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Gas provide on Australia’s east coast is anticipated to enhance within the first quarter of 2026, however the outlook nonetheless is dependent upon how a lot uncontracted gasoline LNG producers resolve to export, based on the ACCC’s newest gasoline inquiry report launched right this moment.
The report signifies a gasoline provide surplus of between 2 and 24 petajoules (PJ) is anticipated for the east coast, relying on what the LNG producers resolve to do with their uncontracted gasoline.
“The Queensland LNG producers have reported a reduction in contracted LNG exports, and now expect to have 22 PJ of uncontracted gas available in the first quarter of next year,” ACCC Commissioner Anna Brakey mentioned.
“Given ongoing concerns about sufficiency of domestic gas supply, the ACCC will be monitoring whether and how this gas is offered to domestic buyers.”
“Despite the improvement, the supply-demand outlook remains tight in the southern states,” Ms Brakey mentioned.
“For the first time, southern gas producers are not expecting to produce surplus gas in the first quarter of the year, when demand is usually at its lowest. This may create challenges for fully replenishing southern gas storage facilities ahead of winter 2026.”
Regional supply-demand outlook for quarter 1 2026 (PJ)
Source: ACCC evaluation of information obtained from gasoline producers in July 2025 and of the home demand forecast (Step Change situation) from AEMO, Gas Statement of Opportunities (GSOO), March 2025.
Note: Totals could not sum on account of rounding. The amount required to satisfy long-term LNG SPAs consists of feed gasoline necessities (similar to gasoline) required to provide LNG. LNG producers’ uncontracted gasoline has been zeroed out when unfavourable as this gasoline have to be acquired from the home market, both as extra gasoline manufacturing, purchases or a discount in exports which might have a web 0 impression on the forecast.
Gas suppliers and customers have signed extra long-term provide offers thus far this yr, for provide in 2026 and 2027.
But the report discovered, regardless of this, the overall quantity of gasoline secured underneath these contracts stays beneath ranges seen earlier than 2022. Most of the contracts are for just one yr.
Prices provided by gasoline producers for 2026 provide eased within the first half of 2025, falling by a mean of two per cent to $13.12 per gigajoule (GJ) in comparison with the second half of 2024. In comparability, costs provided by gasoline retailers for 2026 provide averaged $14.33/GJ.
For 2027, the typical worth underneath producer contracts was $13.93/GJ, whereas retailer contracts averaged $14.30/GJ. Suppliers contracted a complete of 18 PJ of gasoline for 2026 provide, and 21 PJ for 2027.
Gas coverage measures haven’t made a fabric distinction for native customers
The report additionally reviewed the impression of the Gas Market Code (Gas Code), the Commonwealth Heads of Agreement with LNG exporters (HoA) and the Australian Domestic Gas Security Mechanism (ADGSM), following the ACCC’s preliminary observations reported in June 2025.
The ACCC has discovered these measures could have added some gasoline to the native market, however, general, they haven’t materially improved outcomes for gasoline customers.
“There are limits to what the gas policy measures can achieve on their own if the underlying causes of inadequate supply and ineffective competition are not addressed,” Ms Brakey mentioned.
“In addition, they may also be having some unintended incentive effects and causing inefficiencies in gas supply negotiations.”
The ACCC’s assessment has discovered that the 2023 reforms to the ADGSM seem to have decreased LNG producers’ incentives to make a web contribution to the home market.
These modified incentives seem to have had the unintended consequence of exacerbating the chance of home provide shortfalls.
Further, because the 2022 HoA was entered into, the volumes of gasoline being provided and equipped by the LNG producers to the home market have declined over time, whereas LNG export volumes have elevated.
The ACCC’s submission to the Gas Market Review outlines the ACCC’s expertise and observations arising from the inquiry to tell authorities consideration of reforms to advertise longer-term gasoline market effectivity and measures to make sure that, within the interim, the Code, ADGSM and HoA are match for goal.
Background
In 2017, the Australian Government directed the ACCC to conduct a wide-ranging inquiry to enhance transparency of the gasoline market in Australia and assist its environment friendly operation, and to observe gasoline provide. On 29 August 2025 a new direction was made to formally prolong the inquiry to 2030 and to determine quarterly reporting.
The ACCC’s subsequent interim report is scheduled for December 2025
This web page was created programmatically, to learn the article in its unique location you possibly can go to the hyperlink bellow:
https://www.accc.gov.au/media-release/east-coast-gas-supply-outlook-eases-for-first-quarter-2026
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