Faculty soccer Week 4 preview – DJ Lagway, Arch Manning attempt to get proper

You might say that Saturday brings the primary act of the 2025 school soccer season to an in depth.

Next week, we’ll get a few mammoth helmet video games — Oregon at Penn State, Alabama at Georgia — and convention play will probably be totally underway. We’ll head into October speaking lots about playoff implications and the hierarchy among the many sport’s high groups.

First, nevertheless, we have now to tie up some free ends. We get one other week to determine which of a giant group of hyped-but-struggling quarterbacks — Texas’ Arch Manning, Clemson’s Cade Klubnik, Florida’s DJ Lagway, LSU’s Garrett Nussmeier — will steer out of a present skid. We get an enormous Illinois-Indiana sport (simply an incredible mixture of phrases there). We get a matchup of two of the Big 12’s finest and meanest groups to this point (Texas Tech at Utah). We get former Sooners quarterback Jackson Arnold and Auburn heading to Norman in a battle of SEC unbeatens. And we get one other huge week within the Group of 5, with American Conference unbeatens Memphis and Tulane getting photographs at SEC upsets and bold groups resembling UNLV, North Texas and Boise State going through huge street exams.

At the beginning of the school soccer season, 11 groups had at the very least a 2% probability of profitable the nationwide title, per the Allstate Playoff Predictor. Three weeks in, there are 13. Nothing has been even barely determined by way of three weeks, and the door for chaos might open even additional this weekend. Before we get to the second act of 2025, this is every little thing it is advisable to comply with in a loaded Week 4.

All occasions Eastern.

Jump to a bit:
Scuffling QBs | Indiana-Illinois
Big 12 headliner | SEC eliminators?
G5’s huge weekend | Week 4 playlist
Small-school showcase

Which disappointing quarterback can rally?

Despite some chaotic undertones, the season has gone roughly as we thought it would. Among the highest 9 groups within the preseason SP+ rankings, six are nonetheless there, and the three others (Texas, Notre Dame, Michigan) have not precisely plummeted. Some groups have dissatisfied early on, however few seasons are fully misplaced.

For a quartet of quarterbacks, nevertheless, we’re approaching now-or-never territory: Either begin wanting such as you had been presupposed to look or chalk up 2025 as a spectacular disappointment.

Florida at No. 4 Miami (7:30 p.m., ABC)

If DJ Lagway threw solely three interceptions in opposition to LSU, the Gators may need scored an upset. That’s a constructive, proper? He as a substitute threw 5 in a 20-10 loss, however the Florida protection nonetheless gave the Gators an opportunity. It has allowed solely 38 factors in three video games.

The offense has scored solely 26 in two FBS video games. Opponents aren’t afraid of the run sport, receivers don’t get open, and Lagway is growing some fairly excessive tendencies in passing to particular areas of the sphere (as evidenced by all of the inexperienced “completion” dots alongside the suitable sideline on this chart):

Four of Lagway’s six 2025 interceptions have come on third-and-long, and a fifth got here in a last-ditch drive in opposition to LSU. He’s attempting desperately to make one thing occur, and it is bringing out some horrible tendencies.

Miami quarterback Carson Beck has been good, and he has gotten the assistance Lagway hasn’t, from his offensive line and his receivers. But the Florida protection might make this one fascinating if Lagway can take what he is given by a Miami protection that ranks 83rd in yards allowed per dropback.

Current line: Miami -7.5 | SP+ projection: Miami by 10.6 | FPI projection: Miami by 7.2

Syracuse at Clemson (midday, ESPN)

Like Lagway, Clemson’s Cade Klubnik has carried out far worse than anticipated and has gotten little assist from his castmates. Syracuse has a historical past of overachieving in opposition to Clemson, however the Orange have the worst-rated FBS protection remaining on the Tigers’ schedule. If Clemson’s offense, at present 96th in factors per drive, would not get going now, when may that occur?

The Orange blitz an excellent quantity, and blitzing has harm Clemson due to a banged-up offensive line and a less-than-scary run sport. Klubnik is getting hit lots and throwing numerous passes in need of the sticks. The timing of the offense is off, and the Tigers cannot afford to endure one other convention loss earlier than they begin to determine issues out. The return of veteran receiver Antonio Williams, listed as possible for Saturday, cannot harm.

Current line: Clemson -16.5 | SP+ projection: Clemson by 9.2 | FPI projection: Clemson by 9.6

Southeastern Louisiana at No. 3 LSU (7:45 p.m., SECN)

With all correct respect to Southeastern Louisiana — the Lions are seventh in FCS SP+ with a loss to solely Louisiana Tech — I’m guessing that LSU stays unbeaten Saturday. Now’s an excellent time to begin repairing an LSU offense that ranks simply 112th in factors per drive.

Garrett Nussmeier has essentially the most tenable place on this listing; his group is unbeaten, and he is thirty seventh in Total QBR — not what was anticipated however far greater than anybody else right here. His primary subject is that he is enjoying it protected. The LSU run sport is likely to be even worse than it was final 12 months, the offensive line is committing too many penalties, and Nussmeier is throwing principally fast passes to maintain the practice transferring. His 65% completion fee is strong, however his common yards per completion has fallen from 12.0 (fairly low) to 10.0 (terribly low).

LSU’s line ought to maintain up in opposition to SELA — if it would not, yikes — so will probably be fascinating to see if Nussmeier begins wanting additional downfield. Now’s the time to construct some higher habits.

SP+ projection: LSU by 33.0 | FPI projection: LSU by 34.9

Sam Houston at No. 8 Texas (8 p.m., ESPN+)

Going by projections, Texas has the simplest sport on this listing. But Arch Manning may also be essentially the most damaged QB. After exhibiting potential progress in Week 2, Manning accomplished simply 11 of 25 passes for 114 yards, a landing and an interception in opposition to UTEP. The Miners principally rushed solely 4 defenders and compelled Manning to work by way of progressions; he took eternally to throw and was ceaselessly inaccurate.

Manning is 124th out of 136 QBs with a 55.3% completion fee, and he is 133rd in common time to throw (3.28 seconds). Meanwhile, his 14 dropbacks in opposition to man protection have netted 13 whole yards. His working backs are harm, his line is not nice, his receivers don’t get open sufficient and he is throwing inaccurate passes. If the Texas offense would not get proper in opposition to a dreadful Sam Houston protection, it may not occur.

Current line: Texas -39.5 (down from -41.5 on Sunday) | SP+ projection: Texas by 40.0 | FPI projection: Texas by 37.7

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Shades of 1950 in Bloomington

No. 9 Illinois at No. 19 Indiana (7:30 p.m., NBC)

On Oct. 28, 1950, “Goodnight Irene,” carried out by The Weavers, was dominating the airwaves. “All About Eve,” starring Bette Davis and that includes a younger Marilyn Monroe, was in theaters. SMU was No. 1 within the nation, Bear Bryant’s Kentucky was No. 4 and stay school soccer wasn’t discovered on nationwide tv.

It was a very long time in the past, is what I’m saying. And it was the final time Illinois and Indiana met as ranked foes. In that sport, the No. 12 Fighting Illini rode spectacular line play to a 20-0 win over the No. 19 Hoosiers. History hasn’t been type to both program since. But that has shifted of late.

Curt Cignetti’s Hoosiers and Bret Bielema’s Illini are a mixed 27-5 because the begin of 2024, and although neither has performed an opponent ranked greater than sixty fifth in SP+, each are within the high 15 in factors and factors allowed per drive this season. They’re treating iffy opposition like glorious groups are presupposed to.

Both groups dominate within the Little Things division — crimson zone, discipline place, turnovers — and each boast environment friendly offenses with dominant receivers: Indiana’s Omar Cooper Jr. has 299 yards and 4 TDs, whereas Illinois’ Hank Beatty has caught 19 of 20 passes for 289 yards and a TD. Each protection has allowed a number of huge performs, however they’re each nonetheless giving up 4.6 or fewer yards per play.

We know that blue bloods get the most effective TV rankings, however these two groups have earned this prime-time slot. The computer systems and sportsbooks lean towards Indiana — and albeit, it is odd that Illinois is ranked 10 spots greater within the polls — however it might be a shock if this one did not go right down to the wire.

Current line: Indiana -6.5 (up from -4.5) | SP+ projection: Indiana by 3.9 | FPI projection: Indiana by 3.1

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A Big 12 headliner in Salt Lake City

No. 17 Texas Tech at No. 16 Utah (midday, Fox)

If you’re taking preseason projections out of the equation — a horrible concept if you need predictive accuracy, however an intriguing approach to have a look at efficiency to this point — Texas Tech can be first in SP+ and Utah can be eighth. The Red Raiders have overwhelmed three unhealthy opponents by a mean rating of 58-12, and the Utes lead the Big 12 in early overachievement, topping SP+ projections by a mean of 13.7 factors per sport. On Saturday, one in every of these groups will rating an enormous early Big 12 win.

Tech’s protection offers up fairly a number of huge performs, whereas Utah’s offense, as is customary, would not make many. The Utes rank first in dashing success fee, however so does Tech’s protection. Defensive tackles A. J. Holmes Jr. and Skyler Gill-Howard have eaten up inside run blockers, however the Utah line is without doubt one of the most confirmed within the nation, and quarterback Devon Dampier and RBs NaQuari Rogers and Wayshawn Parker maintain Utah on schedule.

Even with big leads in every sport, Texas Tech has handed greater than 35 occasions per sport at a quick tempo. The Red Raiders are third in yards per dropback, and Behren Morton is finishing 70% of his passes at 16.2 yards per completion. Receiver Coy Eakin’s early numbers (245 yards at 20.4 per catch) are scary.

As you’d count on, nevertheless, Utah’s cross protection seems good, too: eighth in completion fee, ninth in interception fee, twenty fourth in yards per dropback. The Utes have given up a number of extra third-and-long conversions than anticipated, and if that is still a problem, Tech may by no means hand over the ball. Regardless, there are strength-versus-strength matchups in every single place. This sport will probably be awfully enjoyable.

Current line: Utah -3.5 | SP+ projection: Utah by 1.9 | FPI projection: Utah by 3.8

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SEC elimination(ish) day

As with Indiana-Illinois within the Big Ten, the SEC has a few big video games amongst groups that are not essentially convention title contenders — although, we do not know for certain but — however are jockeying for 10-2 information and potential CFP bids.

No. 22 Auburn at No. 11 Oklahoma (3:30 p.m., ABC)

Oklahoma’s ridiculously back-loaded schedule — six of its ultimate seven opponents rank seventeenth or greater in SP+ — meant that the Sooners would wish a quick begin. So far, so good. They’re 3-0 with a win over Michigan regardless of an offense that is still a piece in progress. Quarterback John Mateer is likely to be the present Heisman betting favourite, however the run sport averages simply 4.3 yards per carry (not together with sacks), and the Sooners have fumbled 5 occasions with numerous passes damaged up. Their 5 turnovers (104th nationally) have not come from unhealthy luck.

Still, Mateer is creating huge performs along with his arm, and 4 Sooner cross catchers are on tempo for 50-plus receptions. Plus, the OU protection would not want a ton of assist — the Sooners rank fourth in factors allowed per drive and third in yards allowed per play.

They’re additionally sixth in dashing success fee allowed, and that is likely to be an important quantity in opposition to Auburn. The Tigers are working the ball a ton, with the combo of working again Jeremiah Cobb and quarterback Jackson Arnold carrying a heavy load. They’re avoiding must-pass conditions — which doomed Arnold as OU’s QB in 2024 — however they will doubtless face some Saturday afternoon, and we’ll be taught if Arnold has improved a bit of or lots from final 12 months’s disastrous marketing campaign.

Current line: OU -6.5 | SP+ projection: OU by 7.4 | FPI projection: OU by 3.8

South Carolina at No. 23 Missouri (7 p.m., ESPN)

Missouri is one in every of simply 16 groups to overachieve in opposition to SP+ projections in all three video games, and the Tigers are as much as eleventh in SP+ due to it. The offense seems nice due to a trio of transfers: quarterback Beau Pribula (on tempo for 3,100 passing yards), working again Ahmad Hardy (1,800 dashing yards), and receiver Kevin Coleman Jr. (1,000 receiving yards).

South Carolina has the primary top-50 protection (per SP+) the Tigers have confronted, although the Gamecocks bought labored over by Vanderbilt’s environment friendly assault final week in a jarring 31-7 loss. They do not hand over many huge performs, however they rank 73rd in success fee. Mizzou’s offense ranks twelfth.

The South Carolina offense noticed loads of offseason hype, however it has been an absolute dud, scoring simply 5 touchdowns in three video games and rating 123rd in factors per drive. Receivers Nyck Harbor and Donovan Murph are averaging 21.6 yards per catch, however at solely 4 catches per sport. Quarterback LaNorris Sellers has grow to be much more sack-prone — I in all probability ought to have put him on the disappointing QBs listing above — and this week, he has needed to work by way of concussion protocol whereas getting ready to face a Mizzou protection that grades out in addition to or higher than Vandy’s.

Shane Beamer’s Gamecocks are projected favorites in solely two extra video games this season. Either they get again on monitor instantly or 2025 veers into “Lost Season” territory.

Current line: Mizzou -10.5 (down from -12.5) | SP+ projection: Mizzou by 13.7 | FPI projection: Mizzou by 9.5

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Another big weekend for the Group of 5

The race for the Group of 5’s assured playoff spot might see some twists this week, with two main hopefuls (Memphis and Tulane) getting photographs at SEC upsets, and three others — UNLV, North Texas and Boise State — all going through tough street journeys.

Arkansas at Memphis (midday, ABC)

Memphis has appeared superior early and will get AAC opponents South Florida, Tulane and Navy at house. SP+ offers the Tigers a 36% probability of ending 11-1 or higher. Quarterback Brendon Lewis and working again Sutton Smith (in for the injured Greg Desrosiers Jr.) lead an environment friendly offense, and the protection has crushed unhealthy offenses (together with a Troy offense that misplaced its beginning QB early on).

Arkansas’ offense, nevertheless, is as explosive as ever, because of quarterback Taylen Green, working again Mike Washington Jr. and receiver O’Mega Blake. The Razorbacks could possibly be a everlasting track-meet group because of a shaky protection, however Arkansas is able to repeatedly profitable these monitor meets, too.

Current line: Arkansas -7.5 | SP+ projection: Memphis by 0.5 | FPI projection: Arkansas by 2.4

Tulane at No. 13 Ole Miss (3:30 p.m., ESPN)

It’s exhausting to determine how good Tulane truly is. The Green Wave made runs of 27-0 in opposition to South Alabama and 24-3 in opposition to Duke however let each opponents again into the sport. Jake Retzlaff is eleventh in Total QBR, however the run sport strikes backward lots. The protection is a turnover machine, however it’s inefficient in any other case. Against whichever Ole Miss QB holds the reins — the injured Austin Simmons or backup Trinidad Chambliss, who destroyed Arkansas — the Green Wave will want much more stops than they have been making. Ole Miss’ run protection has been damningly unhealthy, however the Rebels in all probability have an excessive amount of firepower for Tulane to snag a 3rd power-conference victory.

Current line: Ole Miss -13.5 | SP+ projection: Ole Miss by 17.5 | FPI projection: Ole Miss by 13.8

UNLV at Miami (Ohio) (midday, ESPNU)

After a tough begin in opposition to Idaho State in Week 0, Dan Mullen’s UNLV has begun to look the half, and SP+ offers the Rebels a 14% probability of attending to 11-1 or higher. Anthony Colandrea is fifth amongst G5 quarterbacks in Total QBR, each RB Jai’Den Thomas and WR Jaden Bradley are on tempo for 1,000-yard seasons, and the protection has at the very least stabilized a bit.

Miami was outscored 62-17 by Wisconsin and Rutgers, however the RedHawks gave up virtually no huge performs, and with explosive quarterback Dequan Finn and receivers Keith Reynolds and Kam Perry on offense, they might make UNLV’s lengthy street journey awkward.

Current line: UNLV -2.5 | SP+ projection: UNLV by 8.4 | FPI projection: UNLV by 3.3

North Texas at Army (midday, CBSSN)

In two house video games, quarterback Drew Mestemaker and North Texas have overachieved in opposition to SP+ projections by a mixed 77.6 factors. In their lone street sport, the Mean Green practically misplaced to No. 122 Western Michigan. They’ll must play much better in West Point in opposition to an Army group that certain appeared like Army once more in Week 2’s upset of Kansas State. Quarterback Cale Hellums rushed for 124 yards and led 5 drives of double-digit performs in Manhattan, Kansas, and if Hellums stays regular transferring ahead, Army will probably be a large ache for any AAC group with CFP aspirations. Like North Texas.

Current line: North Texas -2.5 (flipped from Army -2.5) | SP+ projection: Army by 2.2 | FPI projection: UNT by 0.2

Boise State at Air Force (7 p.m., CBSSN)

Boise State’s season-opening faceplant at USF, mixed with an upcoming journey to Notre Dame, eliminated all margin for error. The Broncos will doubtless have to comb Mountain West play to have any hope of a CFP bid. Of course, they’re projected favorites in each MWC sport, they usually nonetheless have huge expertise with working again Sire Gaines, defensive sort out David Latu, edge rusher Jayden Virgin-Morgan and security Ty Benefield.

Air Force has been a ache for BSU loads of occasions, and the Falcons nonetheless dominate the ball. But the protection bought torched by Utah State final week. Not an encouraging signal.

Current line: BSU -10.5 | SP+ projection: BSU by 10.6 | FPI projection: BSU by 11.2

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Week 4 chaos superfecta

We’re as soon as once more utilizing this area to will chaos into existence, taking a look at 4 rigorously curated video games with fairly huge level spreads and mashing them collectively into a way more upset-friendly quantity. Our profitable streak ended final week when Miami, Ole Miss (barely), Alabama and Auburn all received. But we’re nonetheless 2-for-3 on the younger 12 months, and now it is time to transfer to 3-for-4!

Sticking with this week’s “Anatomy of a mid-major upset” theme, SP+ says there’s solely a 38% probability that Washington (88% win likelihood in opposition to Washington State), Cal (80% in opposition to San Diego State), Colorado (75% in opposition to Wyoming) and BYU (72% in opposition to East Carolina) all win. Let’s take down a power-conference group!

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Week 4 playlist

Here are some extra video games it is best to comply with if you wish to get absolutely the most out of the weekend, from each info and leisure views.

Friday night

Iowa at Rutgers (8 p.m., Fox). In concept, few matchups scream “ROCK FIGHT!!” like Iowa-Rutgers, however Rutgers is ninth in factors per possession and 83rd in factors allowed per possession. Iowa has little big-play potential, however the Hawkeyes have moved the ball effectively in opposition to mortal defenses. So, possibly this one is not destined to complete 7-6 or 5-3 or one thing.

Current line: Iowa -2.5 | SP+ projection: Rutgers by 0.2 | FPI projection: Rutgers by 1.6

Tulsa at Oklahoma State (7:30 p.m., ESPN). At the second, that is the final sport by which OSU is a projected favourite. Either the Cowboys use this as a spectacular get-right sport after their 66-point humiliation at Oregon in Week 2 — or there’s (extra) ache on the horizon in Stillwater.

Current line: OSU -12.5 | SP+ projection: OSU by 9.8 | FPI projection: OSU by 11.0

Early Saturday

SMU at TCU (midday, ESPN2). The Battle for the Iron Skillet! Few groups have underachieved in opposition to SP+ projections greater than SMU by way of three video games; possibly a rivalry sport will get up the Mustangs. If not, TCU’s big-play offense might have a number of enjoyable in opposition to an SMU protection that has given up a great deal of chunk performs.

Current line: TCU -6.5 | SP+ projection: TCU by 7.4 | FPI projection: TCU by 4.7

UAB at No. 15 Tennessee (12:45 p.m., SECN). Trent Dilfer’s third UAB group has been the identical “solid offense, no defense” squad as his previous two. If Tennessee continues to be reeling from final week’s heartbreaker in opposition to Georgia, the Blazers may land a punch or two, however not 60 minutes’ value.

Current line: Vols -38.5 | SP+ projection: Vols by 37.0 | FPI projection: Vols by 36.4

Maryland at Wisconsin (midday, NBC). Per SP+, Wisconsin has solely a 26% probability of reaching bowl eligibility this season, because of a schedule that already featured one high opponent and has 5 extra to go. Lose to Maryland, and people odds fall to mainly nil. At least it feels like injured quarterback Billy Edwards Jr. — previously a Terrapin — could possibly be able to go.

Current line: Wisconsin -9.5 (up from -7.5) | SP+ projection: Wisconsin by 0.4 | FPI projection: Wisconsin by 5.1

Saturday afternoon

No. 21 Michigan at Nebraska (3:30 p.m., CBS). Two years in the past, Nebraska was on the mistaken finish of a 45-7 blowout loss to Michigan at house. Now, on paper, the Huskers have mainly a 50-50 shot at taking down the Wolverines and scoring their greatest win since, what, 2015 (39-38 over No. 7 Michigan State)?

Current line: Michigan -1.5 | SP+ projection: Nebraska by 1.1 | FPI projection: Nebraska by 0.1

Purdue at No. 24 Notre Dame (3:30 p.m., NBC). Well, Notre Dame, it is time to begin scoring some model factors. After losses to Miami and Texas A&M, the Irish should win out to have severe hope of a CFP shot, they usually may need just one extra real marquee win alternative — USC in Week 8, and that is provided that the Trojans preserve their present kind. So, it is time to wreck some opponents. (Purdue may need one thing to say about that. Especially if the Irish protection would not begin defending.)

Current line: ND -26.5 | SP+ projection: ND by 20.4 | FPI projection: ND by 20.3

NC State at Duke (4 p.m., ESPN2). Duke has allowed 18 positive aspects of 20-plus yards (tied for 122nd nationally). NC State has given up eight of 30-plus (tied for 114th). With State’s Hollywood Smothers and Wesley Grimes and Duke’s Nate Sheppard and Cooper Barkate, this could possibly be an incredible sport to be an explosive ability corps man.

Current line: Duke -3.5 | SP+ projection: NC State by 1.2 | FPI projection: NC State by 0.1

North Carolina at UCF (3:30 p.m., Fox). I don’t know about both of those groups. Bill Belichick’s UNC has collected itself since its embarrassing Week 1 loss to TCU, and UCF has been adequate in Scott Frost’s first two video games again on the town. But something from a 35-point UNC win to a 35-point UCF win would not shock me.

Current line: UCF -7.5 | SP+ projection: UCF by 7.0 | FPI projection: UCF by 11.2

Temple at No. 18 Georgia Tech (4:30 p.m., The CW). Temple could make some huge performs and will make issues messy if Georgia Tech lets its guard down after final week’s huge win over Clemson. The Yellow Jackets have not given us any purpose to assume that is doable, although. (By the best way, they’re projected favorites of their subsequent eight video games.)

Current line: Tech -23.5 | SP+ projection: Tech by 21.6 | FPI projection: Tech by 18.9

Oregon State at No. 6 Oregon (3 p.m., BTN). Three weeks into the season, Oregon has risen from seventh to second in SP+ whereas OSU has fallen from seventy fifth to 107th. We might want to conjure a lot of Weird Rivalry Magic to make this one fascinating.

Current line: Oregon -34.5 | SP+ projection: Oregon by 40.1 | FPI projection: Oregon by 36.3

Saturday night

Arizona State at Baylor (7:30 p.m., Fox). Arizona State lastly checked into the 2025 season, placing away a spirited Texas State group with relative ease final week. Now, the close-game pageant that’s Big 12 Play begins in opposition to a Baylor group that may have reworked its season with Week 2’s wild comeback win over SMU.

Current line: Baylor -2.5 | SP+ projection: Baylor by 3.8 | FPI projection: Baylor by 0.8

West Virginia at Kansas (6 p.m., FS1). Kansas bought every week to get better after a blown lead and a rivalry loss to Missouri; WVU is driving the crest of a giant comeback and a rivalry win over Pitt. Who’s prepared to maneuver previous the emotion and begin the remainder of their season? I’m fairly certain Kansas continues to be good, and WVU’s offense may need lastly begun its season late in opposition to Pitt.

Current line: Kansas -13.5 | SP+ projection: Kansas by 7.1 | FPI projection: Kansas by 9.7

BYU at East Carolina (7:30 p.m., ESPN2). ECU has overachieved in opposition to SP+ projections by practically three touchdowns per sport. The Pirates could possibly be good. And they get to offer BYU’s freshman quarterback Bear Bachmeier his first huge street take a look at. But the Pirates should rating on BYU’s protection, which is first in factors per drive and yards per play.

Current line: BYU -6.5 | SP+ projection: BYU by 9.5 | FPI projection: BYU by 6.0

Washington at Washington State (7:30 p.m., CBS). Washington State was spectacular in its 36-13 runaway win over San Diego State in Week 2. Then, the Cougs went to North Texas and bought completely blasted 59-10. Week 2 Wazzu and a torrid Martin Stadium would make this awfully tough for Washington. Week 3 Wazzu … wouldn’t.

Current line: UW -20.5 | SP+ projection: UW by 18.6 | FPI projection: UW by 21.0

Southern Miss at Louisiana Tech (7:30 p.m., ESPN+). From 2021 by way of 2024, every of those proud previous mid-major packages went 14-35 with an SP+ rating of about 112.5. Now, each are 2-1 with at the very least a 60% probability of bowl eligibility. Can Southern Miss quarterback Braylon Braxton engineer sufficient factors on a Tech protection permitting 12.3 factors per sport?

Current line: Tech -3.5 | SP+ projection: Tech by 7.8 | FPI projection: Tech by 3.7

Late Saturday

Michigan State at No. 25 USC (11 p.m., Fox). A kickoff at 11 p.m. ET for a group based mostly in Eastern Time? Cool. Makes good sense. Anyway, USC is averaging 55 factors per sport and 9.6 yards per play, and Michigan State has topped 40 factors for 2 straight video games. I do not assume the Spartans have the protection to make this a sport for 60 minutes, however this might have Pac-12 After Dark vibes for some time.

Current line: USC -17.5 (up from -14.5) | SP+ projection: USC by 17.7 | FPI projection: USC by 24.2

California at San Diego State (10:30 p.m., CBSSN). Quarterback Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele and Cal are 3-0 and projected favorites within the subsequent six video games. But they’re 94th in third-down conversion fee, and SDSU’s protection ranks seventh. If the Aztecs can rating a bit (not a given), they might make this one tough.

Current line: Cal -12.5 | SP+ projection: Cal by 13.2 | FPI projection: Cal by 10.9

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Smaller-school showcase

Let’s as soon as once more save a shout-out for the wonderful decrease ranges of the game. Here are three video games it is best to monitor.

Division III: No. 16 Wisconsin-Whitewater at No. 6 Mary Hardin-Baylor (midday, local streaming). These packages lorded over Division III for practically 15 years earlier than getting surpassed by North Central. Both are nonetheless gifted and harmful, they usually’re assembly for the seventh straight season (not together with 2020). UWW has produced a 200-yard rusher in every of its first two video games, however a 3rd straight, in opposition to the Crusaders’ protection, can be a shock.

SP+ projection: Whitewater by 1.2

Division III: No. 3 Johns Hopkins at No. 4 Susquehanna (1 p.m., FloFootball). The second D-III sport on the listing is even greater: JHU backed up its top-five standing with a 27-13 win over No. 20 John Carroll final week and boasts the second-best protection in D-III, per SP+. Susquehanna, in the meantime, ranks fifth on offense. It is likely to be North Central vs. The Field in D-III, however both of those groups might make a deep playoff run.

SP+ projection: Susquehanna by 0.3

FCS: No. 23 New Hampshire at Dartmouth (1 p.m., ESPN+). An extremely fascinating Ivy League season lastly opens Saturday: The league champ will take part within the FCS playoffs for the primary time, and at first look, it seems like we have now a three-team race amongst Harvard, Yale and a Dartmouth group that will get a right away shot at a résumé win of kinds. UNH practically beat Ball State final week — it was truly a little bit of an upset that the Wildcats did not — and boasts one of many stingier defenses the Big Green assault will see all season.

SP+ projection: Dartmouth by 1.7

(One sport you should not monitor? Rio Grande at Ferris State. That’s the second-worst group in NAIA, per SP+ — pronounced “Ry-Oh Grand” and positioned in the identical Ohio city as the primary Bob Evans restaurant — going through the category of Division II. SP+ tasks Ferris State as a tidy 97.2-point favourite. The ultimate rating will probably be regardless of the Bulldogs need it to be. If morbid curiosity will get the most effective of you, it kicks off at 3 p.m. on FloFootball.)