New CalTech sheds gentle on habits of Sagaing Fault, which shares similarities to San Andreas Fault

PASADENA, Calif. (KABC) — A robust earthquake in Myanmar earlier this yr is main scientists to rethink how we predict future earthquakes.

A new study from CalTech sheds gentle on the habits of the Sagaing Fault, which is similar to the San Andreas Fault.

In March, a devastating, 7.7 magnitude earthquake in Myanmar killed 1000’s and brought about vital widespread injury. CalTech’s new examine utilizing satellite tv for pc photographs is revealing how the fault moved, and the large implications for locations like California.

“We take images before and after the earthquake and we match very accurately those images and we can measure the ground displacement,” stated Jean-Philippe Avouac, a professor of geology and mechanical and civil engineering at CalTech.

Researchers at CalTech discovered that the Sagaing Fault shifted greater than 500 km, far past what they thought was potential. This is a significant discovering because it suggests faults just like the San Andreas may produce bigger and extra complicated quakes.

“So this area was identified as a seismic gap, and they’re prone to producing a large earthquake,” stated Avouac. “It did happen, but it’s much longer than we expected. So what’s surprising is that the earthquake was able to re-rupture segments that ruptured in the ’30s.”

The analysis additionally challenges present fashions used to foretell earthquakes, that are based mostly on previous occasions. Instead, this examine means that earthquakes may not simply repeat what’s occurred earlier than, they may really launch rather more vitality, or be comprised of smaller clusters of quakes.

“Maybe the earthquake would rupture over a larger distance and could rupture the southern portion that hasn’t ruptured in a long time, so you had plenty of time to build up stress,” stated Avouac. “The message is that maybe the next earthquake would rupture the whole thing, or a sequence of smaller earthquakes, and it’s hard to tell.”

The examine is already reshaping how scientists take into consideration earthquake dangers and will result in not solely extra correct forecasting fashions, however how we are able to higher put together our infrastructure as effectively.