Unveiling the Hidden Impacts of the Nord Stream Pipeline Leak

A significant leakage of a greenhouse gas from the Nord Stream pipeline was more substantial than initially understood, according to fresh research involving scholars from the University of Leeds.

An international collaboration of 67 researchers, including four from Leeds’ School of Earth and Environment, has now disclosed the real magnitude of the leak in 2022 – the largest single emission of methane ever documented.   

Emissions from the pipeline which conveys natural gas from Russia to Germany beneath the Baltic Sea were determined to be almost double some preliminary estimates, with roughly 465,000 metric tons of methane emitted into the atmosphere – equivalent to eight million vehicles on the road for a year.   The findings of the research are published today (15 January 2025) in the journal Nature

The study, spearheaded by the United Nations Environment Programme, utilized advanced estimates of the leaks based on various scientific methodologies, integrating new assessments from pipeline leak models, ocean and atmospheric models, along with numerous observations of the methane dispersed into the atmosphere.  

Grasping and diminishing methane emissions will greatly aid in curtailing the severity of climate change. 

The team at the University of Leeds utilized a 3D chemistry transport model known as TOMCAT to trace satellite-based observations of the methane plume back to its origin and generate an observation-centric estimate of the leak rate from the pipelines. TOMCAT employs meteorological data, such as wind and temperature variations, to simulate the movement of chemicals throughout the atmosphere.

By merging data from the Leeds researchers with additional sources, the international team could offer a more comprehensive and precise estimate of emissions. 

Study co-author Dr Chris Wilson , a research scientist for the UK’s National Centre for Earth Observation (NCEO) and the School of Earth and Environment at Leeds, remarked: “This incident discharged an immense quantity of natural gas into the atmosphere, and one satellite instrument that we employed was capable of tracking a plume of extraordinarily high methane concentrations over the North Sea for several days afterwards. 

“Our team at Leeds harnessed these observations to quantify the leaks, and our atmospheric model provided one of the crucial elements of evidence for the solid estimate presented in this new study.”

Prior estimates of the Nord Stream leak were highly variable; however, each contributed a piece of the narrative from a distinct viewpoint. The researchers are convinced that by integrating these estimates, they have offered a coherent and accurate representation of emissions, underscoring the significance of synthesizing diverse yet complementary measurement techniques.

Co-author Professor Martyn Chipperfield from the National Centre for Earth Observation at the University of Leeds added: “Methane stands as a highly potent greenhouse gas, second only to carbon dioxide in its relevance to driving climate change. 

“Additionally, due to its relatively brief atmospheric lifespan, gaining insight into and reducing its emissions will present a substantial advantage in constraining the extent of climate change. 

“This unanticipated case study has validated our capacity to quantify methane sources from a myriad of origins.”

Additional Information

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For media inquiries, please reach out to Kersti Mitchell at the University of Leeds press office via [email protected]