Oregon’s Underwater Volcano: A 2025 Eruption on the Horizon Could Revolutionize Forecasting!

The Pacific Northwest’s most dynamic underwater volcano may erupt this year, according to recent forecasts from scientists. The Axial Seamount, found 300 miles from the state’s shoreline and one mile below the surface of the Pacific Ocean, has been exhibiting a gradual expansion over the last six months, with seismic occurrences reaching hundreds of earthquakes every day, as noted in an Oregon State University blog that tracks eruption predictions for the marine volcano.

In November, scientists were alerted about the prospect of an upcoming eruption when the surface of Axial swelled to nearly the same elevation it achieved in 2015—just prior to its last eruption. When such inflation occurs, it typically indicates that magma is accumulating beneath the surface and that pressure is building in the vicinity, according to Rachel Berkowitz of Science News.

Researchers shared the most recent seismic and inflation findings regarding the volcano last month during the American Geophysical Union conference held in Washington, D.C.

The forecast made by the scientists should not be interpreted as a cause for alarm—the volcano does not endanger human life. However, from a research standpoint, this provides a fantastic opportunity to experiment with predictive methodologies.

“The safety of people isn’t a factor here,” Bill Chadwick, a volcanologist at Oregon State University spearheading the research, explains to Gosia Wozniacka of the Oregonian. “On land, you cannot perform this forecasting without the anxiety of false alarms, causing public distress and economic repercussions. You want to avoid evacuating towns without definitive proof that it is necessary.”

Hence, he emphasizes, the Axial Seamount serves as “an excellent natural laboratory” for examining undersea eruptions and volcanic forecasting. Currently, dependable predictions regarding volcanic eruptions seldom exceed a few days ahead, according to the Smithsonian’s Global Volcanism Program.

Examining Submarine Volcanoes

The current inflation of the Axial Seamount is not unexpected. This region is recognized as the most active underwater volcano in the Pacific Northwest, having erupted in 1998, 2011, and 2015. It is located on the Juan de Fuca Ridge, an underwater mountain range situated between two diverging tectonic plates: the Juan de Fuca Plate and the Pacific Plate. These regions are rich in marine biodiversity, featuring octopuses, bacteria, mussels, deep-sea crabs, and tubeworms.

Axial is also the globe’s most closely observed submarine volcano. Due to its frequent activity, the seamount hosts the world’s inaugural underwater observatory, known as the New Millennium Observatory, or NeMO, according to reports from Oregon State University. Every vibration, twitch, or shake is documented and transmitted to researchers in real-time through a fiber-optic cable on the seafloor as part of a network called the Ocean Observatories Initiative (OOI), as reported by Marley Parker for the National Deep Submergence Facility. For the past decade, scientists have been tracking the volcano’s rumblings and quakes through this cable.

Chadwick and his team frequently embark on expeditions to the seamount to collect additional data. Most recently, the 2024 expedition to the Axial Seamount repeated pressure assessments and continued to document the inflation rates since 2015.

Current volcanic eruption predictions are based on identifying patterns from past events when the volcano last erupted. In 2015, the inflation around the seamount began a few months after experts started monitoring the area. The current inflation level has reached approximately 95 percent of the measurements observed before the eruption in 2015, as per the shared research, and seismic activity has similarly increased. Additional researchers have been utilizing artificial intelligence to analyze earthquakes from the 2015 eruption to enhance predictions for future eruptions, according to Science News.

“If a model can be developed for how this operates at Axial, it provides us with a foundational understanding that can be adapted elsewhere, and with minor adjustments, we can begin developing forecasts for other volcanoes,” Michael Poland, a research geophysicist at the U.S. Geological Survey’s Cascades Volcano Observatory who was not part of the research, explains to the Oregonian.

However, predicting volcanic behavior is not always straightforward, and eruptions can still be erratic, even with the available data. “There’s always a chance that a volcano will follow an unrecognized pattern and behave unexpectedly,” Poland tells Science News.

When the Axial Seamount eventually erupts, it won’t be particularly dramatic. It is classified as a shield volcano, which suggests it will not erupt explosively. Instead, it will release lava once sufficient pressure fractures the surface, as Jes Burns noted for Oregon Public Broadcasting last year. Regardless of the timing of Axial’s eruption, it will offer researchers deeper insights into volcanic behavior, precursors to eruptions, and the subsequent effects.

“We derive the most knowledge from volcanoes during their active phases,” Chadwick emphasizes to the National Deep Submergence Facility. “A significant part of our work here is to ensure everything is ready for the upcoming eruption.”