Antarctica’s message to the world: scientists sound alarm on excessive occasions and tipping factors – British Antarctic Survey

29 September, 2025 Press releases

London, 29-30 September 2025 – Scientists assembly on the Royal Society in London this week are issuing a stark warning: dramatic and excessive modifications in Antarctica are occurring sooner than anticipated, with penalties that can have an effect on everybody on the planet.

From collapsing ice cabinets and record-low sea ice to highly effective storms and threats to fragile ecosystems, researchers will describe how Antarctica, typically seen as distant and untouched, is reaching harmful tipping factors that might speed up world heating, elevate sea ranges, and disrupt climate patterns worldwide.

Opening the two-day assembly, Professor Dame Jane Francis, Director of British Antarctic Survey (BAS) will remind the viewers that: “What happens in Antarctica affects us all.”

Why Antarctica issues for all of us

• Extreme climate: The Southern Ocean surrounding Antarctica absorbs many of the extra warmth brought on by greenhouse fuel emissions. This is already fuelling extra highly effective storms, heatwaves, and rainfall globally that disrupt lives far past the polar areas.

• Ecosystems loss: Crucial species resembling krill – the hub of the Antarctic meals chain – and deep-sea coral and sponge habitats are beneath menace. These ecosystems assist fisheries, biodiversity, and even regulate the planet’s carbon steadiness.

• Rising seas: If Antarctic ice sheets cross key thresholds, sea ranges might rise by greater than 10 metres over the approaching centuries, threatening coastal cities, communities, and infrastructure throughout the globe, together with the UK.

• A glimpse into the long run: Evidence from the previous reveals change originating in Antarctica could unfold quickly, typically inside many years, with probably devastating penalties globally.

A name for pressing motion

The scientists harassed that the dangers posed by Antarctica’s fast modifications are now not distant or theoretical. Extreme occasions are already changing into extra frequent and extreme, and the opportunity of crossing irreversible tipping factors is rising.

Professor Michael Meredith from the UK National Climate Science Partnership and an oceanographer at BAS, who will chair the primary day of the assembly, says:

“Antarctica is changing faster than we ever imagined. These changes are already affecting communities and ecosystems worldwide. Urgent action to cut greenhouse gas emissions and strengthen resilience is essential if we are to avoid crossing dangerous thresholds.”

The assembly referred to as “Global impacts of climate extremes in the polar regions: is Antarctica reaching a tipping point?” will talk about how stronger hyperlinks are wanted between Antarctic science and world coverage, so governments can higher put together for the dangers, defend future generations and assist us all adapt to our altering world.

BAS oceanographer Kate Hendry has been key in bringing everybody collectively for the assembly. She says:

“We urgently need to understand these unprecedented extreme events in Antarctica if we’re going to make robust predictions of future change. The processes behind these extreme events, and any tipping points, are not incorporated well into computer models at the moment, so our forecasting ability is not good enough.”

The Royal Society will publish a full abstract of the discussions, highlighting probably the most urgent gaps in our present data and the steps wanted to answer the challenges forward.

Key scientific insights introduced included:

• The Southern Ocean’s crucial function in local weather regulation 
  Dr Karina von Schuckmann (Mercator Ocean, France) highlights that the Southern Ocean absorbs as much as three-quarters of Earth’s extra warmth from greenhouse fuel emissions. This warmth uptake is reshaping world circulation patterns, melting Antarctic ice, and amplifying excessive climate worldwide.
• Extreme occasions within the cryosphere 
  Professor Michael Bentley (Durham University, UK) opinions current collapses of Antarctic ice cabinets, abrupt snowfall anomalies, and new proof of cascading interactions between ice, ocean, and ambiance.
• Abrupt sea ice decline 
  Professor Alexander Haumann (Alfred Wegener Institute, Germany) presents proof that the dramatic fall in Antarctic sea ice since 2016 marks a long-term state shift, pushed by anthropogenic warming and complicated ice–ocean processes.
• Atmospheric extremes with world implications 
  Dr Kyle Clem (Victoria University of Wellington, New Zealand) explains how “atmospheric rivers” – slender bands of heat, moisture-laden air – are more and more driving record-breaking heatwaves, rainfall, and soften occasions throughout Antarctica.
• Ecosystem dangers
  Dr Jennifer Freer (British Antarctic Survey, UK) and Dr Michelle Taylor (Ocean Census/University of Essex, UK) emphasises that excessive occasions threaten keystone species resembling Antarctic krill and fragile deep-sea sponge and coral habitats, with profound penalties for fisheries, biodiversity, and carbon biking.

  Lessons from the previous Ice core and paleoceanographic research introduced by Professor Sarah Woodroffe (Durham University, UK), Dr Thomas Bauska (British Antarctic Survey, UK), and Dr James Rae (University of St Andrews, UK) reveals that previous heat durations triggered fast Antarctic ice loss and multi-metre sea stage rise – typically in simply centuries and even many years.

• Policy and adaptation challenges 
  Sessions led by Chandrika Nath (SCAR), Dr Rachel Cavanagh (British Antarctic Survey), and Professor Tamsin Edwards (King’s College London) underscore the pressing want for science-based recommendation to information the Antarctic Treaty System, fisheries administration, and nationwide adaptation planning.

  Dr Matt Palmer (Met Office Hadley Centre, UK) warned that poorly understood Antarctic tipping factors might drive greater than 10 metres of sea-level rise by 2300, with main implications for UK coastal defences.

About the Royal Society

The Royal Society is a self-governing Fellowship of most of the world’s most distinguished scientists drawn from all areas of science, engineering, and drugs. The Society’s basic objective, because it has been since its basis in 1660, is to recognise, promote, and assist excellence in science and to encourage the event and use of science for the advantage of humanity. 

About Royal Society Scientific Meetings

The Royal Society hosts a programme of scientific meetings annually. Each assembly is organised by a small crew of scientists with a shared analysis curiosity. These scientists are leaders of their fields. The deal with dialogue all through every assembly permits all attendees to contribute to the dialog and share their concepts and analysis with friends within the scientific group.