Jayden Reed: Breaking the Mold of Tech Enthusiasm

Every coach will possess those favorite plays they tend to rely on, which eventually frustrates the fanbase. For Mike McCarthy, it was Slant/Flat. Paul Chryst favored running Power in short-yardage situations — pulling that guard nearly every time. As supporters, a sense of familiarity develops, and as the adage goes: familiarity breeds contempt.

This leads us to the gadget plays involving Jayden Reed. While there isn’t a precise definition of what constitutes a gadget play, you recognize them upon sight. Anything that may be categorized as a “manufactured touch” for a receiver fits this description: end arounds, reverses, screens, bubble screens, touch passes, among others. Many teams today feature an offensive asset they prefer granting these touches to, and for Green Bay, that has become Jayden Reed. However, these plays haven’t been particularly effective lately.

In the early part of this season, Reed’s performance was quite remarkable, though primarily through aerial routes. After five weeks, Reed accumulated 21 receptions for 414 yards and two touchdowns, translating to a season-long projection of 71 receptions for 1,408 yards and 7 touchdowns. This represents genuine star-level output. Interspersed with those statistics were occasional rushing attempts as well. Reed recorded two carries in both Malik Willis starts against Indianapolis and Tennessee, and achieved a 33-yard touchdown in the initial game against Philadelphia.

Following the Rams match in Week 5, however, Reed’s contributions have diminished, surpassing eighty receiving yards only once in the rest of the season. Notably, Reed received merely one target during the Packers’ 34-31 defeat to the Lions on December 5th. In the four subsequent matches, Reed was targeted six, four, four, and two times, yet recorded seven rushing attempts, exceeding his combined total from the prior two months.

Since the Rams contest in week five, Reed’s rushing attempts have been quite poor. He averages a solid 4.4 yards per carry, but his EPA/rush is a concerning -0.76. Even if we disregard the fumble against Chicago due to its significant impact on the sample (-4.91 EPA), Reed would still stand at -0.35 EPA/rush since Week 6. It’s not solely about the rushing attempts, though; Reed has not excelled in the quick game either. 40% of Reed’s drops this season originated from throws behind the line of scrimmage. There have been various occasions where Reed has displayed apprehension on bubble screens, bracing for contact when it’s absent. In plays meant to act as ‘extensions of the run game,’ drops are simply unacceptable, and a drop rate of 15% in those situations won’t suffice. Reed’s effectiveness in these instances is reasonable but unremarkable at merely 4.8 yards per target. The EPA paints a more troubling picture, indicating that the average screen target for Reed is valued at -0.16 EPA/target.

Given the average yardage efficiency and Reed’s issues with securing the ball, this role becomes quite unfeasible for him. The combination of fumbles and drop concerns undermines any efficiency these plays might provide, leading to dismal EPA statistics.

Reed does not fit the conventional slot receiver archetype. He is not the type you design quick looks for, allowing his YAC ability to shine. His achievements primarily arise from stretching the field, either vertically or horizontally with significant crossing routes. He has generated over 20 EPA this season on in-breaking and vertical routes. However, the drawback of these plays is that they cannot be contrived. These types of touches exist within the play structure of the offense and depend on what the defense allows. You cannot simply execute four vertical shots or four major crossing routes directed at Jayden Reed in every game to involve him. The Packers aim to integrate Jayden Reed into the offense, but it appears his specific strengths do not align with the requirements of that role.