Unveiling the Future: Insights from the Fourth Nuclear Consultative Group Gathering

The United States and the Republic of Korea (ROK) convened the fourth Nuclear Consultative Group (NCG) in Washington, D.C. on January 10, 2025. The NCG serves as a sustainable bilateral advisory body aimed at enhancing extended deterrence that promotes peace and stability on the Korean Peninsula and the surrounding region.

The meeting was co-led by Ms. Cara Abercrombie, who is fulfilling the role of Deputy Under Secretary of Defense for Policy, and Dr. Cho Chang Lae, ROK Deputy Minister for National Defense Policy. Additional participants included representatives from the U.S. National Security Council, the ROK National Security Office, and pertinent defense, foreign affairs, intelligence, and military institutions from both nations.

During the meeting, both parties praised the NCG’s efforts that have strengthened nuclear deterrence and the Alliance’s response capabilities over the previous year through comprehensive discussions on various aspects of extended deterrence, including information exchange, consultative frameworks, and collective planning and execution.

The United States reaffirmed its unwavering commitment to the ROK. Any nuclear aggression by the DPRK will elicit a rapid, overwhelming, and decisive retaliation. The United States reiterated that any nuclear assault by the DPRK against the United States or its allies is intolerable and will culminate in the downfall of that regime. The U.S. dedication to extended deterrence for the ROK is reinforced by the complete spectrum of U.S. capabilities, inclusive of nuclear assets. Moreover, both parties acknowledged the continually bolstered cooperation on extended deterrence between the United States and the ROK through the persistent efforts of established consultancy bodies, including the NCG, the Extended Deterrence Strategy and Consultation Group, along with the Security Consultative Meeting.

The NCG co-chairs evaluated the advancements in NCG workstreams, which involve security and information-sharing protocols; nuclear and strategic preparation; conventional-nuclear integration (CNI); drills, simulations, and training sessions; nuclear consulting and strategic communication measures during crises and emergencies; establishing dedicated secure communication channels; and strategic messaging. NCG Principals also deliberated on various initiatives aimed at maintaining and fortifying nuclear deterrence policy and posture, in alignment with the United States and Republic of Korea Guidelines for Nuclear Deterrence and Nuclear Operations on the Korean Peninsula (Guidelines), which serve as a crucial document for enhancing U.S.-ROK extended deterrence cooperation in an integrative approach.

The NCG co-chairs commended the advancements made in nuclear and strategic preparation, particularly regarding the CNI workstream developed by defense entities, including the ROK Strategic Command, U.S.-ROK Combined Forces Command, U.S. Forces Korea, U.S. Indo-Pacific Command, and U.S. Strategic Command. This involves closely synchronizing the capabilities and planning activities of the new ROK Strategic Command with the Alliance’s combined defensive posture.

The NCG Principals concluded that NCG initiatives, such as the Nuclear Deterrence Immersion Course, the NCG Simulation, and a military-to-military table-top exercise (TTX), contribute to enhancing collaborative and coordinated decision-making on nuclear deterrence and foster a united approach to planning for nuclear contingencies.

The United States has also reaffirmed its commitment to elevate the regular visibility of U.S. strategic assets in the Korean Peninsula. Furthermore, the co-chairs opted to continue exploring methods to conduct U.S.-ROK conventional and nuclear integration drills and training.

Both sides concurred that the NCG is a lasting bilateral consultative entity designed to strengthen the U.S.-ROK Alliance, which has deepened cooperation on extended deterrence. Additionally, the co-chairs emphasized that the NCG will persist as a robust foundation for enhancing U.S.-ROK extended deterrence in a cohesive manner. The NCG Principals committed to continue progressing swiftly and substantively on NCG workstreams, including outcomes derived from the 56^th Meeting of the Security Consultative Meeting.

The NCG co-chairs approved an NCG work plan along with essential activities for the first half of 2025, which encompasses convening the fifth principal-level NCG assembly in the ROK.

An NCG fact sheet detailing major workstreams, participants, and achievements can be accessed here.