk, drive, or cycle through floodwaters.

In Bristol, a severe weather emergency protocol has been initiated by the city council alongside the homelessness charity St Mungo’s, continuing until 8 January. Increased outreach shifts and additional accommodation will be provided to ensure that nobody needs to sleep outdoors amid such severe weather.

London councils have also implemented an emergency accommodation protocol for rough sleepers in freezing conditions, providing extra beds. These emergency measures have been in place for three nights in the capital so far this winter.

Tom Morgan, a meteorologist from the Met Office, stated: “Currently, we have issued a significant snow warning from Saturday through Monday, but that doesn’t imply that every location under that warning will experience snowfall; it merely serves as a caution that there could be some consequences.”

Additionally, the Met Office reported that 2024 marked the UK’s fourth-warmest year recorded, with senior scientist Mike Kendon indicating this is a further “clear demonstration that our climate is changing, currently.”

Additional reporting from PA