Spanberger lead over Earle-Sears narrows

Analysis

“The race for governor appears to be tightening, but Spanberger still leads,” mentioned Dr. Harry Wilson, interim director for IPOR and professor emeritus of political science at Roanoke College. “Many Republicans seem to have ‘come home’ to Earle-Sears since the May poll, but Spanberger’s voters are slightly more enthusiastic about voting and more certain of their vote.”

“The races for lieutenant governor and attorney general are both within the poll’s margin of error, suggesting the election is far from over. It should be noted that this poll was statistically weighted to match the 2021 Virginia exit poll, which was a good year for Republicans. In polls close to elections, IPOR weights to match the most recent relevant exit poll because it is a more objective standard than estimating which groups we think are more or less likely to vote.”

“With regard to President Trump, respondents appear to steadfastly  like or dislike him, regardless of the issue. They differentiate, however, between the parties when it comes to handling specific issues. As has been true for many years now, Republicans and Democrats appear to be living on different planets in terms of how they view politics, elected officials, and candidates.” 

Methodology 

Interviewing for the Roanoke College Poll was performed by the Institute for Policy and Opinion Research (IPOR) at Roanoke College in Salem, Virginia, between Aug. 11 and Aug. 15, 2025. A complete of 702 accomplished interviews got here from random phone calls and texts to 369 Virginians, and 333 responses had been drawn from a proprietary on-line panel of Virginians. Interviews had been performed in English. Cellphones constituted 66% of the finished cellphone and textual content to internet interviews.  

The cellphone sampling body was supplied by Marketing Systems Group with the landline pattern generated by random digit cellphone numbers with space and change code protection in proportion to the inhabitants density in Virginia; the mobile sampling body was randomly divided in order that half of the potential respondents would obtain a textual content message with an invite to finish the survey on their very own earlier than we’d name them, and the opposite half could be known as and interviewed over the cellphone by a stay agent and despatched a textual content message afterwards with an invite if the respondent was not obtainable after we known as. Cint USA, Inc, facilitated the net panel with completion time and a focus verify questions used for high quality management. IPOR commonly makes use of bootstrap evaluation of post-survey outcomes to manage for high quality throughout the blended frames.  

Questions answered by the pattern of 702 respondents are topic to a weighted margin of error (together with design impact) of plus or minus 4.30% at a confidence degree of 95%. This signifies that in 95 out of 100 samples such because the one used right here, the outcomes must be at most 4.30 proportion factors above or under the determine obtained by interviewing all Virginians with a house phone or a cellphone. For the pattern of 602 doubtless voters, the margin of error is 4.39%. Where the outcomes of subgroups are reported, the margin of error is greater. 

Quotas had been used to make sure that completely different areas of the commonwealth had been proportionately represented. The information had been statistically weighted for gender, race, age, schooling, and political social gathering. Weighting was completed to match the 2021 Virginia exit ballot. The design impact was 1.361 for the bigger pattern of 702, whereas it was 1.431 for the 602 doubtless voters.

A replica of the questions and all toplines could also be discovered right here.

More details about the Roanoke College Poll could also be obtained by contacting Dr. Harry Wilson, interim director for the Institute for Policy and Opinion Research, at [email protected] or the Roanoke College Public Relations Office at [email protected].  

roanoke.edu/IPOR