Fun With Numbers: Superior stats preview of Auburn at Texas A&M

Howdy and welcome again to Fun With Numbers, the place we dive into what superior stats say about Texas A&M and their upcoming opponent. We have been somewhat delayed this season with the Aggies taking part in a few tune-up video games first, however now each the nice guys and their opponents have performed at the very least 3 video games, so we will begin trusting somewhat extra within the stats we’re seeing. As a reminder, in case you have no concept what superior stats are, or what any of these items means, you could wish to try a glossary just like the one right here to familiarize your self with a few of the fundamentals. Things just like the SP+ and FEI are opponent adjusted, and whereas the opposite fundamental stats are usually not, they do exclude rubbish time. Let’s get to it.

The Aggies enter the sport 3-0 following a bye week and face an Auburn group that’s coming off their first lack of the season, a 24-17 battle in Norman. This is the primary of a 3-game house stretch for the Ags, who’ve a shiny Top 10 rating and a variety of expectations mounting after their final second win towards Notre Dame in South Bend. Vegas has A&M as a 6.5 level favourite, with Bill Connelly’s SP+ predicting a 5 level Aggie win and the FEI predicting a 6 level Aggie win. So everybody expects a good one at Kyle Field this Saturday, let’s dive in somewhat deeper.

Aggie Offense vs Tiger Defense

Few issues within the final decade of Aggie Football have been as heartwarming because the early returns on this offense. A revamped receiving corps, a veteran OL, a assured QB, and Year 2 of Collin Klein calling performs have made an actual distinction. It’s not excellent but, the secure of high quality backs hasn’t confirmed to be AS harmful as you may count on early within the season, and Reed’s skill to get the ball to his guys out in area rapidly is typically overshadowed by his inaccuracy. But the explosive potential they’ve proven thus far, paired with Reed’s skill to keep away from stress, makes this group a lot extra thrilling to observe than something for the reason that early Sumlin days.

They face a stout protection this week although, led largely by a extremely robust DL that controls the road of scrimmage and brings stress on opposing QBs. The again finish of this Tiger Defense is so much much less secure although, they’re liable to giving up large performs each on the bottom and thru the air and regardless of a reasonably skilled secondary, opponents are having a simple sufficient time throwing the ball.

Aggie Defense vs Tiger Offense

Through 3 video games in 2025, the Aggie protection has been a reasonably combined bag. They’ve been superb at forcing groups into Passing Downs (seventh within the nation), however have clearly had points with opposing groups getting free on the bottom for giant yardage. They’ve been pretty environment friendly, and in addition good at creating havoc within the Front 7 (regardless of changing a variety of manufacturing on the DL), however when groups do make it down the sphere, they have an inclination to attain on this group (Aggies rank a hundred and twentieth in Points/Opportunity and 92nd in Red Zone Scoring Percentage).

It’s Year 3 for Coach Freeze, and the Auburn Offense has but to essentially discover its footing. It’s improved yearly within the SP+, and there are a variety of items to love, however I feel their exhibiting final week towards OU proves they nonetheless have a methods to go. A receiving corps of Coleman, Simmons, and Singleton feels prefer it ought to be way more explosive than what they’ve been thus far, and Arnold is way extra accountable for final week’s insane sack rely than the offensive line. That stated, Arnold’s legs are going to proceed to be an issue for defenses that battle with containment (howdy, Aggies) and the working again play has been fairly good thus far. The potential is there, they simply haven’t fairly been capable of put it collectively but.

Another week, one other spherical of “This is the real test” posts on the apps and message boards. And I get it. It’s attainable that this Auburn protection finally ends up being higher than the 2025 model of the Fighting Irish protection, and a cellular QB with athletic WRs ought to scare any protection, particularly one just like the Aggies the place they’ve proven some vulnerability on the again finish. And on the one hand, I’m somewhat involved concerning the A&M offense stalling for basically the primary time all season the identical method Oklahoma’s did (and never having the ability to depend on some questionably authorized trick play to get factors on the board) whereas the protection can’t get off the sphere towards an environment friendly dashing assault.

My prediction: For me although, I belief these receivers and Reed to make performs occur towards a secondary that has been extraordinarily gentle all season and although getting double-digit sacks might be a pipe dream… I feel Arnold’s timing remains to be off. If Elko can correctly gameplan to maintain him within the pocket like Venables did, I don’t suppose he’ll out of the blue begin hitting large performs down the sphere. I additionally suppose there’s a likelihood particular groups performs a giant half on this one, the Aggie return group is harmful and Auburn has had points.

I just like the Aggies to win 30-23.

Glad to be again right here at GBH, and hope to maintain posting because the season goes on. Please see the under websites the place my stats come from.

Questions? Comments? Criticisms? You know the place to depart ‘em.