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This is an excerpt from The Buzzer, which is CBC Sports’ each day e mail publication. Subscribe here.
Summer McIntosh has an especially bold aim for the upcoming swimming world championships in Singapore.
After successful a Canadian-record three gold medals in 4 particular person occasions on the Paris Olympics final summer time, the 18-year-old phenom now desires to turn into solely the second swimmer in historical past to win 5 solo titles at a single long-course world championships. The first was Michael Phelps, who did it in 2007 en path to his iconic eight-gold-medal efficiency on the Beijing Olympics the next yr, which included 5 particular person victories and three relay wins.
“[At the] Olympics, the goal was four golds and I didn’t reach that,” McIntosh instructed CBC Sports’ Devin Heroux after the Canadian trials in June. “So I was hungry for more.”
That’s proper — earlier than she will even legally order a beer in most provinces, Summer is making an attempt one thing that solely the best swimmer in historical past has ever achieved. And her probabilities really look fairly good after she broke three world information on the trials in Victoria (within the 400m freestyle and the 200m and 400m particular person medleys) whereas coming inside a second of two extra (within the 200m butterfly and 800m freestyle).
The final swimmer to interrupt three long-course world information on the similar meet? Phelps in Beijing. Clearly, Summer is already in rarefied air.
WATCH | Previewing McIntosh and Ledecky’s ‘race of the century’ within the 800m free:
American powerhouse Katie Ledecky broke her personal 800m free world document in May, and only a few weeks later at Canadian Trials Summer McIntosh got here inside .95 seconds of the document in her 800m ultimate. On Day 7 of swimming worlds we are going to witness these two champions go head-to-head for what The Ready Room’s Brittany MacLean Campbell is looking the ‘race of the century’. Watch it stay August 2nd on CBC Gem.
But, to be able to match Phelps’ document 5 golds on the world championships, McIntosh must defeat one other GOAT-level American athlete in not one however two races. That could be Katie Ledecky, the 28-year-old freestyle endurance marvel who owns eight particular person Olympic gold medals and 16 particular person world titles.
Five of these Olympic golds and 10 of these world titles have are available in both the 400m or 800m freestyle. Those are the occasions the place McIntosh and Ledecky will sq. off in Singapore, and it is secure to say they’re essentially the most extremely anticipated showdowns of the complete swimming worlds, which open July 26 in Canadian time zones and run by means of Aug. 3.
“Anytime I get to race Katie, it’s a learning experience and it’s always a good race,” McIntosh instructed reporters on a convention name from her present coaching base in France. “I think we bring the best out of each other for sure.”
So, who’s going to win these races? And what sort of occasions are these two unbelievable swimmers able to laying down?
To attempt to reply these questions, CBC Sports enlisted the assistance of Shoreview Sports Analytics to crunch the numbers and formulate predictions for the way the Summer vs. Katie showdowns may play out. And to complement that tough knowledge with some softer, extra subjective experience, I mentioned the matchups with my colleague Brittany MacLean Campbell, an Olympic relay bronze medallist who as soon as held the Canadian information within the ladies’s 400m and 800m freestyles and nonetheless owns the nationwide 1,500m normal. She’s now a swimming analyst for CBC Sports.
Informed by these left- and right-brain evaluation, here is a breakdown of the 2 huge races.
Women’s 400m freestyle ultimate – Sunday July 27
One of the cool issues about this pair of showdowns is that McIntosh and Ledecky will change roles. In one race, you are the hunter. In the opposite, you are the hunted.
For the 400m freestyle, McIntosh is the clear favorite after reclaiming the world document on the Canadian trials with a time of three:54.18, lopping greater than a second off the mark set by Australia’s Ariarne Titmus on the 2023 world championships.
Titmus went on to win her second consecutive Olympic 400 free gold in Paris and will have been favoured to seize her third world title in Singapore. But the 24-year-old is taking a spot yr to recharge for what she says shall be her ultimate Olympic Games in 2028. That leaves McIntosh and Ledecky — the Paris silver and bronze medallists, respectively — as the most important stars within the race, with New Zealand’s Erika Fairweather (fourth in Paris) lurking as a possible spoiler.
McIntosh has by no means received the 400m freestyle world title. She took silver behind Ledecky in 2022, then positioned a disappointing fourth in her extremely anticipated matchup towards Ledecky and Titmus on the 2023 worlds, the place Fairweather snuck in for the bronze. At the 2024 Olympics, the 400 free was the one one in every of McIntosh’s 4 solo races that she didn’t win.
Ledecky, alternatively, owns 4 world titles within the 400m freestyle together with an Olympic gold in 2016, the place she set a world document that stood for almost six years till Titmus broke it in 2022. Ledecky additionally defeated McIntosh of their most up-to-date 400m matchup, at a star-studded Pro Swim Series cease in Fort Lauderdale, Fla., in early May, overtaking the decade-younger Canadian on the ultimate lap and posting her greatest time since successful the 2016 Olympic gold. It was a surprising return to type for Ledecky, who had gave the impression to be slowing down a bit in her late 20s (fairly previous by elite-swimmer requirements).
But then McIntosh, who could have been slowed by an sickness in Fort Lauderdale, reaffirmed her standing because the world-title favorite along with her record-smashing swim on the Canadian trials. Her 3:54.18 efficiency was much more spectacular contemplating it got here fairly early within the season (she’s aiming to peak for the worlds) and that nobody in that race was able to pushing her (she received by a ridiculous 13 seconds).
Taking that under consideration, the Shoreview analytics group believes McIntosh will defeat Ledecky on the world championships by greater than a second, which equates to round a physique size. Their mannequin’s anticipated vary of outcomes for Summer has her going as quick as 3:53.93 (a brand new world document), with 3:57.48 (good for gold in Paris) representing a mean of one of the best and worst occasions in her vary. The mannequin suggests Ledecky may go as fast as 3:55.21, with a mean of three:58.81.
How does the mannequin arrive at these occasions? Shoreview co-founder Mike Heenan says the method begins by “simulating 8,000 performance curves based on prior trends and physiological assumptions.” Using that data, he simulated the race 20 occasions and chosen one end result that he thinks correctly accounts for the upside obvious in Ledecky’s and McIntosh’s excellent swims in May and June whereas nonetheless being mathematically sound. “It’s a mix of art and science,” he says.
It’s additionally doable that McIntosh blows previous the vary altogether and obliterates her world document. But Heenan reminds us that statistical fashions usually do not undertaking such outlier performances — even for somebody on Summer’s meteoric trajectory. “Trying to predict something that’s never happened before is challenging,” he says.
MacLean Campbell, our swimming analyst, is a bit bolder than the mannequin. She’s assured that McIntosh will clock in someplace within the 3:53s, breaking the world document, and beat Ledecky by “a second, if not two.”
One cause MacLean Campbell is so bullish on Summer on this specific race? Motivation. “This is her biggest test. She’s got something to prove here.”
Women’s 800m freestyle ultimate — Saturday Aug. 2
While McIntosh is the consensus decide within the 400m, Ledecky is favoured within the 800 — her signature occasion. But this one feels somewhat extra up for grabs.
Ledecky is the undisputed queen of the 800, successful the final 4 consecutive Olympic gold medals and 6 straight world titles. (Let’s all comply with ignore the superfluous 2024 world championships, which a lot of the greatest swimmers skipped in an Olympic yr). The American has maintained the world document since 2013 and, simply when it appeared she may be previous her prime, she lowered her nine-year-old normal of 8:04.79 from the Rio Olympics to eight:04.12 on the similar Fort Lauderdale meet again in May the place she beat McIntosh within the 400.
Summer, in the meantime, is venturing out of her consolation zone. She swam the 800 on the 2021 Olympics in Tokyo, when she was simply 14 years previous, however didn’t advance previous the qualifying heats. Despite defeating Ledecky in Florida previous to the 2024 Olympics — Ledecky’s first 800m loss in 14 years — McIntosh didn’t embrace the 800 in her program for Paris. But she included it in her push for 5 golds on the world championships after an electrifying efficiency on the Canadian trials, the place she laid down a 8:05.07. That’s the third-fastest time in historical past and fewer than a second off Ledecky’s world document.
Ledecky, although, nonetheless owns 10 of the highest 11 occasions ever, and her endurance bona fides are unassailable. She’s received a pair of Olympic golds and 5 world titles within the 1,500m (pool swimming’s longest distance) alongside along with her large assortment of 800m golds. But McIntosh, to her credit score, sought out this showdown.
“One of the many reasons I picked the 800 [for the worlds] is because in my opinion it is the biggest challenge,” she stated. “Katie is so strong and in her top form this season, so that matchup will be awesome.”
Ledecky has been so good for therefore lengthy that it is exhausting to select towards her within the 800. But Summer continues to be on the rise, and he or she had what she referred to as the “best meet of my career” on the Canadian trials after she started working with French coach Fred Vergnoux. His group does pool coaching on the Riviera, the place he is helped McIntosh construct up her endurance for the 800, and altitude camp at a mountain ski resort, the place he had her attempt cross-country snowboarding for the primary time.
“Fred has been absolutely incredible,” stated McIntosh, who lights up each time she talks about him. “We’ve only been together for a few months now, but we’ve sparked up a relationship so quickly and bonded amazingly. He’s such an amazing coach and he has really taken me to the next level in the sport.”
The feeling is mutual. “What makes the difference between [Summer] and the rest is that she never has an off day,” Vergnoux instructed MacLean Campbell just lately. “She’s just embracing every single session to become better, and that’s pretty unique.”
The difficult factor about predicting the 800m is there’s not as a lot high-quality knowledge to work with. McIntosh has solely raced it a handful of occasions.
For that cause, the Shoreview group determined to make use of what co-founder Ryan McDonnell refers to as “partial pooling” — in different phrases, a shared mannequin between the 2 swimmers. This resulted in some fairly conservative time projections, but it surely additionally factors to a doozy of a race. If we go by the common of their anticipated ranges, the mannequin has Ledecky successful by lower than 1 / 4 of a second (8:06.10 to eight:06.34). By quickest time, it is even nearer: Ledecky by simply seven hundredths (8:01.24 to eight:01.31).
Looking at these projections, MacLean Campbell thinks the quickest occasions may be somewhat bold provided that the 800m ultimate will occur on the second-last day of a gruelling meet for each swimmers. At the identical time, she suspects the common is just too gradual and that, going head-to-head, McIntosh and Ledecky will push one another into the “8:03 or 8:04 range” and contact the wall inside a few half second of one another — nonetheless extremely shut for such an extended race.
But perhaps we’ll give the final phrase to Vergnoux, who had a daring prediction when Brittany interviewed him for a latest episode of her swimming speak present, The Ready Room. The query at hand was whether or not McIntosh is able to breaking Ledecky’s 800m world document of 8:04.12
“I think Summer can go under eight minutes,” her coach stated. “No question.”
How to observe the swimming world championships
As a part of CBC Sports’ ongoing protection of the World Aquatics Championships in Singapore, you may watch each swimming race — prelims and finals — stay on CBCSports.ca and CBC Gem. The finals start at 7 a.m. ET every day, beginning July 27. Here’s the full streaming schedule.
Summer McIntosh is anticipated to swim in these 5 particular person finals:
July 27: 400m freestyle
July 28: 200m medley
July 31: 200m butterfly
Aug. 2: 800m freestyle
Aug 3: 400m medley
She’s additionally anticipated to participate in some relays, although these should not set in stone.
This web page was created programmatically, to learn the article in its authentic location you may go to the hyperlink bellow:
https://www.cbc.ca/sports/the-buzzer-world-aquatics-summer-mcintosh-katie-ledecky-preview-1.7588366
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