New Evaluation: The Albanese Government’s fossil gas approvals

Despite championing local weather motion in the course of the 2025 Federal Election, one of many re-elected Albanese Government’s first acts was the proposed approval of a 45-year extension of Woodside’s North West Shelf fuel export challenge – Australia’s second most polluting fossil gas extraction challenge.

Now, because the Albanese Government prepares to set Australia’s pivotal 2035 local weather goal, it has as soon as once more facilitated a flurry of fossil gas developments.

Fossil gas initiatives accredited in the course of the Albanese Government’s second time period:

In their first time period, the Albanese Government accredited 27 new coal, oil and fuel developments. The 4 new approvals this time period brings the entire to 31. 

Lifetime air pollution from these 31 initiatives, immediately and from combustion of the coal and fuel they produce, is predicted to exceed 6.5 billion tonnes of CO₂-e. That’s equal to about one-eighth of global annual emissions, about 15 years of Australia’s current emissions, or 159 years of the emissions from all of Australia’s automobiles and utes.

But there are much more initiatives searching for Federal authorities approval. There are at present 38 additional new or expanded coal mines searching for Federal Government approvals, with a possible lifetime manufacturing of over 5.7 billion tonnes of product coal – equal to greater than 14 years of Australia’s present coal manufacturing². These initiatives current a considerable threat to attaining each Australia’s local weather targets and global goals of keeping warming well below 2ºC.

Australia’s fossil gas exports are a globally-significant supply of air pollution

Australia is the world’s third-largest fossil fuel exporter primarily based on power content material, and the second largest by local weather air pollution content material. Each 12 months, Australia exports 2.5 tonnes of local weather air pollution for each tonne of air pollution launched in Australia. These emissions – irrespective of the place they’re emitted – hurt Australians by heating the worldwide local weather and exacerbating excessive climate occasions.

While most emissions from Australian fossil gas initiatives happen abroad, these initiatives additionally characterize a big drag on Australia’s home decarbonisation efforts. Fossil gas extraction is certainly one of Australia’s most polluting sectors. Fossil gas initiatives trigger important direct air pollution, each from the diesel used for equipment and vans, and the escape of ‘fugitive’ emissions beforehand locked in coal and fuel deposits. In 2035 the sector is predicted to emit 62 Mt CO₂-e, about 21% of our whole emissions, or greater than the emissions from each automotive, ute and truck in 2035.

A nationwide goal consists of all sectors. If the fossil gas export trade grows and takes up extra of our nationwide goal, it signifies that different sectors must do extra work in assembly that focus on.

Impact on Australia’s 2035 targets 

Since forming authorities in 2022, the Albanese Government has accredited coal, oil and fuel initiatives which might immediately emit 12.8 million tonnes of local weather air pollution in 2035, or 9.8 million tonnes if anticipated on-site abatement happens³. This air pollution influence is similar to all of Australia’s domestic flights in 2035, that are anticipated to launch 11 million tonnes of air pollution.

This excludes the emissions influence of 5 coal mines and 4 fuel initiatives the place proponent provided emissions information couldn’t be accessed. Disclosing anticipated emissions is just not required below the present EPBC Act. 

This air pollution will have an effect on Australia’s 2035 goal. Currently, the goal is predicted to be set inside a spread of a 65% to 75% discount on 2005 emissions, in-line with the Climate Change Authority’s (CCA) interim recommendation. The local weather air pollution from these developments is equal to 1.6 to 2.1 proportion factors in our eventual 2035 goal. 

Put merely, the start line for our 2035 emissions discount goal may very well be as much as two proportion factors greater (i.e. nearer to internet zero), had the Albanese Government adopted the clear scientific basis and stopped approving new and prolonged fossil gas manufacturing. The CCA has indicated it’s contemplating its goal recommendation on a ‘line-by-line’ basis, suggesting that the Albanese Government’s approvals are prone to weigh on its recommendation. 

The Safeguard Mechanism doesn’t neutralise these emissions

The Albanese Government has typically claimed that the local weather impacts of recent and expanded fossil gas initiatives are managed below the Safeguard Mechanism, and due to this fact innocuous. In actuality, the Safeguard Mechanism doesn’t tackle these challenge’s home emissions. 

This evaluation has included the influence of the Safeguard Mechanism, discovering it could solely scale back the local weather air pollution launched by these initiatives by lower than one-quarter in 2035. These new initiatives will nonetheless characterize greater than 9.8 million tonnes of CO₂-e emissions in 2035.

The Safeguard Mechanism doesn’t correctly tackle local weather air pollution from fossil gas initiatives. In actuality, it simply requires initiatives to offset the share of their air pollution which is above a sure ‘baseline’ stage. It by no means requires initiatives to scale back their precise on-site emissions.

Australia’s local weather legal guidelines don’t govern challenge approvals. The Safeguard Mechanism solely applies after a challenge is working, and there’s no federal legislation that enables a coal or fuel challenge to be stopped due to its local weather hurt.

That’s why the Safeguard Mechanism can’t be used as a justification for approving fossil gas initiatives. Every new coal and fuel growth provides extra air pollution — and extra local weather threat.

Fossil gas developments accredited below the Albanese Government

Approved coal initiatives:

Approved oil and fuel initiatives:

Offshore exploration permits issued:

9 exploration permits have been issued by the Resources Minister:

• Esso (ExxonMobil): 3x Otway Basin, 1x Sorell Basin
• Beach Energy – 1x Otway Basin
• Chevron – 1x Northern Carnarvon Basin (WA) 
• Melbana – 1x Northern Carnarvon Basin (WA) 
• Woodside – 1x Northern Carnarvon Basin (WA)
• Inpex – 1x Bonaparte Basin (NT)

¹ Total emissions over accredited challenge life in CO₂ equal phrases. Estimates primarily based on proponent paperwork – see appendix. Includes on-site emissions, emissions from coal or fuel combustion in Australia and abroad, and different oblique emissions.
² Black coal manufacturing, Australian Energy Statistics 2024, Table i
³ On-site abatement is estimated primarily based on present DCCEEW projections. By 2035, the Safeguard Mechanism is predicted to incentivise reductions in direct emissions from oil and fuel initiatives by 22.9%, and coal initiatives by 23.5% (together with each fugitive emissions and on-site power use). These projections are extremely unsure and primarily based solely on early post-reform information. Assuming this discount applies homogeneously throughout related initiatives in 2035 would cut back the influence on 2035 emissions by 0.5 proportion factors, to 1.6% of 2005 emissions.

Climate Council has launched a petition calling on the Australian Government to set the strongest doable 2035 local weather goal – and take pressing motion to fulfill it!