“Hope on the Horizon: Closer Look at Potential Ceasefire Between Israel and Hamas”

Police clash with protesters who obstruct a road during a demonstration advocating for a ceasefire agreement and the prompt release of hostages held in the Gaza Strip by Hamas, in Tel Aviv, Israel, on Saturday.

Ariel Schalit/AP

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Ariel Schalit/AP

Following over 15 months of conflict in their most catastrophic war to date, Israel and Hamas seem quite close to reaching a ceasefire agreement, according to officials engaged in the discussions.

Majed Al Ansari, a counselor to the Qatari prime minister and spokesperson for the Foreign Ministry, informed journalists in Doha, where the discussions are taking place, that an agreement is “close at hand.” He mentioned that the primary hurdles have been overcome and the negotiations are now focused on “the final particulars.”

He refrained from disclosing specifics of the forthcoming agreement. Nonetheless, an Israeli official, who requested anonymity due to the delicate nature of the discussions, clarified some of the main terms.

The proposed agreement anticipates a six-week cessation of hostilities, during which 33 Israeli hostages held by Hamas and other militants in Gaza will be freed, in exchange for a significantly higher number of Palestinian detainees, as per a formula that prioritizes hostages who are returned alive. According to a Palestinian official, who was not permitted to speak to the media, approximately 1,000 Palestinians are expected to be released from Israeli custody.

Israel characterizes the hostages set to be released as humanitarian cases, and the Israeli official indicated that they include women, individuals over 50 years, children, and those who are injured or ill.

The forthcoming agreement follows several weeks of several intensive rounds of negotiations in Doha between Israel and Hamas. Delegates from both parties were in separate rooms, while mediators from the U.S., Egypt, and Qatar relayed messages back and forth.

Representatives from both President Biden’s administration and President-elect Trump’s team were also present, pressuring both sides to finalize a deal. Expectations heightened last weekend after Steve Witkoff, Trump’s envoy to the Middle East, visited Qatar, and an Israeli delegation that included Mossad intelligence chief David Barnea and Ronen Bar, head of the Shin Bet internal security agency, arrived to join the discussions.

The goal of the negotiators was to achieve a signed agreement or a roadmap for a ceasefire agreement by Inauguration Day, Jan. 20.

Even after the agreement is endorsed, it will require approval from the full Israeli Cabinet and government, and it is likely to undergo scrutiny before the Israeli Supreme Court. Therefore, it may take several days before the terms are enacted.

However, the initial exchange of Israeli hostages and Palestinian detainees is anticipated to occur immediately once implementation commences, possibly even on the same day. The parties are also discussing arrangements to permit displaced Palestinians in southern Gaza to return to their homes in the north.

A new round of discussions will commence 16 days into the first phase of the agreement regarding additional troop withdrawals by Israel from Gaza, although the Israeli official stated that a complete withdrawal would not occur until all hostages have been fully released.

Large segments of the populace in both Israel and Gaza are weary from the ongoing conflict and are likely to welcome an agreement that signals a definitive end. Nonetheless, some conservative members of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s administration have already voiced their opposition to the agreement, asserting that Hamas should be entirely dismantled to avert a recurrence of the October 7, 2023, attack on Israel, in which Hamas militants and others killed roughly 1,200 people and abducted more than 250 hostages.

Approximately 100 hostages were released in a similar agreement between Israel and Hamas at the end of 2023, while others were either rescued or found deceased. About 240 Palestinians were released from Israeli prisons as part of that agreement.

Many families of the remaining hostages, who are not slated for release in the initial phase, are concerned that the push to secure their relatives’ release may diminish. They have been advocating for a comprehensive agreement that concludes the conflict and guarantees the release of all hostages.

The renewed momentum in the negotiations coincides with an escalation in fighting on the ground. Since Saturday, at least 79 Palestinians have been killed, as reported by Gaza’s health authorities, while the Israeli military indicated that nine soldiers have died.

These casualties bring the overall death toll during the conflict to over 46,000 Palestinians, according to Gaza’s health authorities, who have not specified how many of those deceased were combatants. They have indicated, however, that the majority of the confirmed deaths have been women and children. The Israeli military reports that 405 soldiers have lost their lives in combat since the invasion of Gaza following the October 7 rampage.

Israel and Hamas have engaged in several conflicts since the Palestinian militant group seized control of the Gaza Strip from the Palestinian Authority in 2007. However, none of the previous wars have been nearly as prolonged or deadly.