Indiana-Illinois and under-the-radar video games within the College Football Playoff hunt

Two groups are set to fulfill Saturday night time in entrance of a full-throated, sold-out crowd, with NBC broadcasting the sport to a nationwide viewers.

One staff made the College Football Playoff in 2024, and stays a lightning rod for response across the sport. The different received 10 video games final season, completed No. 16 within the AP ballot and returns an achieved group of stars on each side of the ball. Both coaches have received championships and particular person awards, together with a sweep of the 2024 nationwide teaching honors for one, and neither is boring behind a microphone. Both groups invested enormously of their quarterbacks, veteran transfers with NFL aspirations and are that includes two of the nation’s high move rushers. They enter this week ranked Nos. 13 and 16, respectively, in colleague Bill Connelly’s SP+ scores, forward of LSU, Michigan and others.

There are sufficient packing containers checked to put Saturday’s matchup on the nationwide radar, capturing curiosity from past the 2 fan bases, their shared area and even their stretched-out convention. But this is the twist: The groups are the Indiana Hoosiers and Illinois Fighting Illini. Indiana received a team-record 11 video games final season however nonetheless has probably the most losses (715) in FBS historical past. Illinois is searching for consecutive 10-win seasons for the primary time in staff historical past, in addition to its first AP high 10 end since 1989. Illinois-Indiana hasn’t been a matchup of ranked groups since 1950 — “I was shocked at that,” Illinois coach Bret Bielema mentioned — and Saturday will mark the primary sport of AP top-20 groups in Bloomington, Indiana, since 1987.

The pairing of groups won’t scream nationwide showcase, though the proof behind the pairing does.

“​​When a newbie like us breaks into the status quo, that’s going to create some waves,” Indiana coach Curt Cignetti informed ESPN. “A team [that] comes out of nowhere.”

Games like No. 9 Illinois visiting No. 19 Indiana on Saturday night time are taking up new and higher which means within the expanded College Football Playoff period. The final result in Bloomington will influence the Big Ten’s playoff pecking order, which Indiana cracked in 2024 however stays heavy with brand-name applications akin to No. 1 Ohio State, No. 2 Penn State and No. 6 Oregon, all CFP incumbents.

Those concerned in these matchups do not reduce their significance.

“Big,” Bielema mentioned of the Indiana sport this summer time. “Huge.”

But do mega matchups that includes, for lack of a greater time period, usually middle-class groups get the billing they deserve? Does the worth positioned on them differ due to their leagues or different components? What’s clear is that these kinds of video games are solely going to extend, as extra groups — no matter their historical past — are set to enter the CFP highlight.

“We don’t do a good enough job of talking about that next tier of teams,” Nebraska Cornhuskers coach Matt Rhule informed ESPN. “Illinois finishes 9-3 [last season] and they’re not in the same conversation as where I thought they should have been. If it’s not one of the premier names, people kind of downplay it a little bit.

“Sometimes, we simply do not acknowledge how good these subsequent groups are.”

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More under-the-radar games

For decades, the Big Ten operated under the “Big Two-Little Eight” label, as the league championship and a coveted Rose Bowl berth almost always came down to Ohio State and Michigan and their showdown in late November. Other teams began breaking the Buckeyes-Wolverines stranglehold in the 1980s — Illinois, Iowa, Michigan State — and the pattern continued into the 1990s with Wisconsin and Northwestern.

The past 25 years have included stretches when Ohio State or Michigan owned the spotlight — the Buckeyes won or shared five straight Big Ten titles beginning in 2005 and won four straight from 2017 to 2020, and Michigan followed with three straight conference championships and a national title in 2023. But other programs have had their moments, including Indiana’s incredible CFP run last season, Cignetti’s first as Hoosiers coach.

The challenge for attention and respect remains, though, for Big Ten teams without the historic brand recognition of Ohio State, Michigan, Penn State and USC, and more recently, Oregon. The SEC also has a group of heavyweights — Alabama, Georgia, LSU, Florida, Tennessee and now Oklahoma and Texas — but has more effectively promoted other teams with lower national profiles, such as Ole Miss, Texas A&M, South Carolina and Missouri.

“The largest factor in that league, you actually really feel empowered to speak about SEC soccer,” said Bielema, who coached Arkansas from 2013 to 2017. “From the path the commissioner offers you to the ADs to actually the media, they form of steer you down that, ‘We’re higher than all people else’ dialog. They actually imagine what they are saying, which is superior. I simply return to, the final two or three years have been totally different in [the Big Ten] due to parity, due to the competitors in our league.”

Big Ten commissioner Tony Petitti told ESPN that a goal of an expanded CFP proposal that’s heavier on automatic-qualifying spots — the so-called 4-4-2-2-1 model — is to reduce or remove the perception factor from matchups like Illinois-Indiana. Under the proposal, if the winner of Saturday’s game finishes third or fourth in the Big Ten behind two bigger-brand programs, it would automatically be in the CFP.

“They’re making an attempt to say, ‘Oh, your higher echelon’s this, and your center is that this, and your backside is that this,’ however let’s go determine that out by taking part in the video games and never burn these guys with the fame of what occurs whenever you lose a sport as a result of your program has been like this 10 years in the past, so subsequently, we do not provide the good thing about doubt,” Petitti told ESPN in July. “That stuff occurs, and we have got to get away from that.”

The remedy for respect is simple, coaches say: win the middle-class matchups and keep moving up.

“You have a look at what we did in 2019, going 11-2 and we had been ranked within the high seven within the nation,” Minnesota Golden Gophers coach P.J. Fleck said. “You get what you earn. When you are successful eight, 9 video games at Minnesota, that is actually good, however whenever you’re evaluating it to who’s within the playoff, it is not as excessive as that.”

Several Big Ten coaches noted that the locations and demographics of the two conferences also factor into how certain programs and matchups are viewed.

“That’s conditioning over time,” Rutgers coach Greg Schiano said. “Again, the saying, ‘It simply means extra,’ there’s some actuality to that, as everyone knows, due to location. That’s the one present on the town, proper? And I get that, and I perceive that, however on the finish of the day, it nonetheless comes all the way down to what occurs on the sector.”

Added Cignetti: “You get respect whenever you win.”

In addition to the Illinois-Indiana clash, here are six other games featuring teams with similar profiles that have CFP implications and will provide an interesting temperature gauge with national interest.

SATURDAY

What’s at stake: A potential leg up in a crowded Big 12 title race with several other contenders (Arizona State, Kansas State) already having a loss or two.

Why you should care: Any reputable list of best programs never to have made the CFP would include Utah, which won Pac-12 championships in 2021 and 2022 and had AP top-4 finishes in 2004 and 2008. The Utes’ entry into the Big 12 was spoiled by quarterback injuries, but they have fixed the position with dynamic dual-threat transfer Devon Dampier, who belongs on the Heisman Trophy radar after recording 628 passing yards, 198 rushing yards and 7 passing touchdowns in his first three games as a Ute. Texas Tech, meanwhile, won the offseason in the Big 12 with historic investments in its roster, courtesy of super booster Cody Campbell. The Red Raiders have said anything less than their first trip to the Big 12 championship game will be a disappointment. They’re off to a blistering start, outscoring their first three opponents 174-35.

What’s at stake: A Tulane win would cement the top nonleague profile for the Group of 5 CFP contender, while Ole Miss can help its (likely) CFP at-large résumé.

Why you should care: The matchup is outside of league play but still carries meaning for both sides. Tulane already has wins against Big Ten (Northwestern) and ACC (Duke) opponents, and can significantly increase its CFP chances by upsetting Ole Miss in Oxford. Jon Sumrall, a former Rebels assistant, likely will be the top Group of 5 coaching candidate this winter and could be choosing among SEC opportunities. Despite losing top running back Makhi Hughes to the transfer portal, Tulane is averaging 222 rushing yards per game, as BYU transfer quarterback Jake Retzlaff has settled in nicely, especially as a runner. Ole Miss had the talent to reach the CFP in 2024 but might make the field this season, as it averages 44.7 points and 541.7 yards per game. The Rebels’ next three SEC games are against LSU (home), Georgia (road) and Oklahoma (road), but a win over Tulane will help their case for the CFP.

OCT. 4

What’s at stake: A potential 5-0 start and increased attention as a dark horse CFP contender in the Big Ten.

Why you should care: Nebraska fans might bristle at being grouped with some of the others here, but their team has fallen sharply from its national perch. The Huskers ended a seven-year bowl-less streak last season and are eying a significant step forward under coach Matt Rhule, who has overseen Year 3 breakthroughs at Temple (10-4 in 2015) and Baylor (11-3 in 2019). Sophomore quarterback Dylan Raiola has looked very strong so far with eight touchdowns and no interceptions, while completing 76.6% of his passes. Michigan State also has seen development from its second-year starting quarterback Aidan Chiles, who has 656 passing yards and 6 touchdowns on 71.6% of his attempts. Both teams added transfer wide receivers to assist their quarterbacks. Nebraska first must get through Michigan, and Michigan State has a late-night kickoff at USC, but wins by both will add spice to this game.

OCT. 25

What’s at stake: A path to the CFP in the deep but seemingly wide-open SEC, and potentially the label of being this season’s Indiana.

Why you should care: The latest AP poll includes 11 SEC teams (five in the top 11), but no squad seems invincible, as Georgia, Tennessee and Texas A&M struggled defensively Saturday, while LSU is (ducks from Brian Kelly) still looking for a consistent run game. Texas, meanwhile, is trying to unlock quarterback Arch Manning’s potential. The number of CFP spots creates lanes for teams like Vanderbilt, which has consecutive 24-point road wins against Virginia Tech and South Carolina, and can dream bigger than it ever has with quarterback Diego Pavia at the helm. Pavia leads a balanced offense, and Nick Rinaldi headlines a playmaking defense that has 23 tackles for loss. Missouri has been closer to the CFP, going 24-5 since the start of the 2023 season with a top-10 finish and a Cotton Bowl title in 2023. The Tigers’ transfer additions of quarterback Beau Pribula and running back Ahmad Hardy are working out very well so far.

NOV. 1

What’s at stake: Possibly becoming this year’s version of SMU in the ACC, especially with preseason favorite Clemson struggling (thanks in part to Georgia Tech).

Why you should care: Georgia Tech’s latest big-game upset win Saturday against Clemson stamped the Yellow Jackets as a team to watch in the CFP chase. Coach Brent Key’s bunch has seven wins against ranked opponents as an underdog during his tenure. The problem for Georgia Tech has been winning games like this, which might fly under the radar a bit. NC State has already beaten two ACC teams — the Virginia victory didn’t count in the conference standings — and has a fairly manageable league schedule before hosting the Yellow Jackets. These teams feature two of the more exciting offensive backfield tandems in Georgia Tech quarterback Haynes King and running back Jamal Haynes, and NC State quarterback CJ Bailey and running back Hollywood Smothers.

NOV. 8

What’s at stake: An necessary November win that might catapult one staff towards the Big 12 championship sport.

Why you must care: The Big 12 contender pool is predictably deep, though the league in the end needs some separation to extend the probabilities for a number of CFP qualifiers. This week’s sport in Salt Lake ought to present some readability, and it is doable Iowa State and TCU are in numerous positions by the point they meet in Fort Worth, Texas. But ISU already has two wins towards Power 4 opponents and is 2-0 in highway or neutral-site video games. Quarterback Rocco Becht is finishing 65% of his passes with 7 touchdowns and only one interception, as he options tight ends Gabe Burkle and Benjamin Brahmer within the passing sport. The Cyclones’ protection is as soon as once more stifling, permitting 14.3 factors per sport and producing strain from totally different sources. TCU flexed in its opener at North Carolina, and quarterback Josh Hoover is finishing 76.2% of his passes and getting some assist in the backfield from UTSA switch Kevorian Barnes and others.