NBA Summer Forecast 2025-26: Predictions for each main NBA award

Which gamers will take residence some {hardware} for the NBA’s main awards this season?

Last season, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander grew to become the primary participant since LeBron James in 2015 to win Finals MVP and league MVP in the identical season. This season, it’s going to be one other tight race to the highest of the awards listing, not just for MVP however for different main awards as properly.

Highly-touted No. 1 choose Cooper Flagg is primed to take residence Rookie of the Year. But in a proficient rookie class, he is certain to face some challengers, together with San Antonio Spurs’ Dylan Harper, who can take residence the award for the franchise for the third season in a row.

Plus, preserve your eye on the race for Defensive Player of the Year, as final season’s front-runner, Victor Wembanyama, returns to the court docket after lacking the 65-game threshold for eligibility.

We requested our Summer Forecast panel — a gaggle of NBA consultants, together with reporters, editors and analysts — to rank its high three decisions for the NBA’s six main awards, with a first-place vote receiving 5 factors, a second-place vote receiving three and a third-place vote receiving one.

Here are the outcomes:

Note: Our 2025-26 NBA Summer Forecast continues Wednesday with win-loss predictions for the Eastern and Western conferences. On Monday, we revealed our picks for the groups that can have the largest turnaround this season and the groups that can drop off and answered a number of the season’s greatest questions.

Who will win NBA MVP?

1. Nikola Jokic, Denver Nuggets: 83 factors

2. Luka Doncic, Los Angeles Lakers: 62 factors

3. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Oklahoma City Thunder: 46 factors

T4. Giannis Antetokounmpo, Milwaukee Bucks/Anthony Edwards, Minnesota Timberwolves: 9 factors

5. Kevin Durant, Houston Rockets: 8 factors

Either voter fatigue wears off shortly, or voters had been very impressed by Nikola Jokic’s head-to-head battle with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander within the second spherical of the 2025 playoffs. The three-time MVP got here in as a heavy favourite to win for a fourth time in our preseason survey, virtually doubling the votes for SGA to repeat. Voters additionally gave the impression to be impressed by Luka Doncic’s offseason transformation because the svelte model of the Los Angeles Lakers level guard got here in second in early voting. Team success at all times performs a think about voting, which might be why SGA has slipped to 3rd right here. In different phrases, he already elevated the Thunder to a championship stage and was acknowledged because the MVP for doing it. But what if there’s even one other stage for him — and the youngest championship workforce in a long time — to succeed in? — Ramona Shelburne

Who will win NBA Rookie of the Year?

1. Cooper Flagg, Dallas Mavericks: 121 factors

2. Dylan Harper, San Antonio Spurs: 38 factors

3. VJ Edgecombe, Philadelphia 76ers: 25 factors

4. Kon Knueppel, Charlotte Hornets: 18 factors

5. Ace Bailey, Utah Jazz: 16 factors

Unsurprisingly, Flagg ran away with the voting: He’s the very best prospect on this class, brings NBA-ready versatility and is entering into what is going to possible be an necessary function on a workforce with playoff hopes and veteran expertise. This award tends to be in regards to the confluence of expertise and circumstance, and Flagg enters the league with an optimum mixture of each.

Harper and Edgecombe completed second and third, and each gamers may be extremely impactful as rookies. The query in each situations can be how huge a job they’ll carve out of their respective crowded backcourts, and whether or not that results in a large enough platform to mount a case for Rookie of the Year honors. On paper, Flagg has a serious leg up — for now. — Jeremy Woo

Who will win Defensive Player of the Year?

1. Victor Wembanyama, San Antonio Spurs: 95 factors

2. Evan Mobley, Cleveland Cavaliers: 31 factors

3. Chet Holmgren, Oklahoma City Thunder: 20 factors

4. Giannis Antetokounmpo, Milwaukee Bucks: 16 factors

5. Rudy Gobert, Minnesota Timberwolves: 14 factors

Deep vein thrombosis in his proper shoulder primarily robbed Spurs phenom Victor Wembanyama of successful his first NBA Defensive Player of the Year award final season as a result of the 21-year-old failed to satisfy the 65-game threshold for eligibility when he was shut down on Feb. 20. Despite enjoying in simply 46 video games final season, Wembanyama led the league in blocks (176) by a large margin over second-place finisher Brook Lopez (148 blocks). Plus, he averaged 1.1 steals for a Spurs protection that owned a defensive ranking of 115.4 with him on the ground (121.4 with out).

If Wembanyama performs in league-required 65 video games this season, it could be a shock if he did not snatch the award by a landslide forward of reigning DPOY Evan Mobley and different contenders reminiscent of Chet Holmgren, Giannis Antetokounmpo and Rudy Gobert.

A one-time DPOY winner, Antetokounmpo completed eighth in award voting final season forward of four-time winner Rudy Gobert, who completed thirteenth. Keep an eye fixed on how Milwaukee’s offseason addition of Myles Turner may release Antetokounmpo to unleash havoc on opposing offenses.— Michael C. Wright

Who will win Sixth Man of the Year?

1. Alex Caruso, Oklahoma City Thunder: 66 factors

2. Naz Reid, Minnesota Timberwolves: 52 factors

3. Nickeil Alexander-Walker, Atlanta Hawks: 39 factors

4. Payton Pritchard, Boston Celtics: 18 factors

5. Ty Jerome, Memphis Grizzlies: 17 factors

Will voters worth nuance over numbers? That must be the case for Alex Caruso to win this award this upcoming season.

This honor historically goes to a participant who gives on the spot offense off the bench. It has been three a long time for the reason that Sixth Man of the Year averaged single digits in factors, which has occurred solely thrice within the historical past of the award. Caruso’s affect in his first season in Oklahoma City, significantly in the course of the playoffs, is indeniable. But he averaged solely 7.1 factors per recreation in the course of the common season, when he obtained a single third-place vote to complete eighth in Sixth Man of the Year balloting. A major scoring enhance is unlikely for Caruso throughout his ninth NBA season as a job participant on a loaded Thunder roster.

The Thunder will proceed to fastidiously handle Caruso’s minutes (a mean of 19.3 in 54 video games final season), prioritizing the 31-year-old’s freshness for one more possible deep playoff run and offering developmental alternatives for younger guards reminiscent of Ajay Mitchell and Nikola Topic. But there may be precedent for dominant protection and contributing to a contender incomes this award, going again to the primary Sixth Man of the Year, Philadelphia’s Bobby Jones in 1982-83.

The 65-game minimal would not apply to Sixth Man of the Year, however a few gamers who completed excessive in ESPN’s balloting won’t be eligible for this award. Last season’s winner, Payton Pritchard, and Nickeil Alexander-Walker are sturdy candidates to be starters this season. — Tim MacMahon

Who will win Most Improved Player?

1. Amen Thompson, Houston Rockets: 59 factors

2. Andrew Nembhard, Indiana Pacers: 40 factors

3. Ausar Thompson, Detroit Pistons: 18 factors

4. Deni Avdija, Portland Trail Blazers: 14 factors

5. Jalen Johnson, Atlanta Hawks: 14 factors

Amen Thompson was a runaway winner on this class, as he’s slated to play a big function for a Rockets workforce with excessive expectations in 2025-26. Thompson can be coming into his third season within the NBA, having already taken a leap in Year 2, and he hasn’t even been a full-time starter but. He has already established himself as an elite defensive participant, making the All-Defensive workforce and is presently top-of-the-line on-ball defenders within the league. His offensive recreation confirmed indicators of enchancment within the playoffs, with higher handles and a jumper as he upped his scoring averages because the collection went on, giving the league a glimpse of what he can do on the opposite facet of the ball. That needs to be elevated, contemplating Thompson can be enjoying subsequent to Kevin Durant this season, a a lot better offensive centerpiece for Houston than it had final season. — Jamal Collier

Who will win Coach of the Year?

1. Jamahl Mosley, Orlando Magic: 48 factors

2. Quin Snyder, Atlanta Hawks: 24 factors

3. Ime Udoka, Houston Rockets: 22 factors

4. Mike Brown, New York Knicks: 21 factors

5. Mitch Johnson, San Antonio Spurs: 16 factors

Jamahl Mosley was tasked with growing the Magic when he was employed in 2021, and he obtained a younger core to 2 straight playoff appearances. But now, Mosley has a roster constructed to make a run at successful the injury-weakened East, and our panel is betting Mosley will captain a big leap ahead and take residence Coach of the Year honors. Orlando is poised to win greater than 50 video games for the primary time since 2010-11 with the additions of Desmond Bane’s much-needed scoring and out of doors taking pictures, and Tyus Jones’ regular level guard play to enhance Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner. Health can be very important, particularly Jalen Suggs’ means to return from left knee surgical procedure. Southeast division rival Atlanta, one other workforce that made vital offseason strikes, is anticipated to contend within the East this season, with coach Quin Snyder at its helm. — Ohm Youngmisuk