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The year 2025 has finally arrived, and for fans of Xbox, it signifies yet another year of contradictions.
Microsoft is poised to experience its most robust year ever in first-party offerings. Following nearly a decade of pleas from Xbox enthusiasts, the company’s buying spree is starting to yield results. Indiana Jones was a contender for game of the year when it launched late last year. Second-party publishing achieved significant successes with STALKER 2 and Palworld. Long-time non-participants such as Genshin Impact, Final Fantasy Pixel Remaster Collection, and even Death Stranding made their way to Xbox. Combine all this with a solid content delivery from Blizzard, Activision, Bethesda, and Xbox Game Studios, and 2024 was a remarkable year for game releases.
However, a notable issue loomed large as well.
Microsoft contradicted earlier statements regarding exclusive Xbox games by essentially conceding that the console ecosystem is no longer substantial enough to sustain its operations. Consequently, an increasing number of Xbox titles have begun appearing on PlayStation, prompting Xbox fans to question whether Microsoft has a viable future as a platform provider. I suspect that 2025 will continue to raise such concerns.
Let’s explore some predictions and non-predictions for Xbox in 2025, alongside what its future may entail.
More content than ever for Xbox, along with increased content outside of Xbox
It’s a peculiar contradiction for Microsoft at present. It currently boasts the largest mobile game, the biggest shooter service game, the leading MMORPG, and numerous other billion-dollar franchises in its portfolio. The acquisition of Activision-Blizzard was anticipated to be a tremendous advantage for Xbox, granting it control over some of the most significant entertainment brands in history, yet thus far, it hasn’t led to the revival many of its users anticipated for Xbox.
Many accepted that Activision-Blizzard was too massive to truly result in exclusive content for Xbox console users. But few could have foreseen that the acquisition would lead to Xbox essentially losing all exclusive titles in the process. Indeed, as I mentioned last week, Xbox is gearing up to transfer Halo, Gears of War, and several other exclusives to PlayStation and the Nintendo Switch 2. This follows remarks from Xbox CEO Phil Spencer, which highlighted the critical role exclusive games play for Xbox. Spencer had previously recognized that Sony utilizes the revenue from popular titles like Minecraft to secure exclusivity on sought-after games such as Silent Hill 2, Stellar Blade, and potentially Black Myth Wukong. He also emphasized that Xbox fans deserve transparency on which games will, or won’t, be exclusive. He specifically stated that “it wouldn’t be Indiana Jones” going multiplatform, mere months before it was revealed that Indiana Jones is indeed going multiplatform. So, what exactly is happening here?
Phil Spencer, 2020: “I don’t really love this idea that for every one of our games, there becomes this little rumor on it ‘is it going to end up on the Switch or not.’ I feel we should set a better expectation with our fans than that.” Fans will judge Xbox on words & actions. https://t.co/WMU98Mnwp6January 6, 2024
Like most major corporations, Xbox operates based on future forecasts, and numerous forecasts regarding the gaming sector as a whole, especially consoles, are not particularly optimistic at the moment. Xbox is currently at the bottom of the ladder, facing greater challenges than many, marked by nearly free-falling hardware sales quarter-over-quarter since the Xbox Series X|S platform concluded its initial launch phase. However, hardware statistics don’t reveal the entire narrative. The potential audience for console gaming is not expanding as quickly as costs have been escalating, which has compelled Xbox to seek alternative revenue avenues. Thus far, this has included Steam and the Microsoft Store, but in 2025, it will also feature PlayStation to a greater extent than ever before. The transition of iconic franchises like Halo to PlayStation is a pivotal moment for Xbox as a platform, leading it into uncertain territory.
For 2025, one can expect further hardware declines year-over-year, pushing Microsoft’s “Project Latitude” strategy into acceleration. More titles will migrate to PlayStation 5 and Nintendo Switch 2 as Microsoft aims to attract new users regardless of their platform. The expense of user acquisition within the Xbox hardware ecosystem has simply outstripped the costs associated with supporting PlayStation, at least in the short term. Yet, this doesn’t imply that current Xbox hardware consumers are set to be at a disadvantage.
This year, Microsoft is likely to unveil some Xbox exclusives as well, even if some will be “timed” exclusives. The Xbox Developer_Direct is scheduled for January 23rd, featuring DOOM: The Dark Ages, South of Midnight, and Clair Obscur: Expedition 33. Additionally, there’s an enigmatic fourth title, and while I won’t spoil what it is, our sources suggest it is a new installment in a prominent Japanese IP with decades of legacy, which should please many fans. Microsoft has recently garnered strong backing from
With split focus, Xbox is evolving into a master of many trades, but will it also ultimately become a master of none?
During CES 2025, Microsoft’s Vice President of Next Gen, Jason Ronald, joined Lenovo and Valve to delve into one of the most fascinating categories of gaming hardware in recent times, the PC gaming handheld. The primary challenge is that Windows is not tailored for handheld controller functionality, as the majority of the interface anticipates a mouse. This has allowed the Steam Deck and emerging third-party Steam OS devices to gain a significant advantage in usability, even if Microsoft can claim superior compatibility. Accessing features like PC Game Pass on a Steam Deck, or games provided through third-party launchers like Genshin Impact or Fortnite, tends to be quite cumbersome.
GUIDE: Steps to install Windows on a Steam Deck
Throughout 2025, Microsoft intends to enhance the functionality of Windows on such devices with a range of updates focused on the Xbox Game Bar and similar tools. However, it seems that Microsoft may be preparing to advance further and genuinely connect the gap between Xbox and PC in ways we once thought were unattainable.
“Xbox Play Anywhere” is among the most overlooked elements of the Xbox ecosystem, allowing you to purchase a game once and enjoy it across both PC and Xbox consoles on a single license. This now extends to include Xbox Cloud Gaming, providing a truly universal plug-and-play experience that Steam is just beginning to catch up with. A competition is in motion to truly realize that “gaming everywhere” vision between Xbox and Steam, and it’s likely that both competitors will intensify their efforts to cater to players and developers in their race to achieve it first.
Although Xbox hardware sales have dipped, according to Xbox head Phil Spencer, Microsoft’s overall console user base remains stable. There are alternative avenues for Microsoft to expand its total user base within the Xbox ecosystem. I’ve gathered that Xbox Cloud Gaming, which technically counts as Xbox console users, has recently reached a significant usage milestone. Furthermore, Microsoft is enhancing Xbox Cloud Gaming by introducing features like 4K streaming, elevated bitrates, PC game compatibility, and additional buy-to-own Xbox cloud games, alongside semi-regular content updates as it scales its network storage capabilities. Additionally, Microsoft is devoting more silicon resources to accommodate demand for Xbox Cloud Gaming, which continues to expand notably in markets viewing console hardware as a premium luxury.
Nevertheless, I find myself pondering whether Xbox can genuinely fulfill all these diverse objectives concurrently without neglecting its current users. While pursuing new users on PC and through cloud devices, such as the recently announced collaboration with LG TV and Amazon Fire Stick, are Xbox Series X|S console users truly content with their experience? Do potential new customers view Xbox Series X|S consoles as a valid alternative to Steam Decks, PlayStations, and other devices? I suspect Xbox will start showcasing its hardware ambitions more prominently this year, partly to dispel rumors about potentially “exiting” console hardware, but also to assure fans that it is earnestly innovating.
Furthermore, Microsoft is reportedly rigorously investigating AI for Xbox, whether in game development scenarios or for gameplay enhancements. For instance, Microsoft recently filed a patent for generative AI applications in games such as Minecraft. I’ve also heard that Microsoft is looking into how AI can optimize the rendering pipeline for the games, potentially addressing latency challenges associated with cloud gaming. While many core gamers may scoff at the mere mention of generative AI, it’s likely that the next generation of gamers, raised with this technology, won’t mind how or when their games are made. Someone will figure out a way to leverage this within the gaming context, and Microsoft would prefer that it’s them, rather than competitors like xAI, Meta, or their longtime rival Google.
We received indications that Xbox’s “Sebile” haptics controller is still under development, and Phil Spencer himself disclosed that the company is working on its own Xbox handheld. However, will this handheld operate on the Xbox OS or the Windows platform? The Microsoft Xbox store boasts thousands of games, far exceeding the titles available in the PC Microsoft Store. That said, Microsoft may not have the necessary rights to offer PC versions of those Xbox games unless it constructs a type of emulation layer. But could that create potential legal complications with publishers as well? Furthermore, if the handheld is merely a Windows-based device, wouldn’t that potentially undermine their OEM partners such as Lenovo and others? I anticipate that we will soon receive clarification on the direction Xbox intends to take with its current user base — I certainly don’t wish for my extensive collection of digital Xbox games to become obsolete on a platform that lacks a clear future.
An Xbox balancing act
Indeed, it’s a monumental balancing act that Microsoft is attempting, juggled between developing platforms for mobile, cloud, and PC, all while ensuring existing users remain satisfied. I believe that in terms of content, Xbox is poised for its most successful year yet in terms of forthcoming games. However, regarding platform developments, I foresee ongoing confusion and concerns about the future of the Xbox hardware ecosystem. I genuinely appreciate the vision of “Xbox everywhere,” but the execution must be impeccable for both developers and consumers.
What are your major expectations for Xbox in 2025? What would you like to witness from Xbox in 2025? Share your thoughts in the comments.
Read more: On Xbox’s peculiar future
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